South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[snow drift]

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

I would disagree with you. I feel that it will keep moving N/E although it will lose its intensity. I also feel that less places will see snow for any amount of time before this reverts to rain. High areas will be at most risk clearly. The areas that could do well are the cotswolds going into the midlands. Time will tell. What is sad is that this memorable spell is coming to an end. Still 50 days or so left of the winter so here's hoping for more.

[03jtrickey]

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

Personally I think it will stop 1.6 miles SW of Yatton!

[kent]

One of the best things about the UAE is that come Wednesday morning it has a westerly 850 wind, but still maintains the easterly at ground level, thanks to the shortwave that even the UAE develops to some extent, the GFS more still though.

The above helps to keep the snow down to even lower levels in the SW.

ATM the models are very much showing a perfect snow event for the SW from an Atlantic LP system, all a bit to good to be tbh, but we can get lucky occasionally.

Peak winds are likely to be within an hr or two of the heavy precip in the SW, gusts upto 40Kts according to the NAE.

Iceberg, are we gonna get some snow at last in Poole, or is it another major disappointment. Grateful for any hope for us snow starved central southerners.

[robnor1]

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

ha ha ha ha if that verifies what i said earlier will be bang on about Swindon being to N/E/S or W to get an event no matter what direction the snow is coming from.

[dogs32]

I would disagree with you. I feel that it will keep moving N/E although it will lose its intensity. I also feel that less places will see snow for any amount of time before this reverts to rain. High areas will be at most risk clearly. The areas that could do well are the cotswolds going into the midlands. Time will tell. What is sad is that this memorable spell is coming to an end. Still 50 days or so left of the winter so here's hoping for more.

James nice one :unsure:

Hi Noggy... :)

Im with TC on this one..

Tomorrow I will have blizzards

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[aspire27]

Personally I think it will stop 1.6 miles SW of Yatton!

Shame for you too then. That means you would get F all!

[Marcus_surfer]

I think it was a low moving in along the channel, which dragged easterly winds over the top of it.

To answer the second point tho, with the low from the west you get milder air, and usually plenty of PPN, when the two of those meet the cold air in place you get what is progged to happen tomorrow.

Snow, and lots of it. :unsure:

Plus the winds stay southeasterly for much of the time... Higher ground maybe Southeasterly 35 - 40mph, gusting 50 - 60mph.

[Nights King]

Iceberg, are we gonna get some snow at last in Poole, or is it another major disappointment. Grateful for any hope for us snow starved central southerners.

I think you could get a snow-rain event to be honest, my brother lives in your neck of the woods and it is just tropical down there even in winter because your so close to the coast i am afraid.

High ground in west country could see some impressive drifts in the winds forecast.

Edited January 11, 2010 by mullender83

[dogs32]

James dont fall for it

I cant WAIT for the Met ORANGE to move N/E :unsure:

[kent]

Cheers Mullender. Hope you get bucket loads. Who knows, we might get lucky for once.

[Iceberg]

Iceberg, are we gonna get some snow at last in Poole, or is it another major disappointment. Grateful for any hope for us snow starved central southerners.

I'd have to agree with Mullender, Slim for Poole, you might well get some snow, but the chances of it settling away from say 1000 yards from the sea can't be better than say 20%.

It increases out to around 2 miles or so, so Corfe Mullen maybe 40% and then goes to greater than 50% for north of Blandford, just my opinion though so could easily be wrong.

[jethro]

If this happens and if we do get a decent fall, is it going to be followed by rain? I ask as son has just come home in a paddy, he's been told categorically that he has to be in school on Thursday for an exam - even if transport is cancelled and school closed to the rest of the pupils.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

i think it will stop at bristol and then go se dumping 40cms on bristol......

on a more serious note i have an exam on thursday morning........................ im really worried im not going to be able to sit it

[Totoro]

BUT .......... turning to rain on Wednesday morning, 6am to midday:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis12/ukuk/prty/10011312_1112.gif

[Nights King]

If this happens and if we do get a decent fall, is it going to be followed by rain? I ask as son has just come home in a paddy, he's been told categorically that he has to be in school on Thursday for an exam - even if transport is cancelled and school closed to the rest of the pupils.

Maybe but there is still a good chance it won't turn back to rain because your quite high up at around 180/200m ish from what i remember.

We could all be cutting wrists though when morning models give us an almost final change....

[Dartmoor_Matt]

If this happens and if we do get a decent fall, is it going to be followed by rain? I ask as son has just come home in a paddy, he's been told categorically that he has to be in school on Thursday for an exam - even if transport is cancelled and school closed to the rest of the pupils.

Thats a joke considering schools normally close at the drop of a hat leaving everyone else to sort out the mess.

I've not seen any forecast saying its going to turn back to rain for here, so I would assume further East is likely the same. That said, who knows.

I assume the school have been issued orders by that joke of a women they had on the news this morning who said they could not possibly delay exams. (and gave some rather half cut reason, which to anyone with half the braincells of a dying fish was quite clearly nonsense)

</rant>

[Iceberg]

I am less inclined to believe it will turn to rain much before the precip dies down, the easterly surface winds should be maintained.

Looking at the latest 12Z GFS, we might have to go through this all again in 12 days time (if we can bare it), any warm up might be temporary lasting only a hand full of days. !.

[West is Best]

Looking at upper air temps, orientation set against surface temps ... I think this will fall as rain or sleety stuff.

I have sometimes got these things badly wrong, but I am unconvinced this is a snow event.

Anyway, down here in the south-west next weekend is going to feel positively spring-like after all this cold ...

[Nights King]

Thats a joke considering schools normally close at the drop of a hat leaving everyone else to sort out the mess.

I've not seen any forecast saying its going to turn back to rain for here, so I would assume further East is likely the same. That said, who knows.

I assume the school have been issued orders by that joke of a women they had on the news this morning who said they could not possibly delay exams. (and gave some rather half cut reason, which to anyone with half the braincells of a dying fish was quite clearly nonsense)

</rant>

Problem is our modern society means schools cannot afford the risk of a lawsuit from some scheming parent (minority of cases) because their obnoxious child breaks an ankle playing in it. What ever happened to the term accidents happen?

Crawls back under rock

Edited January 11, 2010 by mullender83

[jethro]

Thats a joke considering schools normally close at the drop of a hat leaving everyone else to sort out the mess.

I've not seen any forecast saying its going to turn back to rain for here, so I would assume further East is likely the same. That said, who knows.

I assume the school have been issued orders by that joke of a women they had on the news this morning who said they could not possibly delay exams. (and gave some rather half cut reason, which to anyone with half the braincells of a dying fish was quite clearly nonsense)

</rant>

I expect they have. He asked how, considering we live on the top of a hill, tiny lanes in and out of the village, miles to the main road, not a gritter in sight - the answer - walk if necessary, it's about 5 miles away. Time will tell.....

[noggin]

looks nice.

Yes, I'll definitely have that, thank you!

[Rich_Clements]

I expect they have. He asked how, considering we live on the top of a hill, tiny lanes in and out of the village, miles to the main road, not a gritter in sight - the answer - walk if necessary, it's about 5 miles away. Time will tell.....

You might be worrying over nothing, best wait and see.

[Snowcherries]

maybe, just maybe this is our best chance of a decent snow in dorset, well east anyway, though it is extremely marginal at the moment.

[Bristawl Si]

Well, here's my twopennyworth. I'm not sure what will happen!

This could be a major snow event for most of us, but then again it could all go t#ts up if it moves too far north and introduces milder air. It may only skim the south west and head off into the atlantic again.

I've seen these events get bigged up before and deliver nothing but rain or really wet snow that quickly turns to slush - yuk!

Is the cold air so entrenched that it really stalls the front, stays cold and dumps copious amounts of snow on its northern flank i.e. Bristol

what about that shortwave that Nick Sussex mentioned earlier?

Nowcast event.

Where's Ian? We need an update or maybe he's lying low 'cause he's not quite sure either

[Iceberg]

12Z GFS has Precip totals generally higher 15-20 across the SW, before swinging the band upto the M4 corridor across to the SE before dieing out.

A central place of somerset, west devon and NW Dorset seems to be the highest totals upto 25cms here, GFS though is lower res than NAE, but has the extra added bonus shortwave feature.

A combination of the two and you get widespread totals of 30-40cms across high areas of the SW from Devon to the cotswolds, mendips etc, but this is a bit too rampish for my liking.

I am starting to believe a little, but am afraid to believe too much....

The UKMET GM very much follows the GFS 12Z, with the higher precip totals and further NE movement of the precipitation.

Still very much of snow with high totals for eastern Devon, west and north dorset, somerset, south wiltshire and into South wales.

Totals agreement on at least 5-10cms of snow for most people and 2 out of 3 going for the 20-30cms for alot of people, next biggy will be the 18Z for GFS and UAE and the 00Z's from the 3 models which should have a good steer by then.