Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jamie.]

short stint of mild weather - sorry to be like a stuck record but my mate Joe B - accuweather - suggests a 10 day lull of slightly milder weather (nothing extreme mind - we'll still know it's winter) then we are heading straight back into the freezer (around the 25th Jan) ready for another wintry extravaganza for february possibly until well into march. This is just a stat - not pattern matching - but the great winter of 1947 apparently started around 23rd January - spooky eh!

lol, mild weather will bring relief for alot of people I'm sure!

If only our infrastructure could cope with snow better... then these events wouldn't be an issue and more enjoyable for everyone.

[andymusic]

Well just checked outside and the car temp is showing 2 degrees above zero. I'm in the Rhymney Valley North of Caerphilly by about 7 miles. Not really thawing outside but very overcast and a little foggy. Was in Cardiff yesterday and saw Roath Park lake completely frozen over and even rarer - the first gritter into my cul de sac for 25 years.

Still got 4 inches of snow in the back garden - not sure what to expect tommorrow (got tickets to the theatre at 19:30 in Cardiff on Tuesday - do I risk it?)

not sure that's a good idea unless you have somewhere to stay outside of the rhumney valley you can call on

[Jamie.]

Well just checked outside and the car temp is showing 2 degrees above zero. I'm in the Rhymney Valley North of Caerphilly by about 7 miles. Not really thawing outside but very overcast and a little foggy. Was in Cardiff yesterday and saw Roath Park lake completely frozen over and even rarer - the first gritter into my cul de sac for 25 years.

Still got 4 inches of snow in the back garden - not sure what to expect tommorrow (got tickets to the theatre at 19:30 in Cardiff on Tuesday - do I risk it?)

My car always exaggerates outside temp about 2C in comparison to the weather station.

Wow at roath park lake being frozen over! Would've been odd to see.

Not sure on what to advise for Theatre. The snow is estimated to begin around 6pm, but not get really heavy until later on in the Night.

[andymusic]

lol, mild weather will bring relief for alot of people I'm sure!

If only our infrastructure could cope with snow better... then these events wouldn't be an issue and more enjoyable for everyone.

it'll be great to get some relief from this tiring weather - snow is wonderful but it doesn't half change the way we live our lives - if in the next 20 - 30 years this becomes the norm we will have to start adopting some of the winter techniques the norwegians and swedish use to get through the winter like snow tyres (studded) and various other techniques to keep things moving

[alijoe]

your on Ali - you can have your Brucie bonus!!!!!!

not sure I want to get stuck again anyway - I've learned my lesson - don't go down black rd once the police have closed the road - silly bugger - missed the sign though cause my gfriend lives on this remote country lane

brucie bonus? You get nothing for a pair,,,,, not in this game...

A man learning his lesson? my goodness, unheard of. BUT typical man blaming his girlfriends remote country lane. lol

Edited January 11, 2010 by alijoe

[TonyH]

I suppose there will be the usual marginality with a risk of sleet or rain towards more south-western and lower areas. Lets hope that there is actually enough precipitation this time, instead of having it being just patchy light stuff, as it has been known to work out like that a few times. Also lets hope the front makes it well into Wales, and then on the other hand that it does not get to much of a speed on and turn us into wet rather than white!

[andymusic]

brucie bonus? You get nothing for a pair,,,,, not in this game...

A man learning his lesson? my goodness, unheard of. BUT typical man blaming his girlfriends remote country lane. lol

she goaded me to go down the country lane saying she thought we'd make it and it'd be "FUN" - and me, I thought my volvo was invincible as it had coped with loads up until then - but when I slipped down into the "bowl" with no way forward or back we knew we were stuck - the "bowl" actually became a sort of a car park because at one point there were about 5 or six cars stuck there and when I went to get my car out today a satellite fitter van was a new victim of the black rd bowl - beware the black rd bowl - it's a bit like the bermuda triangle - it swallows up vehicles!!!!!!!

[J10]

People are getting ahead of themselves Ill be suprised if Cardiff and Swansea see much at all.

We will see, altitude will make a difference, but enough of a difference , we will have to wait and see.

It is not a perfect set-up, temps tonight could be lower, but upper air temps are good tomorrow, and the wind direction is not too bad. For here we will see mostly snow, as we did after Christmas in a much worse set-up with uppers over 5 degrees higher.

Will it settle, another story, my take for here, a mix of sleet and snow, with hopefully a decent fresh covering by Wednesday morning. Looking on the Met Office website (invent Section), temps for here are forecast to be between 0-2c all day.

[TonyH]

it'll be great to get some relief from this tiring weather - snow is wonderful but it doesn't half change the way we live our lives - if in the next 20 - 30 years this becomes the norm we will have to start adopting some of the winter techniques the norwegians and swedish use to get through the winter like snow tyres (studded) and various other techniques to keep things moving

That would be quite good I am really enjoying this winter! However I have also told my daughter to savour and treasure her memories of this snow sticking so long and our -16c frosts, as it could be the Winter to tell her children about in 20-30 years time.

[andymusic]

That would be quite good I am really enjoying this winter! However I have also told my daughter to savour and treasure her memories of this snow sticking so long and our -16c frosts, as it could be the Winter to tell her children about in 20-30 years time.

Again - you may be right - and sorry to harp on (very welsh HARP) - but Joe B - accuweather feels the solar minima right now is responsible for a big part of the freezing weather we are seeing and he believes the earth is going into a cooling trend for the next couple of decades - so winters like this may well become the norm so we may need to adopt these better winter techniques to keep Britain/Wales moving

[J10]

Upper air temps on NAE:

http://expert.weathe...011300_1118.gif

These are looking promising

The NAE targets the heaviest of Snow over SE Wales @ 30h it isnt the first time it has done this...looking very good here:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011300_1118.gif

Then the front comes right acrosss:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011306_1118.gif

Snow for much of Wales perhaps turning to rain/sleet on its backege on SW coasts:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011312_1118.gif

I'd take that and especially take this.

Before Christmas the models were not forecasting snow for us at all, this type most of it looks like snow, even the GFS is looking more favourable tonight. and the GFS always overplays coastal influences.

Last post for tonight - Nervously waits tomorrow.

Good Luck Everyone.

[alijoe]

she goaded me to go down the country lane saying she thought we'd make it and it'd be "FUN" - and me, I thought my volvo was invincible as it had coped with loads up until then - but when I slipped down into the "bowl" with no way forward or back we knew we were stuck - the "bowl" actually became a sort of a car park because at one point there were about 5 or six cars stuck there and when I went to get my car out today a satellite fitter van was a new victim of the black rd bowl - beware the black rd bowl - it's a bit like the bermuda triangle - it swallows up vehicles!!!!!!!

Ha that's funny. Bet your girlfriend was in stitches.. I would have been. That will teach ya.

[bennytes]

in a marginal situation like this, how much will lying snow play a part?

I was down West Wales(Haverfordwest) today, and they still have impressive quantities of snow lying. will that have a positive effect, seeing as it is so knife edge for them, and will that then also benefit points further east?

Edited January 11, 2010 by bennytes

[andymusic]

Ha that's funny. Bet your girlfriend was in stitches.. I would have been. That will teach ya.

She actually felt very guilty for goading me as up until friday lunchtime when it happened we were having a really good day - that soon put a stop to that eh!

There's always a reason for things - had to buy the towing eye - maybe it'll come in useful in the future - not that i wanna break down mind!

anyway back on topic - loads of snow for south wales - enjoy everyone - think i'll have an early night - could be a late one tomorrow

night!!!!!!!!!

in a marginal situation like this, how much will lying snow play a part?

I was down West Wales(Haverfordwest) today, and they still have impressive quantities of snow lying. will that have a positive effect, seeing as it is so knife edge for them, and will that then also benefit points further east?

yes - helps with temps

Just before I go - if you look on the meto radar you can just see the snow for tomorrow starting to come into view - hereeeeeeeee we go!

Edited January 11, 2010 by andymusic

[pyrotech]

Again - you may be right - and sorry to harp on (very welsh HARP) - but Joe B - accuweather feels the solar minima right now is responsible for a big part of the freezing weather we are seeing and he believes the earth is going into a cooling trend for the next couple of decades - so winters like this may well become the norm so we may need to adopt these better winter techniques to keep Britain/Wales moving

Yes and if you look in the climate change area / UK & nw Europe thread i have quite a contraversal forum about it there.

Regarding tomorrow, i am not sure we have yet seen the full picture and upgrades are still possible.

Looking at latest NAE my take is that things have moved westwards slightly and so it takes longer to reach us. But i see it now lasting into much later on Wednesday.

Swings and roundabouts really.

Any further west and we could see sleet accross the principality.

At this time i see the forecast made earlier being about right , but subtle changes on every NAE run, so far they been good but so easy can go the other way.

I will update around 10am tomorrow with graphics to show, no point tonight as nothing is set in stone.

To me so far most areas of wales orginally effected have seen a upgrade in likelyhood and amount on last NAE but its going to be nail biting time as we head into tomorrow Evening. Snow looks likely around 18z at the moment but lets wait and see.

Early night tonight as tomorrow may be a long one

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I'd take that and especially take this.

Before Christmas the models were not forecasting snow for us at all, this type most of it looks like snow, even the GFS is looking more favourable tonight. and the GFS always overplays coastal influences.

Last post for tonight - Nervously waits tomorrow.

Good Luck Everyone.

I agree does look allot better than that event around Christmas- although im not sure about the GFS idea of stalling the front over South Wales. UKMO and NAE take it further NE.

Inland areas of Wales looking very good, as for Swansea i think yes will be more of a wintry mix turning to Snow in the heavier precipitation though.

[alijoe]

She actually felt very guilty for goading me as up until friday lunchtime when it happened we were having a really good day - that soon put a stop to that eh!

There's always a reason for things - had to buy the towing eye - maybe it'll come in useful in the future - not that i wanna break down mind!

anyway back on topic - loads of snow for south wales - enjoy everyone - think i'll have an early night - could be a late one tomorrow

night!!!!!!!!!

yes - helps with temps

Just before I go - if you look on the meto radar you can just see the snow for tomorrow starting to come into view - hereeeeeeeee we go!

You have a good girlfriend, I would have just laughed and not felt guilty. lol

[mrmonopoly]

According to the Radar its raining in the South West at the moment with sleet on the moors.

[swales]

According to the Radar its raining in the South West at the moment with sleet on the moors.

NW precip type on the radar isn't the best and it's very generalised.

[derrylynne]

she goaded me to go down the country lane saying she thought we'd make it and it'd be "FUN" - and me, I thought my volvo was invincible as it had coped with loads up until then - but when I slipped down into the "bowl" with no way forward or back we knew we were stuck - the "bowl" actually became a sort of a car park because at one point there were about 5 or six cars stuck there and when I went to get my car out today a satellite fitter van was a new victim of the black rd bowl - beware the black rd bowl - it's a bit like the bermuda triangle - it swallows up vehicles!!!!!!!

pmsl. I will remember that next time I drive down there - when the snow has gone:-)

[mrmonopoly]

pmsl. I will remember that next time I drive down there - when the snow has gone:-)

Thats cracked me up something funny.

I got visions in my mind now of some destruction derby scene with cars flying around like on ice narrowingly missing each other as they swirl around.

[benb]

Apparent downgrade this morning? Is the low now too far west with bulk of precipitation/ energy hitting Ireland? Could that developing gap in the front have our name on it?

Carol on breakfast- "less snow than we thought"

Be interesting to see if MetO downgrade severe weather warning, as they did on Sunday.

Edited January 12, 2010 by benb

[DeepSnow]

GMTV Weather said it might start of sleety, but will soon turn to snow, and a bit later on the news they said we could see 12 - 18 hours of constant snow and up to 20cm! could be interesting, would be nice for a few inches

Been misty here since last night, still a bit misty and temps on the up, now 0.9C. Fingers crossed its still going to be a good night!

[Cymro]

GMTV's forecasts aren't as good as the bbc imo, Even though the bbc have had it wrong at times too, This is definetly a downgrade and i say anybody below 200meters don't expect much at all, You will only be disappointed. Seems to me that there isn't quite as much precipitation as first progged. the rain first will damage existing snow cover then a few hours of wet snow that won't settle much. Its going to be cold wet and mucky.

[andymusic]

It's now down to nowcasting and radar watching once again

SOOOOOOOOOOO Eyes Down - for a full house

OOOOOps wrong game

Radars at the ready - for the snow train!

Apparent downgrade this morning? Is the low now too far west with bulk of precipitation/ energy hitting Ireland? Could that developing gap in the front have our name on it?

Carol on breakfast- "less snow than we thought"

Be interesting to see if MetO downgrade severe weather warning, as they did on Sunday.

Things still look pretty good for south east wales but may be a little more marginal otherwise - but we're not gonna totally know till this system is under way - the front looks in tact to my eyes so a good spread of precip