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South West England Cold Spell Discussion

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

12Z GFS has Precip totals generally higher 15-20 across the SW, before swinging the band upto the M4 corridor across to the SE before dieing out.

A central place of somerset, west devon and NW Dorset seems to be the highest totals upto 25cms here, GFS though is lower res than NAE, but has the extra added bonus shortwave feature.

A combination of the two and you get widespread totals of 30-40cms across high areas of the SW from Devon to the cotswolds, mendips etc, but this is a bit too rampish for my liking.

I am starting to believe a little, but am afraid to believe too much....

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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

Latest NAE accumulation.

Will it reach far enough NE for Gloucestershire to be affected?

10011312_1112.gif

Exactly....... Dogs32???

Latest chart hardly anything in Gloucester as I just said...going E/SE.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

It hasn't got above -0.2 all day here, snow grains almost all day and now it's snowing properly yahoo.gif

Hoping, really hoping we get something significant tomorrow/Wednesday but it's sooooo difficult to not be sceptical.

You must be catching the edge of same ppn. It has built over the high ground all day and we have around 1 cm extra cover from today i think.

Still snowing here also. -0.6c

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Snowfan50 Newbie

Snowfan50

Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
Posted

The thing as well as the snow will be the high winds, METO has winds with gusts over 50 mph.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

My Dad was telling me today about an event which was forecast as heavy rain, and turned out as widespread blizzards. Says it could have been 1981. Dogs, what was the setup like which brought the 1981 blizzards?

EXACTLY..SPOT ON!!!!

I watched the forecast..I wont say who he was, but the forecast was heavy rain after some snow maybe..

They where so confident of this S/W Lp was going to kill the cold.

We all was convinced that Glos wouldnt get the snow or Southern part's

Didnt bother staying up that night as we expected rain.

Instead I woke up to an amazing site of blizzard's and high wind's with power cut's due to the snow sticking to the pylon's.

Awesome experience as a kid...

Very simialr set up as today...

Watched these BBC charts now since 1972 AS A SMALL KID.

We do have a great potentail from this,The event in 1981 or 82 did eventually turn to drizzle.

But after dumping so much snow and high drift's.

Dursley recieved 15" if I remember correct( while Chelt had 1ft..

very simialr to this event as the LOw struggled to push East.

Date's might not be 100%..when I was young I didnt keep a record...

Guess it was 18th of January but not sure..

We had a few of these James..If your father can remember.

I have said through out these weeks that Channel low's or South Westerly's are the one's to watch for.

Not the Beast from the East for The South West.

Nowcast memories are sometime's the best

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tufty Newbie

tufty

Posted
  • Location: Stubbington. Hampshire
  • Location: Stubbington. Hampshire
Posted (edited)

My Dad was telling me today about an event which was forecast as heavy rain, and turned out as widespread blizzards. Says it could have been 1981. Dogs, what was the setup like which brought the 1981 blizzards?

If i recall correctly a very similar set up, which caught a few out.

I am fairly confident, this may be an interesing event, but i am no expert and tomorrow will tell.

For those interested, and i hope the link works,this details a railway perspective of most of the bad snow years, with lots of pics.

Scroll... to 1981 and you will see

http://www.derbysulzers.com/200179.html

Edited by tufty
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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

EXACTLY..SPOT ON!!!!

I watched the forecast..I wont say who he was, but the forecast was heavy rain after some snow maybe..

They where so confident of this S/W Lp was going to kill the cold.

We all was convinced that Glos wouldnt get the snow or Southern part's

Didnt bother staying up that night as we expected rain.

Instead I woke up to an amazing site of blizzard's and high wind's with power cut's due to the snow sticking to the pylon's.

Awesome experience as a kid...

Very simialr set up as today...

Watched these BBC charts now since 1972 AS A SMALL KID.

We do have a great potentail from this,The event in 1981 or 82 did eventually turn to drizzle.

But after dumping so much snow and high drift's.

Dursley recieved 15" if I remember correct( while Chelt had 1ft..

very simialr to this event as the LOw struggled to push East.

Date's might not be 100%..when I was young I didnt keep a record...

Guess it was 18th of January but not sure..

We had a few of these James..If your father can remember.

I have said through out these weeks that Channel low's or South Westerly's are the one's to watch for.

Not the Beast from the East for The South West.

Nowcast memories are sometime's the best

Have you seen the latest PPN for your area?

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted (edited)

See Ians Blog...... he has an update there......

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/

The only thing to make me smile so far today... The fact that Mr F has said the majority of Somerset will see snow, fingers crossed I am in the minority!

I know you are all excited by snow, but seriously aren't you fed up with yet? It's cold, icy, dangerous and frankly if I was given to tantrums then I would be having one right now! biggrin.gif

Thank god I have a boss who told us all to go home. Day. From. Hell!

Can someone let me know if it is going to snow here please, cause if it is and I know I won't have work for the rest of the week then I am heading off to Bristol airport and getting on the first available flight to somewhere hot! whistling.gif

Edited by dancing daisy
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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

I have just gone out and built a somewhat rubbish snowman... to the height of 40cm, just to see how much actually falls... although its a guestimate height but its about right.

Heres hoping its buried tomorrow and not washed away!

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Hey guys, has there been big events with a low coming in from the atlantic before? Most times here in South Wales it just rains here if we have a cold/mild battle...Will this time be the one to cause havoc?

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Hey guys, has there been big events with a low coming in from the atlantic before? Most times here in South Wales it just rains here if we have a cold/mild battle...Will this time be the one to cause havoc?

Yup... last Feb for one.

Most of the time, this is the set up that gives this part of the country its best snowfall.

As for havoc... I think that depends on what happens after the snow.

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03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

Thanks Dogs and Tufty :unsure:

Going to be an interesting situation coming up!

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Yup... last Feb for one.

Most of the time, this is the set up that gives this part of the country its best snowfall.

As for havoc... I think that depends on what happens after the snow.

I'm sure that low came in from the east, from europe...Will a low coming in straight from the atlantic be any different?

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

I think the most interesting thing with this setup is we nearly all have alot of laying snow and cold ground temps in place so if we even get half of febuarys snow it is going to be amazing!!

yahoo.gifyahoo.gif

I am going to drive down to the local tesco in shepton mallet later and do some panic buying so i can just sit back and enjoy the show tomoro! drinks.gif

Lets hope i don't jinx it haha. acute.gif

Edited by mullender83
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aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

post-10683-12632260302128_thumb.jpg

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

Lets hope it stalls along that line and sits there through wed as well. air_kiss.gif

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tufty Newbie

tufty

Posted
  • Location: Stubbington. Hampshire
  • Location: Stubbington. Hampshire
Posted

Thanks Dogs and Tufty :unsure:

Going to be an interesting situation coming up!

Just dont get too down hearted if it does not come off.

The potential is there i think, and from what i make of this model reading malarkey,there is still a large cold pool the low will come up against, which wins, who knows !

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

One of the best things about the UAE is that come Wednesday morning it has a westerly 850 wind, but still maintains the easterly at ground level, thanks to the shortwave that even the UAE develops to some extent, the GFS more still though.

The above helps to keep the snow down to even lower levels in the SW.

ATM the models are very much showing a perfect snow event for the SW from an Atlantic LP system, all a bit to good to be tbh, but we can get lucky occasionally.

Peak winds are likely to be within an hr or two of the heavy precip in the SW, gusts upto 40Kts according to the NAE.

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted (edited)

I'm sure that low came in from the east, from europe...Will a low coming in straight from the atlantic be any different?

I think it was a low moving in along the channel, which dragged easterly winds over the top of it.

To answer the second point tho, with the low from the west you get milder air, and usually plenty of PPN, when the two of those meet the cold air in place you get what is progged to happen tomorrow.

Snow, and lots of it. :unsure:

Edited by Dartmoor_Matt
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noggin Aficionado

noggin

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Im going to stick my neck out also and say this front is going to move alot more East and North than Met are currently showing.

The Orange WILL spread N/E.

ALOT more than people are saying,

you heard it here first.

Just my opinion :)

this is far from over on the movement of the Front

I shall also stick my neck out!

I said this morning that it will be more to the West....so that Devon, Cornwall and Wales get the action.

Haven't changed my mind and would still be delighted to be proved wrong! :)

Let's see who (if anyone :unsure: ) gets it right!

Maybe we'll all get nothing but a load of useless drizzle..... :)

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Rich_Clements Rising Star

Rich_Clements

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted

I think the PPN will struggle past north Bristol. Anything that does will be light and fizzle out, before it drops SE into France.

West of the Red line has a good chance. Hopefully as the LP approches colder air will be brought in from those strong East winds.

To be honest I hope you are right, I am fed up of not being able to park my car anywhere near my house due to the snow.

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