South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

[slb97]

Hi all,

Well a cloudy day here in Portsmouth, less cold than yesterday but duller. Seems there's a milder wetter period coming up.....oh and my beloved football team are losing right now (no surprises there though) and may not even be around in a few weeks......I'm going to move lol!!!

[Stargazer]

It's a bit quiet here today...

Woke up to a dusting of snow this morning in Reading - apparently it was fairly localised and surprised the weather forecasters too. The garden's almost completely white, so enough to count as another day to add to the tally of falling and lying snow.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What's snow? I've forgotten already ...

[slb97]

I wish we could say what's rain? lol

Horndean had a light snow shower this morning (7 miles north of Portsmouth) and I counted 3, yes 3, snowflakes come down in the garden here at Portsmouth (one landed on my cat's nose much to her bemusement!)

[West Sussex Kate]

yep looked out at 6am to my suprise more snow!!! (yet again!) us southerners are being spoilt this winter, Guess its time now tho to get ready for some *warm weather * and then we can enjoy the easterly!

Edited February 1, 2010 by Westsussex1

[slb97]

Hi all,

I've been lurking in the model thread to see what's happening there - looks like lots of twists and turns to come yet regarding a return to cold (or not!) although Ian Fergusson's blog, the BBC West presenter, is also very interesting particularly the extract below:

"An equally consistent - and crucial - component of the latest briefings has been the almost universally low signal for significant PPN into the same period; thus the emphasis on a colder spell does not necessarily equate to an especially snowy one..... thus a provisional note of caution worth injecting, in case of myopia developing about the 'white stuff'."

Interesting times - in the meantime I've got my brolly handy for the next few days!

[slb97]

Evening all (if anyone's around!)

Ooohh.... it's raining and windy - yippee!!! Looks like that may be what we have to get used to for a while as the models 'have flipped to mild/wet again!'

Could be worse though at least it was dry when I came out of the hairdressers this afternoon lol

[pinkertonsurly]

Yesterday's chirpy dumbed-down forecast on South Today suggested that 'a few places may get into double figures on Wednesday'.

Winchester is currently +4. Even St Catherine's Point is only +5.

So there.

[flyer]

Get those runners greased up Girls and Guys "could " be the big one on the way next week.

Watch to see if those lows in the atlantic sink south and east and give a series of catherine wheel effects on their northern flanks while hoovering up from the channel and pulling in continential colder air .

Potentially mega amounts of moisture advected upwards.

But then again .......

[slb97]

Hi Flyer,

I've been reading the model thread with interest but things seem quite focussed on the eastern/central/southeast counties so not sure what, if any, it all means for us in the south central coastal areas. Looks like it might be cold though!

[flyer]

Hi Flyer,

I've been reading the model thread with interest but things seem quite focussed on the eastern/central/southeast counties so not sure what, if any, it all means for us in the south central coastal areas. Looks like it might be cold though!

Hello slb that was a quick lurk.

Looking at the model synoptics if they do not change for the worse then I think we could be in with more than a shout.

Have been scanning joe b (laminite floori) the infamous "weatheraction" and BFTP who follows a not dissimilar method together with GP,Steve Murr, TEITS, nick sussex, cooling climate,eugene etc in fact anyone who is saying what I want to hear

But all that aside Blasts "LRF forecast has been pretty good Watch for those unexpected channel lows popping up too.

[flyer]

.

Edited February 5, 2010 by flyer

[slb97]

Well I've enjoyed an almost 'warm' day with plenty of sunshine here - even saw a dozy wasp!!

Looks like getting colder next week then but not much in the way of any snow for us central southerners from what I can gather, still dry, cold and sunny.... it could be worse!

[kent]

Well I've enjoyed an almost 'warm' day with plenty of sunshine here - even saw a dozy wasp!!

Looks like getting colder next week then but not much in the way of any snow for us central southerners from what I can gather, still dry, cold and sunny.... it could be worse!

Hi sib, as the week progresses and the cold becomes more firmly entrenched maybe this could be one last chance for us in Poole. As you well know snow can appear within 6 hours of happening and catch everyone by surprise. Best scenario for us would be for those uppers to be cold enough and hope for that elusive channel low to appear.

[flyer]

Well I've enjoyed an almost 'warm' day with plenty of sunshine here - even saw a dozy wasp!!

Looks like getting colder next week then but not much in the way of any snow for us central southerners from what I can gather, still dry, cold and sunny.... it could be worse!

Hey slb less of the gloom . Here are the plus points. If we get an easterly then look for trough disruption (ripples) this is where precipitation can more often be found. If we get strong flow then showers can get blown in land a fair way . A southeasterly will pick up some extra moisture from the channel although you are a bit close to the coast for things to get going(but hey at least you get to see the factory right above your head as things are shipped up to my end :lol: )

If we get a ENE then the Thames estuary is good at generating snow streamers.

And as stated earlier you get overnight channel lows forming just when you least expect them which have brought many a surprise in times gone by .

If it's a North Easterly then I am afraid the snow will have to be trucked in at £120 per 15 tonner :lol:

OK or we could go dutch on a snow cannon

[slb97]

Hi Flyer and anyone else that's around!

Sorry didn't mean to come across as gloom - I felt great yesterday taking a long walk in the sunshine and again today listening to Coldplay as I ambled along! Maybe if I listen to Snow Patrol next week something might happen lol! To be honest I prefer it when not much snow is predicted as it's more fun if the surprises pop up! To be fair, it's not like everywhere is predicted to get loads of snow next week except for Portsmouth so I've got nothing to complain about (except that my football team are losing again!)

EDIT: my football team are getting massacred! Oh dear

Edited February 6, 2010 by slb97

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all south central southerners.

This winter has sure been odd, the best in my 30+ years that this boy can remember, as whatever happens in the final 3 weeks ahead it will be remembered well by myself. (my english grammar sounds like its given up!)

Anyway, my data thus far in Newbury suggests that the 9th December was the last date to achieved 10c in terms of temperature. 17 days whereby I have seen falling from the sky since 1st December. 18 days with more than 50% snow cover on the ground since 1st December. Can anyone beat that in our region? any takers.

I don't like bragging but I think it's worth bearing these facts out as after the forthcoming spell, the clock will be ticking. Now i'll pop over to the MO discussion to see what the guys n gals think is going to happen with part 3 of the cold winter outbreak of 2009/2010. Snow or no snow I don't mind as long as I keep the raging zonality away from the doorstep for now

Chilly Cheers

STORMBOY

[slb97]

Hey Stormboy,

I've been over to the Model Thread and it looks like it's going to be dry, cold/very cold with frosts and any snow confined mostly to east coasts/far south east. I can't beat your record wrt snow but we had a great time in early January here in Portsmouth and the surrounding areas with a lot more snow than a lot of people have seen for many a year! I also had the added bonus of spending New Year in the Peak District and saw loads of snow then as well so I've been lucky.

To be honest I don't expect to see much in the way of anymore snow for this region apart from the occasional flurry so I won't be disappointed if any lampost watching doesn't bear fruit! Anyway, here's hoping for lots of great thunderstorms later this year, they're my favourite!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hey Stormboy,

I've been over to the Model Thread and it looks like it's going to be dry, cold/very cold with frosts and any snow confined mostly to east coasts/far south east. I can't beat your record wrt snow but we had a great time in early January here in Portsmouth and the surrounding areas with a lot more snow than a lot of people have seen for many a year! I also had the added bonus of spending New Year in the Peak District and saw loads of snow then as well so I've been lucky.

Wow, you have been blessed with the white stuff and anyway for Portsmouth, snow sure has to be a rarity so any days with snow cover is something. Mind you, most years in Newbury I have to head up to the local downs to see the best of the snow too.

To be honest I don't expect to see much in the way of anymore snow for this region apart from the occasional flurry so I won't be disappointed if any lampost watching doesn't bear fruit! Anyway, here's hoping for lots of great thunderstorms later this year, they're my favourite!

Wow, you have been blessed with the white stuff and anyway for Portsmouth, snow sure has to be a rarity so any days with snow cover is something. Mind you, most years in Newbury I have to head up to the local downs to see the best of the snow too.

Storms, particularly continental type with vivid lightning is definitely my favourite too, so I am indeed a true stormboy

All the best for the days a coming SLB and other lurkers out there.

STORMBOY

Edited February 6, 2010 by STORMBOY

[flyer]

Hey Stormboy,

I've been over to the Model Thread and it looks like it's going to be dry, cold/very cold with frosts and any snow confined mostly to east coasts/far south east. I can't beat your record wrt snow but we had a great time in early January here in Portsmouth and the surrounding areas with a lot more snow than a lot of people have seen for many a year! I also had the added bonus of spending New Year in the Peak District and saw loads of snow then as well so I've been lucky.

To be honest I don't expect to see much in the way of anymore snow for this region apart from the occasional flurry so I won't be disappointed if any lampost watching doesn't bear fruit! Anyway, here's hoping for lots of great thunderstorms later this year, they're my favourite!

Trust me it will snow.

Just might have to wait a few days till things evolve.

[slb97]

I have lots of patience luckily! Just watching some tornado videos with my stepson - he's only 11 and has been fascinated with the snowstorms in America today too - favourite quote of his tonight has to be "why does America get all the cool stuff?" Lol, bless him!

[flyer]

I have lots of patience luckily! Just watching some tornado videos with my stepson - he's only 11 and has been fascinated with the snowstorms in America today too - favourite quote of his tonight has to be "why does America get all the cool stuff?" Lol, bless him!

Check out the 3 lows on the 16th !

[slb97]

One thing I've learnt from reading stuff on the model thread is not to pay too much attention to things in 'FI' as they invariably change - does this apply to the lows on the 16th as well?

[flyer]

One thing I've learnt from reading stuff on the model thread is not to pay too much attention to things in 'FI' as they invariably change - does this apply to the lows on the 16th as well?

Yep

But sooner or later we will get a breakdown from the West which will give us a fight between moisture and cold.

But way before then the weather is making inroads from the East or North. Just needs to make it's mind up.

Imho an Easterly followed by a Northerly.

Edit : It's gone very quiet in there since the bun fight

Edited February 6, 2010 by flyer

[slb97]

Yep I'm familiar with the breakdown scenario (some things have managed to get into my brain which is a miracle as they're a bit science based) but being on the coast we usually get the rain which starts turning to snow the further north it travels as it meets the cold air! What's the best 'system', if there is one, for us to benefit from? e.g. northerly seems to have a 'wishbone' effect for the east/west coasts, easterly for the east coasts etc and for us, well, erm....not sure lol!