South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Iceberg]

Fellow south coast Dorsetians will surely have a wry smile when they see the graphic for the MetO warning. Note that Bournemouth + Poole have been left as yellow !!

If I had to stick my neck out, I would say that South of the Doreset Downs will be looking at a slushy mess at best. I just can't see sufficient cold advection to bring snow to low levels here. The deepening and North Western placement of the low should send the colder air further East and North IMO. Still, we won't know for sure for a while yet...

That reminds me, I must update my location back to Bournemouth.

I'd agree with that south of Blandford isn't look good for anything other than a few hrs of wet slushy stuff. Wiltshire looks well placed to me, particularly Tuesday night.

(Although I am still quite pessimistic about the whole event).

[dogs32]

Im going to stick my neck out also and say this front is going to move alot more East and North than Met are currently showing.

The Orange WILL spread N/E.

ALOT more than people are saying,

you heard it here first.

Just my opinion

this is far from over on the movement of the Front

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[Evening thunder]

Well oddly for the last 30 mins or so we have had isolated but definite snow flakes drifting down outside. So basically just a few flakes drifting down not amounting to anything as its the lightest possible snow lol. It seemed to have stopped but on closer inspection it seems to have to turned to isolated bits of sleet

I Like the update to the warning from the Met Office. It will be interesting to see whether it actually is snowy down here on lower ground tomorrow rather than sleet etc.

Edited January 11, 2010 by StormMad26

[BenJamminJ]

Im going to stick my neck out also and say this front is going to move alot more East and North than Met are currently showing.

The Orange WILL spread N/E.

ALOT more than people are saying,

you heard it here first.

Just my opinion

this is far from over on the movement of the Front

Amen to that!

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Bristol is in a good enough spot as well as any areas running the M5 into Gloucester and around South East Wales. I would imagine the first 80% was issued for Devon and Somerset because (A) Devon has higher ground in Exmoor and Dartmoor which is a safer bet and Somerset is on the *real* boundary with regards to the transient nature of PPN, any West of Somerset to lower ground would be at risk of a snow to rain combination. The thinking is that the MO have only issued 80% so far due to the uncertainty on just how far the heavy PPN will make it East and I feel it is only a matter of time before areas of South East Wales, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Gloucestershire and Bristol are bought into the equation - after all this is essentially where the fun and games is most likely. NAE and GFS guidance have been relatively solid in that aspect. As for areas around Dorset, I would suggest it would fall as snow but perhaps be more transient near the coast in these areas. Any further East into Hampshire and Wiltshire there remains a little more uncertainty - although immediate areas around Bath and Swindon should see the risk increase through time I would of thought. This could effectively extend into South Hampshire and Berkshire too - but right now it'll be good to focus on the certainties. The fact that they have kept Cornwall in the 60% reflects my initial concerns on the overall dynamics and whether they are truly cold enough.

Edited January 11, 2010 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[Nights King]

Beginning to look that way, although we only have look back 11 months ago to see that it can so easily change overnight... as anyone stuck on Haldon Hill will tell you.

Yes quite true!

Could this be what we need to rival last febuarys 2 feet.... probably not but it just might come off.

I would love to see an update from Ian this evening.

Edited January 11, 2010 by mullender83

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Would they not mention if this was the case "principally to higher ground" as they frequently do down here in the land of mountains (or so various reporters on the BBC like to call them)

[Nights King]

Would they not mention if this was the case "principally to higher ground" as they frequently do down here in the land of mountains (or so various reporters on the BBC like to call them)

They didnt mention it last year....

[Dartmoor_Matt]

They didnt mention it last year....

Nope, but they did go for a snow to rain event... error.

Of course this was all very different to this year... I mean this year the ground is so very cold to... does that help?

[NickSomerset]

Hey, whats with the update weather warning on Met office for today (gone orange) all about...did'nt know we were getting snow today!!!

Edited January 11, 2010 by NickSomerset

[dogs32]

another update from the Met at 12.29

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Who was this then??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKeGr5dv0A&feature=player_embedded

[Snowman15]

Im confused! the metoffice has just issued a new warning for heavy snow for us today for 1 Hour! Whats this all about

[dogs32]

Who was this then??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKeGr5dv0A&feature=player_embedded

thats nasty..poor guy

[NickSomerset]

Im confused! the metoffice has just issued a new warning for heavy snow for us today for 1 Hour! Whats this all about

Agree confused too, where is that coming from....thoughts anyone?

EDIT: its now been removed, they all getting excited at the met office..LMAO

Edited January 11, 2010 by NickSomerset

[03jtrickey]

"Heavy Snow 1239 Mon 11 1245 Mon 11"

6 minutes of heavy snow lol.

[Snowman15]

Agree confused too, where is that coming from....thoughts anyone?

EDIT: its now been removed, they all getting excited at the met office..LMAO

They're just winding us up!!

[NickSomerset]

Agree confused too, where is that coming from....thoughts anyone?

EDIT: its now been removed, they all getting excited at the met office..LMAO

EDIT: Its now back up again....what the hell is going there...we gonna get some today or not!

Edited January 11, 2010 by NickSomerset

[Snowman15]

EDIT: Its now back up again....what the hell is going there...we gonna get some today or not!

wow snow for 6 mins!! :yahoo: :drinks:

[NickSomerset]

EDIT: Its now back up again....what the hell is going there...we gonna get some today or not!

Its OK the warnings only for 6mins and now its past the time of the warning so stand down everyone..

[Snowman15]

Its OK the warnings only for 6mins and now its past the time of the warning so stand down everyone..

That was one hell of an event! never seen anything like it before! 2 feet of snow just fallen in 6 minutes :drinks:

[NickSomerset]

That was one hell of an event! never seen anything like it before! 2 feet of snow just fallen in 6 minutes :drinks:

MET OFFICE funny 5 mins...LOL

[David-kig]

having said thatg though snow is getting heavy here lmao

[NickSomerset]

having said thatg though snow is getting heavy here lmao

REALLY..!!! maybe they do know what they are doing..?

[dogs32]

South West England:

Bournemouth

Bristol

Gloucestershire

Poole

S Gloucestershire

Torbay

Wiltshire

Heavy Snow Tue 12 Jan

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southern and central England and North Wales.

A band of snow will move slowly northeastwards during Tuesday evening and the first part of Wednesday before easing off. Accumulations of 2-5cm are likely in many places through this period, perhaps with 5-10cm locally. The strengthening east to southeast wind is also likely to lead to drifting of snow.

Issued at: 1232 Mon 11 Jan

it will pivot and slowly spread S/E albit light by then

Streching from N.Wales to S/W London

you will see

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32