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South West England Cold Spell Discussion

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Looking pretty good for the south west for Tuesday and Wednesday if your a snow fan..

NAE

post-10638-12632230356628_thumb.gif

post-10638-12632230837528_thumb.gif

post-10638-12632231074228_thumb.gif

If these charts were in the bank then mendips and bristol area would get a pasting! yahoo.gif

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

If these charts were in the bank then mendips and bristol area would get a pasting! yahoo.gif

8mm?unknw.gif

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

12Z's just starting to trickle out, it will be interesting to see the NAE keeps to it's 06Z above. So far the 12Z looks to be less progressive and slows things down even more, can't see Bristol getting any precip before say 19.00 Tuesday on this run.

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Snowkissed Apprentice

Snowkissed

Posted
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (of course) Storms, Sunshine, everything begging with 'S'
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset
Posted

Well, as I would have expected, a slim chance of anything tangible for me down on the coast (albeit 3 miles in with a bit of elevation).

HOWEVER... I remember last February twice getting snow when it was supposed to be rain/sleet. Most notably when all roads out of Weymouth were blocked by snow for 6 hours and I literally couldn't make it in to work that day. Another time earlier on in Feb (I think it was) when a circulation sat still over us getting continually fed by the English Channel and dumping a fair bit during one afternoon. Yes I don't expect it (other than some transient PPN) but am fully aware that there always an outside chance of a very pleasant surprise.

A very good post !

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

moderate snow falling here !! yahoo.gifyahoo.gifdrunk.gif

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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

Some of you might hate me, but I hate wet snow as Ian has mentioned in his blog.

This is why i was so disspointed with Sundays forecast cock up. That day was supposed to be powder snow (something rare here) and strong easterly winds blowing it around.

Think the strong wind (hopefully) will make things stick rather than blow around.

I know im fussy, but i base all my snow events on Feb 91, something IMBY not beaten.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

The 12Z NAE keeps totals generally lower, 5-10cm's for most areas, 25cms across south Devon, struggling to get as far NE as Gloucestershire, but maybe a few cms here.

Bristol right on the edge maybe 5-8cms.

It will no doubt change on it's next run though.

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WESTERN SNOWS Newbie

WESTERN SNOWS

Posted
  • Location: bristol
  • Location: bristol
Posted

12Z's just starting to trickle out, it will be interesting to see the NAE keeps to it's 06Z above. So far the 12Z looks to be less progressive and slows things down even more, can't see Bristol getting any precip before say 19.00 Tuesday on this run.

thats even better coz it will be that little bit colder by then so im all for that. and also the slower it goes the more snow we get in 1 area

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Forgot to add these are base figures, so add extra for high ground, according to this, the south high ground of Dartmoor might get as much as 30-40cm's in a gusty wind of upto 45mph.

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Snowfan50 Newbie

Snowfan50

Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
Posted

If it falls as snow it looks like it will be in the eastern SW. North devon looks like rain DAMN. Just got to hope now. France looks like it will take a right pasting though.

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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

The 12Z NAE keeps totals generally lower, 5-10cm's for most areas, 25cms across south Devon, struggling to get as far NE as Gloucestershire, but maybe a few cms here.

Bristol right on the edge maybe 5-8cms.

It will no doubt change on it's next run though.

Agree. Cant see Gloucester getting much.

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Liking Ians blog, not even sure of it turning back to rain in lowland Devon... so probably not at all at near on 1000 feet!

Excellent. Best get to the gym in the morning then.

Forgot to add these are base figures, so add extra for high ground, according to this, the south high ground of Dartmoor might get as much as 30-40cm's in a gusty wind of upto 45mph.

shok.gifshok.gifshok.gif

good.gif

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

expect things to keep changing also.....The LP might stall and w e could ahve hrs and hrs of snow before it fizzles..

edit

LOL..Aspire I can :lol:

Edited by dogs32
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03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

My Dad was telling me today about an event which was forecast as heavy rain, and turned out as widespread blizzards. Says it could have been 1981. Dogs, what was the setup like which brought the 1981 blizzards?

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

12A GFS is in for the period and has it as far east as London, upto the West Midlands and North Wales, quite different again to the NAE, still as snow in the SW including Devon come 7.00am Wed morning.

It makes much more of the feature and shortwave again, whilst sending the low northwards quickly, up over ireland.

The shortwave enhances the easterly winds and the lower DP's.

It could end up in either camp, or something between, but the METO's 80% seems a good call, based on the models.

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robnor1 Newbie

robnor1

Posted
  • Location: Ash Brake, Swindon
  • Location: Ash Brake, Swindon
Posted

Just seen Richards BBC online forcast for Bristol, quite widespread snow. Starting off around 14.00 for Bristol and intensifying into the night through wednesday morning.

Hope they dont get this wrong!

I really really hope the wind picks up as forecast.

Mr Misery here i am sure that the forecasts are done giving worst case so when those that don't follow the weather like we do end up with less snow it's a bonus. Of course to people who like all things snowy its comes as a let down. To businesses, schools and the sports its all a "thank goodness it's not so bad view".

Like the other day who would be mad enough to complain that they only got <10cm when 20, 30 and 40cm was forecast at one stage we on here would of course not the gen public!!!

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03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

Wow, latest GFS looking less marginal, cold air further south, but ppt. remains in situ, looking good..... or bad... if it comes off as severely as it has the potential to.

Old Run:

h850t850eu.png

New Run:

h850t850eu.png

Much bigger pool of sub -5 air, much further south! Could models be underestimating the amount of cold around?

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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

expect things to keep changing also.....The LP might stall and w e could ahve hrs and hrs of snow before it fizzles..

edit

LOL..Aspire I can laugh.gif

Think the general idea it will stall further south from your location and push away E/SE.

And there is warning out for your area until Wednesday.

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03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

Latest NAE accumulation.

Will it reach far enough NE for Gloucestershire to be affected?

10011312_1112.gif

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

It hasn't got above -0.2 all day here, snow grains almost all day and now it's snowing properly :lol:

Hoping, really hoping we get something significant tomorrow/Wednesday but it's sooooo difficult to not be sceptical.

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Snowfan50 Newbie

Snowfan50

Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
Posted

Wow parts of southern forcast for 46mm, though i take these charts with a pinch of salt.

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