3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 4

[Let_it_snow]

On and off showers of snow in Norwich........but all previous laying snow is starting to melt!

[Snow Obsession]

Well some might be surprised but my forecast still looks ok. Some will remember I did say the main action for us will be Sunday evening into Monday morning and this remains the case.

During this afternoon the winds veer E,ly and this will bring heavier precip into the region. Based on the model runs I would say W parts of this region are likely to do best from this especially NW parts of this region. The reason for this is heavier precip and further away from the coast.

The only downside is the ENE,ly did bring slightly higher temps than I thought and less precip last night. However my current temps are 1C and my DP has finally dropped to 0C. So away from the E coast much of the precip will fall as snow later on.

Thanks for that TEITS! Is there any chance of South Bucks getting anything - I think we may be west enough but possibly too far south? Very IMBY I know but am getting a bit depressed!

[billy]

Much less cold here on the Suffolk coast this morning with temperatures slowly rising. Already at 2.3C, from 1.7C at 7am, and the snow is thawing steadily, aided by recent rain showers.

Hi Paul , weve had five brief showers here this morning but all of snow. Temps are above freezing .Do you think when the precipitation arrives later it could help bring the temps down a bit ? Regards Billy

[ickledoozer]

Hmmm.

As with my question posed, the more experienced, kmowledgeable members have gone quiet.

I seems the good old British weather has 'stumped em all'

No one is to blame, I suppose the weather is just always going to remain one of natures trump cards!!

Enjoy the Slush/overnight ice

If you want to know why then check out the "general model output discussion" thread, the knowledgeable members are not so quiet in there. Also, please think before you post.

Edited January 10, 2010 by ickledoozer

[Snow Obsession]

My husband just came in and said 'Nice day!' without a trace of sarcasm - grrrrr!

[Senator Blue]

I disagree. Spent the last few weeks monitoring the progress across east anglia. Threads being posted every few seconds on occassion. Now I am expected to monitor two threads. What was happening south of the Thames has little relevance as to what affects EA as a whole. Seems that most other organisations keep Essex with this sector of the country.

I suppose hard luck mate you are stuck with it.

H

I don't think it really matters, just post in the thread that suits your needs. Suffolk was also lumped in with London and SE originally, but most of us posted in EA so it moved. I've seen plenty of posts in this thread from those in North Essex.

Paul B - Costa del Sizewell gulf stream has now reached Kesgrave, turning sleety.

Phew....back to snow.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Senator Blue

[Timmytour]

Well some might be surprised but my forecast still looks ok. Some will remember I did say the main action for us will be Sunday evening into Monday morning and this remains the case.

During this afternoon the winds veer E,ly and this will bring heavier precip into the region. Based on the model runs I would say W parts of this region are likely to do best from this especially NW parts of this region. The reason for this is heavier precip and further away from the coast.

The only downside is the ENE,ly did bring slightly higher temps than I thought and less precip last night. However my current temps are 1C and my DP has finally dropped to 0C. So away from the E coast much of the precip will fall as snow later on.

TEITS...just to repost your forecast from a couple of days ago...

Posted 08 January 2010 - 22:26

Right i've had a look at the models and I have a rough idea of what will happen. Im sure everyone is familiar with the Met O radar and I shall use this as a guide for the intensity of the snowfall.

The fun and games begin during Saturday evening. Now intially for much of Saturday evening/sunday morning our precitation is going to be mainly light (blues on Met O radar). Now the reason the SE could see heavier snowfall is due to the ENE,ly flow enhancing the snowfall, although the NAE has backed off somewhat of heavy snow in the SE. Now during Sunday afternoon the wind veers to the E and what the models are suggesting is the heavier snow moves N. This again is due to the winds veering E,ly meaning the snowfall is enhanced due to the long fetch across the sea. Now the 18Z actually moves this snow as far N as N England but based on all the runs I have seen our region looks likely to see heavy snow. This heavy snow is likely to continue into Sunday night before we see this becoming lighter. Again the reason for this is due to the winds veering SE,ly so we lose the effects of the N sea.

Overall very difficult to predict snowfall amounts but this period does look likely to bring persistant snow. Now even if it falls at 1cm an hr the fact that we could see 24/36 hrs of snow makes large snowfall amounts possible. I do feel that snowfall amount could vary hugely across the region because whilst some are experiencing blue patches on the radar others could see spells of green. Im afraid its a case of radar watching.

I will finally add that the NAE/GFS indicate rather widespread light snow tomorrow contrary to the BBC forecasts.

I think and hope this forecast is proving to be more accurate than some of the variety served up by the BBC over the last day and a half. I think you quite clearly state that amounts could vary within the region and I think that some of us in Herts are in "prime spots" to get very little out of this

[PB22]

Hi Paul , weve had five brief showers here this morning but all of snow. Temps are above freezing .Do you think when the precipitation arrives later it could help bring the temps down a bit ? Regards Billy

Hi Billy,

Any heavier precipitation could help bring the temps down a touch, but I wouldn't hold my breath at this stage to be honest. Dew points are forecast to slowly rise today too across our patch:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs098.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs158.html

With temperatures around 3C or 4C around the coastline:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs154.html

[Habsish]

I don't think it really matters, just post in the thread that suits your needs. Suffolk was also lumped in with London and SE originally, but most of us posted in EA so it moved. I've seen plenty of posts in this thread from those in North Essex.

Dear Senator Blue,

Thanks. It is my intention to post on this thread as well.

Regards

H

[Mrsf16]

Just to update whats happnening here, have had a massive thaw overnight, taken away all that I woke up to yesterday and more besides, think imby i may now be looking at 3 - 4 mm laying now in the thickest parts. Some grey ish cloud cover but no precip. Really thought last night was the biggy......

[janetmh71]

Have had a little rain overnight and this morning . . temp is currently 2.2c so slightly up on midnight last night . . dew point is 0.2 . . . wind here is very light at 5mph although wisbech which is 5 miles away has winds around 15mph

What is peoples opinion on what will fall out of this cloud that seems to be marching slowly towards EA?? Looks like around the wash is the only place that current ppn is really falling as rain.

Janet

[i luv snow]

Well showers are still snow here in Ipswich!

Anyway, the first point to clear up, we will all see the ppn, there's no doubt about it - let's hope it's snow, as the winds veer more E instead of NE this will help the temps. There is a huge area of ppn heading for us, but its VERY slow.. It won't be here until later today. But when it gets here it will be very slwo moving, so as long as we see snow then this will certainly help with the depths. The clump of ppn to the NE of Norfolk is only a small part of the massive system heading this way - check out NSea radars etc!

[ickledoozer]

There has been a steady thaw here since yesterday evening, temperature currently +1.6c with a dewpoint of -4c.

Lots of snow sliding off cars and roof tops and the unwelcome drip, drip drip of ice melting. I fear my really big icicle is going to make a break for it too!

[Mrsf16]

Apparantly "Big fat flakes, loads of em" in Oakham, Rutland

[Timmytour]

Dear Senator Blue,

Thanks. It is my intention to post on this thread as well.

Regards

H

The big question is....will these threads still be running in a few days time anyway B)

[BucksSnow]

will high wycombe buckinghamshire see any snow today

[GarethK]

The thaw started last night, as per my previous post. Last night i heard the dripping off the roofs aswell. Fail to see how this easterly is going to bring us any snow of any significance, it wont settle, and as on previous occasions any ppn will fail to materialise in Norwich or surrounding areas. This has very much been a real event for those in southern central and the SE, it made sense to split this thread because i could not follow the original no matter how hard i try, and i've been on forums for years!

Hoping next week will bring some mildness, get rid of this horrible slushy, dirty powdery stuff we have, let me get some work done as being self employed i rely on the weather to be reasonable. As much as i love snow, its annoying me now.

[i luv snow]

It is snowing in Ipswich at the moment despite nothing on the radar! I have been reliably told that in the early hours we had rain, hence the slight thaw - back to snow now though! B)

[billy]

Hi Billy,

Any heavier precipitation could help bring the temps down a touch, but I wouldn't hold my breath at this stage to be honest. Dew points are forecast to slowly rise today too across our patch:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs098.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs158.html

With temperatures around 3C or 4C around the coastline:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs154.html

Thanks Paul , its not looking very good then . A bit disappointing really after the last 2/3 days here. Still when was the last time we saw lying snow for the first ten days of January in our region ? Lets hope for a reload of the cold soon . Plenty of time left this winter. Regards Billy

[bluearmy]

the only precip headed our way has left holland. without a northerly component in the windflow, this will only really affect the northern parts of this area. be careful what you wish for!! the flow will turn more easterly and this will head for the midlands/norfolk northwards. doesnt look too heavy though.

at this time, i cant see too much precip over the next few days in the home counties. 5cms absolute max in the next 24 hours and dry beyond that.

[i luv snow]

Bluearmy, no disrespect, but have you seen the HUGE area of ppn moving over the North Sea, Holland, Germany - looking at the British Isles radar will not show you the huge extent of it. All heading this way...

[Mrsf16]

Another friend who lives less than a mile away (SE of me) reporting DRIZZLE

[matt69l]

A bit of a heatwave here this morning. Temps already up to 1.8C and all our lovely snow is melting and most of the icicles have fallen off our roof. So much for this so called severe winter, we had one fall of snow in December which lasted a few days and then melted and one fall last Tues/Weds which has lasted just a few days and is now melting!

[saint]

What the heck happened. :(

[cooling climate]

A bit of a heatwave here this morning. Temps already up to 1.8C and all our lovely snow is melting and most of the icicles have fallen off our roof. So much for this so called severe winter, we had one fall of snow in December which lasted a few days and then melted and one fall last Tues/Weds which has lasted just a few days and is now melting!

Now that has got to be the silliest post I have read in a long time.