3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 4

[Thundery wintry showers]

Worst of all worlds here in Norwich- a slow, partial thaw with sleety stuff occasionally falling on top of the snow, and the inevitable overnight refreeze will lead to horrible icy stuff for the week ahead. But the media will be loving it because "at least it's milder".

Winter isn't over yet by any means though. Easterlies are normally a good direction for snow in Norfolk- just for whatever reasons, the combination of the North Sea, higher dewpoints etc. turned this particular event marginal despite 850hPa temperatures close to -10C. More snow events are still possible during this coming week.

However, I'd still take sunshine and showers of powder snow (even if we missed most of the showers) over this coming week's outlook any day.

[Archie_Lewis]

Here comes the thaw........

Drip drip drip......

Snow fading on my decking, can see bits of path that you couldn't yesterday!

I have not bothered looking at radar only BBC weather!

In terms of snow falling today? Where the hell is it?

Thought I would try old fashioned way and look out of window instead of radar! But nothing seems to be happening! Oh well!

[Andy H]

Worst of all worlds here in Norwich- a slow, partial thaw with sleety stuff occasionally falling on top of the snow, and the inevitable overnight refreeze will lead to horrible icy stuff for the week ahead. But the media will be loving it because "at least it's milder".

Winter isn't over yet by any means though. Easterlies are normally a good direction for snow in Norfolk- just for whatever reasons, the combination of the North Sea, higher dewpoints etc. turned this particular event marginal despite 850hPa temperatures close to -10C. More snow events are still possible during this coming week.

However, I'd still take sunshine and showers of powder snow (even if we missed most of the showers) over this coming week's outlook any day.

TWS what is your take on that lot in the North sea at the moment? very slow moving do you think it will hit any of our region i suppose the later it hits the better because at least temps should be dropping

[Macey]

Hm, the system coming across the North Sea does seem to be fading away fairly fast. At this rate the showers will be light and widespread.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It will hit us, but with cloud cover and high dewpoints temps won't be dropping much- expect a lot of wet snow that doesn't settle.

[billy]

Rising here in northampton too. now +2. I always thought easterly winds brought low temperatures and snowfall. Why isn't this happening?

I think its because weve lost the cold upper air temps and the north sea is still relatively warm. I think thats why easterlies are usually better in feb because the sea is cooler . Yesterday we still had -10 uppers over us but today we have -8 uppers . Still getting lots of brief light snow showers here this morning so maybe it will still be snow when the main band reaches us later. Just a pity the temps are a little to high for it to settle now.

[huntso]

Won't notice a thaw here, haven't had anything to watch go

Most dissappointing spell of weather I can remember for this part of the world. Wasted far too much time on here and totally fed up with waking up expectantly to find nothing

Still it should cut the heating bills a bit and no more scraping the car

Au revoir for now from a miserable damp St Ives

[Hammer]

The alignment of the front through the night was NE through to SW as it moved across the region (draw a line from Norfolk to IoW for example). PPN was light, temps/dp's a fraction higher than ideal, meant sleet, light rain, some snow flurries for some as you can see was/is reported during this thread.

The PPN was so light it did not show on radar but it was/is happening. The models suggested the PPN to be heavier but still in a NE / SW alignment, hence why the Essex, Kent, Sussex locations were more at risk.

This is an example of where so much data available to a forecaster and reliance on the model data, caused errors to be made in judgement of what was actully developing. There needed to be some nowcasting and checking of local conditions in the region live last night by these forecasters, hence why we got the forecasts on TV last night which were at the very top end of what could have happened, but we should have seen a reassement made sooner.

All in all Met Office and for example BBC and Sky should be hugely dissapointed with their performance.

And this is what Met Office posted a littler earlier.

THE EARLY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DISRUPTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY.

[billy]

Hm, the system coming across the North Sea does seem to be fading away fairly fast. At this rate the showers will be light and widespread.

Indeed , the metoffice have now cancelled the warning for heavy snow for pretty much the whole country now. You have to ask why they could get this so wrong at such a short time scale.

[simon65]

Indeed , the metoffice have now cancelled the warning for heavy snow for pretty much the whole country now. You have to ask why they could get this so wrong at such a short time scale.

i dont think the meto ,sky or any other type of media outlet are the only ones to get it wrong ,a lot on here predicted snow ,and i think someone on here actually said sleet or rain was forcasted today by one of the channels on tv

and if you look on the meto weather charts im sure that front that passed us going north is a dry line ,i might be wrong there

Edited January 10, 2010 by simon65

[Mr.Plow]

Quite frustrating here in Norwich, the most continous time I have seen the snow fall during the day and we are about a degree to warm!

And as TWS said Norwich managed to miss many of the showers. (As we did in December as well)

So near and yet so far.

[simon65]

[Hammer]

i dont think the meto ,sky or any other type of media outlet are the only ones to get it wrong ,a lot on here predicted snow ,and i think someone on here actually said sleet or rain was forcasted today by one of the channels on tv

Simon the Met Office and media in terms of providing interpretation, need to be making sure they don't get it wrong. That is after all what they are responsible for.

Those on here who detailed snow, based this on the rather more limited data that is available to them, which indicated snow was likely.

However it was detailed on here sooner than media that things were not transpiring they way they were expected in terms of heavier PPN/snowfall.

[simon65]

Simon the Met Office and media in terms of providing interpretation, need to be making sure they don't get it wrong. That is after all what they are responsible for.

Those on here who detailed snow, based this on the rather more limited data that is available to them, which indicated snow was likely.

However it was detailed on here sooner than media that things were not transpiring they way they were expected in terms of heavier PPN/snowfall.

i was pointing out that someone did infact say sleet was forcasted on the tv !

to much time wasted on people wanting snow or they throw their rattles out of the pram on here ,bye people

Edited January 10, 2010 by simon65

[billy]

i dont think the meto ,sky or any other type of media outlet are the only ones to get it wrong ,a lot on here predicted snow ,and i think someone on here actually said sleet or rain was forcasted today by one of the channels on tv

and if you look on the meto weather charts im sure that front that passed us going north is a dry line ,i might be wrong there

Hi Simon, yes you are right. Doesnt give you any confidence in their 3 day forecast or their 6-15 day outlook though does it ? Who knows maybe this time next week we will be back to sunshine and snow showers again. I dont think they really have a clue what will happen this coming week . Regards Billy

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the Met Office backtracked at the last moment and said "sleet or snow".

I won't continue blowing my own trumpet because in fact, I got the forecast for today wrong. Looking at temperature readings across the country as a whole, it hasn't been as marginal as I expected- for most, it's been too warm! Osbourne One-Nil in upland Cumbria is getting 2.6C, and South Shields is at 5.1C, both about 2C higher than I was expecting.

Interestingly that makes Norwich one of the coldest areas of the UK- it may be warm side of marginal for maintenance of snow cover, but it is still cold enough for snow to fall from the sky.

Regarding Norwich missing out, either the urban heat island kicked in or showers hit UEA more heavily than the main city of Norwich, as I got up to 12cm here at one stage which isn't bad at all.

[lizzieloo202]

You have to ask why they could get this so wrong at such a short time scale.

Been asked and answered about a million times on this forum this weekend. Getting boring now.

[Hammer]

i was pointing out that someone did infact say sleet was forcasted on the tv !

Mainstream media (as in what most likely the population at large might have seen), late last night were still indicating snowfall up to 20cm for the at risk areas Kent etc, despite realtime analysis even by the most "unknowledgeable" indicating PPN were not as heavy as predicted.

It does concern me that even with more detailed data, they still did not fully understand / detail what was happening. Whilst the general public might not give a jot. I am sure many on here, are a bit baffled at the poor interpreation of data Met Office pro's were making.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the Met Office were trying to cover their backside. The extent of this warm air has taken everyone, including myself, by surprise, and clearly the Met Office's models underestimated it.

[Mr.Plow]

Regarding Norwich missing out, either the urban heat island kicked in or showers hit UEA more heavily than the main city of Norwich, as I got up to 12cm here at one stage which isn't bad at all.

I am being picky as we have had lots of snow fall overall, just not as much during the daytime as I would have liked. I have been waiting for a big short sharp burst rather than a cumulative effect.

Now we have radar and can easily get reports from other areas It's easier to feel let down.

If you had asked me at the start of the winter if I would take this I would have bitten your hand off!

Been snowing for hours off and on, beautiful to watch.

I think the Met Office were trying to cover their backside. The extent of this warm air has taken everyone, including myself, by surprise, and clearly the Met Office's models underestimated it.

Is it mainly due to the weather direction? Winds were predicted to have been more straight easterly than we have had.

Edited January 10, 2010 by HomerJ

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's possible, because the stronger the northerly component to the wind, the longer the track over the North Sea. This isn't a problem in a sunshine-and-snow-showers setup with no hint of marginality like we had late last week, but whenever we get a marginal setup it can make the difference between a few inches of additional snow and a slushy mess.

[Steve C]

That was a miserable Country Tracks forecast. Mostly cloudy, windy and cold, with temperatures suggesting a slow thaw through the week.

What I find a bit irritating is the lack of concensus in long range forecasting. Weatheronline are saying it's going to become average, or even mild at the end of this week and into the weekend, with no mention that confidence is low etc., whereas the BBC synoptic chart for Friday certainly didn't indicate the inevitability of mild weather pushing through.

[Jason T]

afternoon people, just got this fom met office HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN ENGLAND VALID FROM 11.25AM TODAY TILL 11.59 PM. (:whistling:WHERE IS IT)

[bluearmy]

afternoon people, just got this fom met office HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN ENGLAND VALID FROM 11.25AM TODAY TILL 11.59 PM. (:whistling:WHERE IS IT)

i think you'll find they have cancelled it if you look again.

[billy]

Been asked and answered about a million times on this forum this weekend. Getting boring now.

Yes but to be fair they have been quite accurate for my area up until last nights/todays fiasco.