Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[alijoe]

By 6pm heavier snow is into west wales up to swansea way

that's what gfs has down for south wales especially south east wales

12 midnight - heavier snow really gets going over west wales and as far as south east wales including cardiff/newport

Can I book it now please? Do I get an advance for booking early?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The 18Z brings the front later on in the day:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Upper air temps dont seem to be a problem anymore on this. Although the front doesnt push as far NE.

[andymusic]

Between 12 midnight and 6am in the morning the snow storm will do it's worst and be piling up the snow all over south/mid wales - even as far north on the west coast as snowdonia

[Jamie.]

I wonder if it will stall over S.Wales?

I guess it's in our favour if it arrives later given the colder temps in the Evening... although it may not make a difference at any time Tomorrow.

[andymusic]

Can I book it now please? Do I get an advance for booking early?

you can have a few more flakes for booking in advance and being a good girl but, i might have to take a few flakes away from you for not helping me get my car out today!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Between 12 midnight and 6am in the morning the snow storm will do it's worst and be piling up the snow all over south/mid wales - even as far north on the west coast as snowdonia

What time can i expect it to be snowing here?

[Jamie.]

What time can i expect it to be snowing here?

Originally about 3pm... might be around 6pm now I think.

[Cymro]

People are getting ahead of themselves Ill be suprised if Cardiff and Swansea see much at all.

[andymusic]

between 6am and midday wednesday - still going fairly strong but slightly dissapating! - cold uppers are entrenching themselves further and further south also

What time can i expect it to be snowing here?

light snow up until midnight - then heavy snow through the night until at least early wednesday afternoon

[swales]

Not so sure about here in Pontyates to be honest... we'll have to see tomorrow

only 6 miles from the coast

[benb]

Centre of low another 100 miles or so further west than progged previously. 850s all sub 0c, so far...

[Jamie.]

People are getting ahead of themselves Ill be suprised if Cardiff and Swansea see much at all.

MetO need to update their warnings then.

Risk of Disruption

Wales:80%Blaenau Gwent80%Caerphilly80%Cardiff80%Merthyr Tydfil80%Newport80%Rhondda Cynon Taff80%Torfaen80%Vale of Glamorgan60%Bridgend60%Carmarthenshire60%Ceredigion60%Monmouthshire60%Neath Port Talbot60%Pembrokeshire60%Powys60%Swansea

[andymusic]

the proviso is that at some point possibly wednesday morning the milder air may well cause the coastal areas to have sleet/rain but that's after the heavy snow over night between 12 - 6am

[Elnonio]

between 6am and midday wednesday - still going fairly strong but slightly dissapating! - cold uppers are entrenching themselves further and further south also

light snow up until midnight - then heavy snow through the night until at least early wednesday afternoon

Glad you got your car out Andy.

Looking good so far - am ignoring posters saying no snow for caerdiff/swansea!! V cold in cardiff tonight am shivering despite having the heating on constantly. I would give you a measurement but my son has broken his weather station apparently

Am worried about rain on the back edge washing everything away before we have time to enjoy it - what do you think?

[andymusic]

patchy light snow/sleet through to wednesday night then

[benb]

Not so sure about here in Pontyates to be honest... we'll have to see tomorrow

only 6 miles from the coast

I think we've a good chance if the wind stays coming off the land enough, E/SE, if there's too much S in it, I fear we're doomed...

[Wales123098]

There is still snow on the ground in Cardiff longest the snow has stayed around Cardiff in years, I can see snow in Cardiff tommorow evening especialy A48 northwards.

[andymusic]

Glad you got your car out Andy.

Looking good so far - am ignoring posters saying no snow for caerdiff/swansea!! V cold in cardiff tonight am shivering despite having the heating on constantly. I would give you a measurement but my son has broken his weather station apparently

Am worried about rain on the back edge washing everything away before we have time to enjoy it - what do you think?

I think on this event it'll be as marginal as where in cardiff you are - I'm from cardiff originally (born and bred in the heath area) and remember that certain areas closer to say caerphilly mountain did better than others - so it'll be something like that

Blow torch (7 - 8c) south westerlies coming in for friday and saturday - so get those bbqs out and your t - shirts on cause that's what it'll feel like after our record -15s - + extreme winds event along with it too - so from a snowstorm to a hurricane in one jump!!!!!!

Edited January 11, 2010 by andymusic

[Jamie.]

I think on this event it'll be as marginal as where in cardiff you are - I'm from cardiff originally (born and bred in the heath area) and remember that certain areas closer to say caerphilly mountain did better than others - so it'll be something like that

Blow torch (7 - 8c) south westerlies coming in for friday and saturday - so get those bbqs out and your t - shirts on cause that's what it'll feel like after our record -15s - + extrem winds event along with it too - so from a snowstorm to a hurricane in one jump!!!!!!

It's going to be odd seeing temps like that this weekend.

I'm so used to the cold/below freezing weather.

Proper wintery though... I prefer it to that mild rain stuff .

It's too early to say with accuracy if the mild will be back for good or for a short time. What do charts suggests at the moment? :lol:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Upper air temps on NAE:

http://expert.weathe...011300_1118.gif

These are looking promising

The NAE targets the heaviest of Snow over SE Wales @ 30h it isnt the first time it has done this...looking very good here:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011300_1118.gif

Then the front comes right acrosss:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011306_1118.gif

Snow for much of Wales perhaps turning to rain/sleet on its backege on SW coasts:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011312_1118.gif

Edited January 11, 2010 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[andymusic]

It's going to be odd seeing temps like that this weekend.

I'm so used to the cold/below freezing weather.

Proper wintery though... I prefer it to that mild rain stuff .

It's too early to say with accuracy if the mild will be back for good or for a short time. What do charts suggests at the moment?

short stint of mild weather - sorry to be like a stuck record but my mate Joe B - accuweather - suggests a 10 day lull of slightly milder weather (nothing extreme mind - we'll still know it's winter) then we are heading straight back into the freezer (around the 25th Jan) ready for another wintry extravaganza for february possibly until well into march. This is just a stat - not pattern matching - but the great winter of 1947 apparently started around 23rd January - spooky eh!

Edited January 11, 2010 by andymusic

[benb]

Upper air temps on NAE:

http://expert.weathe...011300_1118.gif

These are looking promising

The NAE targets the heaviest of Snow over SE Wales @ 30h it isnt the first time it has done this...looking very good here:

http://expert.weathe...011300_1118.gif

Then the front comes right acrosss:

http://expert.weathe...011306_1118.gif

Snow for much of Wales perhaps turning to rain/sleet on its backege on SW coasts:

http://expert.weathe...011312_1118.gif

Early Weds looks great 2m temps wise, cold pushing right back towards the coast- no significant thaw there...

[alijoe]

you can have a few more flakes for booking in advance and being a good girl but, i might have to take a few flakes away from you for not helping me get my car out today!

oh you little tuffy bruce. lol wot about if we make a deal I will help you get it out next time and as our friend joe said,, it could be soon.

[andymusic]

oh you little tuffy bruce. lol wot about if we make a deal I will help you get it out next time and as our friend joe said,, it could be soon.

your on Ali - you can have your Brucie bonus!!!!!!

not sure I want to get stuck again anyway - I've learned my lesson - don't go down black rd once the police have closed the road - silly bugger - missed the sign though cause my gfriend lives on this remote country lane

Edited January 11, 2010 by andymusic

[Stevetynant]

Well just checked outside and the car temp is showing 2 degrees above zero. I'm in the Rhymney Valley North of Caerphilly by about 7 miles. Not really thawing outside but very overcast and a little foggy. Was in Cardiff yesterday and saw Roath Park lake completely frozen over and even rarer - the first gritter into my cul de sac for 25 years.

Still got 4 inches of snow in the back garden - not sure what to expect tommorrow (got tickets to the theatre at 19:30 in Cardiff on Tuesday - do I risk it?)