South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Rich_Clements]

looking like a near deifnate at presnet

That's the kiss of death for that

[kernowman]

It's now overcast, grey, 6C, and raining, back to a normal typical Winter. Never mind.

Edited January 11, 2010 by kernowman

[nick sussex]

Quite a confusing picture emerging for tomorrow and into Wednesday, as Iceberg mentioned the gfs 06hrs run develops a shortwave and runs this eastwards, the latest NAE keeps the driving low further west as opposed to the earlier 00hrs run which drove this towards the sw. This makes a difference to the precip amounts, the 00hrs NAE did indicate heavier precip compared to the 06hrs which reduces this, still alot of snow but more aimed towards Devon, however the differences in low pressure placement between the two runs is alot given the timeframe so typically its all very complicated once again!

Again this looks like a nowcast, if the low is further south and tracks closer to the sw then this equals much heavier precip, if the low is held back nearer to Ireland then a reduction in the overall precip amounts. A difficult call for tomorrow, hopefully we'll have a better idea by this evening!

Edited January 11, 2010 by nick sussex

[snowking]

NAE and GFS 6z fairly similar (minus the extra shortwave) in terms of precip distrubution....the problem with the 6z for those (and yes here it comes again) south of the M4 is that the uppers get above 0c - likely to be frozen rain in those areas once this occurs

From an IMBY perspective though i'd very much bank the 6z GFS - absolute perfection for glos and north wilts (along later with west oxon) with heavy precip, increasing vortical forcing and all temps just the right side of marginal - temp 0c, dews -1c (down to -2c at times) 850's between -1c and -4c

Would be a chaotic day here if that were to happen.

SK

[textmum]

Quote from This is Gloucestershire

10.30am: According to TiG weather expert Ian Thomas, the county will be at the centre of a tremendous battle - meteorologically speaking - over the next few days.

The forecast is for another frost tonight, with a cold south-easterly wind blowing in tomorrow morning. Low pressure from the Atlantic will then sweep in over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

Ian said: "My prediction is this will turn to snow in the higher grounds and sleet and rain below. We could see as much as 50 to 80mm of snow in the Forest of Dean and Cotswolds.

"Seasonally, this is now the coldest winter in this area for 31 years. It's been a real battle between the cold air and milder air - a knife edge situation. Looking ahead into next week, I think the cold air is going to win."

Did anyone hear this report on TV or radio, I guess we will get the rain, but thats a lot of snow!!

[Lynxus]

Quote from This is Gloucestershire

10.30am: According to TiG weather expert Ian Thomas, the county will be at the centre of a tremendous battle - meteorologically speaking - over the next few days.

The forecast is for another frost tonight, with a cold south-easterly wind blowing in tomorrow morning. Low pressure from the Atlantic will then sweep in over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

Ian said: "My prediction is this will turn to snow in the higher grounds and sleet and rain below. We could see as much as 50 to 80mm of snow in the Forest of Dean and Cotswolds.

"Seasonally, this is now the coldest winter in this area for 31 years. It's been a real battle between the cold air and milder air - a knife edge situation. Looking ahead into next week, I think the cold air is going to win."

Did anyone hear this report on TV or radio, I guess we will get the rain, but thats a lot of snow!!

Its Ian Thomas from Thisisgloucestershire.co.uk

I dont think anyone here knows where he gets his predictions from and are generally also quite wrong.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

wow......... 12hours constant heavy snow............ i have an exam on thursday :unsure:

[Lynxus]

wow......... 12hours constant heavy snow............ i have an exam on thursday :unsure:

Its gonna be rain, I betcha

[JonGill]

The 06Z NAE has the low further west than on its 00Z run with winds not quite as strong or am I misreading the charts?

[snowking]

Quote from This is Gloucestershire

10.30am: According to TiG weather expert Ian Thomas, the county will be at the centre of a tremendous battle - meteorologically speaking - over the next few days.

The forecast is for another frost tonight, with a cold south-easterly wind blowing in tomorrow morning. Low pressure from the Atlantic will then sweep in over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

Ian said: "My prediction is this will turn to snow in the higher grounds and sleet and rain below. We could see as much as 50 to 80mm of snow in the Forest of Dean and Cotswolds.

"Seasonally, this is now the coldest winter in this area for 31 years. It's been a real battle between the cold air and milder air - a knife edge situation. Looking ahead into next week, I think the cold air is going to win."

Did anyone hear this report on TV or radio, I guess we will get the rain, but thats a lot of snow!!

This is a guy who a few months back predicted a tornado around midnight one night in gloucestershire - errrrrm....

To steal a quote from the memorable David Allen back on the old BBC Snow-watch forums - nuff said

SK

[Iceberg]

NAE and GFS 6z fairly similar (minus the extra shortwave) in terms of precip distrubution....the problem with the 6z for those (and yes here it comes again) south of the M4 is that the uppers get above 0c - likely to be frozen rain in those areas once this occurs

From an IMBY perspective though i'd very much bank the 6z GFS - absolute perfection for glos and north wilts (along later with west oxon) with heavy precip, increasing vortical forcing and all temps just the right side of marginal - temp 0c, dews -1c (down to -2c at times) 850's between -1c and -4c

Would be a chaotic day here if that were to happen.

SK

Yep, the NAE 06Z also prolongs the precip in the central belt, this is bad for Devon and south Dorset as it increases the likelyhood of it turning to rain, but does increase the precip totals for the 48-60hr period would be my guess on the NAE. so less precip upto 48 for most, but only as it delays and keeps things going for longer.

[aspire27]

wow......... 12hours constant heavy snow............ i have an exam on thursday

Plenty of rain for Cornwall, Devon. Snow further NE, rain around all coasts north Devon, South Coast.

This is a marginal event.

Not sure if the heavy PPN to reach Gloucester.

I would prefer the whole lot to miss and head into northern France and give us more chance of prolonging the cold spell.

I know where i live there is a good chance of snow, but i hate wet snow that dosent stick and gets washed away as it turns to rain.

Edited January 11, 2010 by aspire27

[snowking]

Yep, the NAE 06Z also prolongs the precip in the central belt, this is bad for Devon and south Dorset as it increases the likelyhood of it turning to rain, but does increase the precip totals for the 48-60hr period would be my guess on the NAE. so less precip upto 48 for most, but only as it delays and keeps things going for longer.

Absolutely and to be honest a much better flow from the 6z NAE - ESE or even SE, maintaining the pull of cooler air from the near continent

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis06/ukuk/w010/10011306_1106.gif

Im guessing this is, in fact, partially the reason for the slightly drier run from the 6z

SK

Edited January 11, 2010 by snowking

[03jtrickey]

Quote from This is Gloucestershire

10.30am: According to TiG weather expert Ian Thomas, the county will be at the centre of a tremendous battle - meteorologically speaking - over the next few days.

The forecast is for another frost tonight, with a cold south-easterly wind blowing in tomorrow morning. Low pressure from the Atlantic will then sweep in over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

Ian said: "My prediction is this will turn to snow in the higher grounds and sleet and rain below. We could see as much as 50 to 80mm of snow in the Forest of Dean and Cotswolds.

"Seasonally, this is now the coldest winter in this area for 31 years. It's been a real battle between the cold air and milder air - a knife edge situation. Looking ahead into next week, I think the cold air is going to win."

Did anyone hear this report on TV or radio, I guess we will get the rain, but thats a lot of snow!!

50-80mm snow - I think he means snow depths of 5cm to 8cm not 50-80mm of rain falling as snow! Though I don't normally see snow measured in mm.

I would agree with his prediction so far, but it will be interesting to see whether the lowlands of Gloucestershire end up the right side of marginal. 6Z GFS and NAE are looking good for Gloucestershire, so we could even see wet snow down here. However I do think it will be a very messy picture, with a thaw of any lying wet snow quickly setting in once it has finished.

Edited January 11, 2010 by 03jtrickey

[Cakie]

Met Office have updated their warning

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Iceberg]

A new update on the MET Office advisory for Tomorrow, pretty much in line with the 06Z NAE which they probably waited for, before releasing.

an increase to 80% certainty for Devon and Somerset (as regardless of how far east the band gets, it will at least get to these parts).

Also as per the 06Z, turning to rain in places.

South West England:

80% Devon

80% Somerset

60% Bath + NE Somerset

60% Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

60% Dorset

60% N Somerset

60% Plymouth

Heavy Snow 1200 Tue 12 0600 Wed 13

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting much of Southwest England along with southern and central Wales.

A band of heavy snow will move northeastwards during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before easing off. New snow accumulations of 5-10cm are expected widely with 10-20cm likely in places. This is more likely in parts of south Wales and on high ground of Southwest England. On high ground there is also a moderate risk of over 30cm. The strengthening southeasterly wind is likely to lead to drifting of snow.

This could cause disruption to travel networks and lead to problems with power lines.

The snow is likely to turn to rain across much of Cornwall and on south coasts of Southwest England on Tuesday evening as well as Southwest Wales.

This warning is likely to be superseded by Flash Messages.

Issued at: 1152 Mon 11 Jan

[Snowman15]

Drizzle here for the past 90 minutes in Wareham. Doesn't bode well for those on the south coast for tomorrow

Really? we've had light sleet here in East Dorset all morning!

A new update on the MET Office advisory for Tomorrow, pretty much in line with the 06Z NAE which they probably waited for, before releasing.

an increase to 80% certainty for Devon and Somerset (as regardless of how far east the band gets, it will at least get to these parts).

Also as per the 06Z, turning to rain in places.

South West England:

80% Devon

80% Somerset

60% Bath + NE Somerset

60% Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

60% Dorset

60% N Somerset

60% Plymouth

Heavy Snow 1200 Tue 12 0600 Wed 13

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting much of Southwest England along with southern and central Wales.

A band of heavy snow will move northeastwards during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before easing off. New snow accumulations of 5-10cm are expected widely with 10-20cm likely in places. This is more likely in parts of south Wales and on high ground of Southwest England. On high ground there is also a moderate risk of over 30cm. The strengthening southeasterly wind is likely to lead to drifting of snow.

This could cause disruption to travel networks and lead to problems with power lines.

The snow is likely to turn to rain across much of Cornwall and on south coasts of Southwest England on Tuesday evening as well as Southwest Wales.

This warning is likely to be superseded by Flash Messages.

Issued at: 1152 Mon 11 Jan

Excellent! Dorset still only 60% lol! - Dorset will most probs be removed and be a non event later! - im certainly not getting any hopes up for snow anymore after the large amount of non events for us Dorset people!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Game on, from the Met it seems they are not thinking of rain in central Devon then!

Possibly 30cm of snow!

[lfcdude]

A new update on the MET Office advisory for Tomorrow, pretty much in line with the 06Z NAE which they probably waited for, before releasing.

an increase to 80% certainty for Devon and Somerset (as regardless of how far east the band gets, it will at least get to these parts).

Also as per the 06Z, turning to rain in places.

South West England:

80% Devon

80% Somerset

60% Bath + NE Somerset

60% Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

60% Dorset

60% N Somerset

60% Plymouth

Heavy Snow 1200 Tue 12 0600 Wed 13

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting much of Southwest England along with southern and central Wales.

A band of heavy snow will move northeastwards during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before easing off. New snow accumulations of 5-10cm are expected widely with 10-20cm likely in places. This is more likely in parts of south Wales and on high ground of Southwest England. On high ground there is also a moderate risk of over 30cm. The strengthening southeasterly wind is likely to lead to drifting of snow.

This could cause disruption to travel networks and lead to problems with power lines.

The snow is likely to turn to rain across much of Cornwall and on south coasts of Southwest England on Tuesday evening as well as Southwest Wales.

This warning is likely to be superseded by Flash Messages.

Issued at: 1152 Mon 11 Jan

what about wiltshireeee

[Snowman15]

Dont worry Cornwall and Devon - Uncle Dorset will do it's best to pinch all the rain so you get snow!

With there being a chance of rain involved - Dorset will no doubt get this! dont meen to be so negative but its what usualy happens here! We either get no snow at all or we get the rain !

[Nights King]

Looks interesting but I still feel bristol area and Banes could miss out from this and only get a smattering.

Light snow here at present but there is no thaw today -0.3c

[03jtrickey]

I think Dartmoor_Matt is in the prime location for this,

mullender in the next best place

[Evo]

Fellow south coast Dorsetians will surely have a wry smile when they see the graphic for the MetO warning. Note that Bournemouth + Poole have been left as yellow !!

If I had to stick my neck out, I would say that South of the Doreset Downs will be looking at a slushy mess at best. I just can't see sufficient cold advection to bring snow to low levels here. The deepening and North Western placement of the low should send the colder air further East and North IMO. Still, we won't know for sure for a while yet...

That reminds me, I must update my location back to Bournemouth.

[Duane S.]

I think Dartmoor_Matt is in the prime location for this,

mullender in the next best place

I'd agree with that

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Beginning to look that way, although we only have look back 11 months ago to see that it can so easily change overnight... as anyone stuck on Haldon Hill will tell you.