South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

[flyer]

Yep I'm familiar with the breakdown scenario (some things have managed to get into my brain which is a miracle as they're a bit science based) but being on the coast we usually get the rain which starts turning to snow the further north it travels as it meets the cold air! What's the best 'system', if there is one, for us to benefit from? e.g. northerly seems to have a 'wishbone' effect for the east/west coasts, easterly for the east coasts etc and for us, well, erm....not sure lol!

Well as you say Northerlys are not so good for us as unless they are sustained the precip is dumped way before us and the air needs to be very unstable to get any upward flow. Agree the wishbone effect due to the highlands rules things out. It is only the meeting of fronts that gives us a shout.

If the low moves from the East then the rotation will spill over from the North East blowing inland with some advection off the North Sea.

The best bet is whisltling lows moving West to East. Quite tight as you dont want a warm Sw flow but a quite tight flow that is not directly affected by the warming atlantic when this hits any high you want it to ride up over to give height. Pretty complex stuff as there are so many variables due to our proximity being an isolated land mass.

Edited February 7, 2010 by flyer

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello again fellow SCE'ers

Whilst it's not quite what I was expecting, but in my interpretation of the latest GFS output, as well as awaiting more knowledgeable input on this. In the timeframe, 72 hours from now it's possible there could be an interesting event in development? okay, so it's always anticipated more snow the further southeast you are but who knows, nowcasting and lamppost watching could be in order by Wednesday.

Also, I have a funny feeling that a covering could well catch one or two folk out as if you check out the latest radar captures, is something there already?

Just need the dewpoints to fall and an event of sorts (perhaps rather mediocre) may well occur before Wednesday. Edit 1.8c DP and falling, keep going son as the uppers are coming.

Chilly Cheers

STORMBOY

Edited February 7, 2010 by STORMBOY

[kent]

Hi Stormboy, lets hope those uppers are good enough to deliver here in Poole. Our time must surely come sooner or later but then we say that with every cold spell and every tv forecaster says those dreaded words, rain on those southern coasts lol. Must admit that you are in a more favourable location than me but heres hoping again.

[slb97]

Hi Stormboy, lets hope those uppers are good enough to deliver here in Poole. Our time must surely come sooner or later but then we say that with every cold spell and every tv forecaster says those dreaded words, rain on those southern coasts lol. Must admit that you are in a more favourable location than me but heres hoping again.

Hi Kent,

I know what you mean about the TV forecasters - they always do and it drives me nuts (even though they're right most of the time!) What's worse is that we know our rain turns to snow a few miles up the road lol!

[flyer]

Sleds at the ready on butser hill

[Lightningboy]

I reckon we will get some sort of snow during the week, After all February is always our best month for snow usually

[katemart]

Light drizzle here in Salisbury, with the odd snowflake mixed in!

[Stargazer]

It was raining when I left Reading this morning, with some sleet in the mix during the drive to work. Snow flurries all morning here on the hill above Basingstoke but it hasn't yet settled.

[slb97]

Had a very light rain shower about 10 mins ago but just cloudy with the odd bit of brightness thrown in now.

[flyer]

Had a very light rain shower about 10 mins ago but just cloudy with the odd bit of brightness thrown in now.

Need to go to Mums they have 3 ft drifts there inland

Edited February 8, 2010 by flyer

[pinkertonsurly]

A bit of drizzle in Winchester earlier - now turned into a few snowflakes in the wind. Can't imagine that many daffodils are going to be up for flowering for St David's Day at this rate.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well it's another snow day here in Newbury.

Judging by the NW radar could there yet be time for some proper stuff later this pm?

All too wet though but the trends are there, dropping dp etc. now off to the model discussion thread again.

Sleety Cheers

STORMBOY

[slb97]

Just picked mum up from Hayling Island and on the way back to Horndean (7 miles north of Portsmouth) it started snowing and has been for about 15 mins albeit lightly!

Edit: Coming down a bit harder now with bigger flakes - not bad considering it was only meant to be rain!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Been flurrying here for the past 30mins or so. Some nice big flakes in it too.

[kold weather]

Still got a very wintry mix here, I suspect had it been a little heavier it would have been mainly snow rather then this wintry mix currently, as it seems to have been mainly snow when it did get briefly heavier about an hour ago.

[steve1971]

light sleet here very small snow grains mixd in to very cold wind to..

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Been flurrying for the past hour here. Bout the best ya get lol.

[Lightningboy]

Been having Snow Showers all morning and just had a heavyish one

[slb97]

Glad to hear the Isle of Wight are getting some snow even if it's just showers (like Pompey)! People are worrying on the model thread because it looks like not being so cold next week now but some of them have probably had loads of snow already. At least we had ours in early January - anything other than that is a bonus really!!

[Lightningboy]

Glad to hear the Isle of Wight are getting some snow even if it's just showers (like Pompey)! People are worrying on the model thread because it looks like not being so cold next week now but some of them have probably had loads of snow already. At least we had ours in early January - anything other than that is a bonus really!!

Indeed, this is imo a typical snow shower february day

I love watching the snow shwoers develop in february

[slb97]

Raining here in Portsmouth - good timing though as I've been out and just missed getting wet!

[kent]

Hello from Poole. Probably talking to myself but this thread is sooo lonely I thought id inject some hope. The models are now signalling that even down here on the coast it could get a little more interesting with decreasing temps. Heres hoping but dont hold your breath lol.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello fellow SCE'rs.

Don't give up just yet on this cold spell, I've got a feeling there's a surprise or two or three for (4) a few before the winter's over. It seems plausible more proper SNOW could be coming our way real soon within the realiable, say >72-96hrs out as its getting messy out there. Perhaps I feel lying SNOW maybe an outsider but outsiders can win. Anyway ignore my ramblings and check out the MO and other discussion threads as things look like getting interesting and spring is being delayed for sure, like it or not!

Over and Out.

STORMBOY

[slb97]

Hey there,

Trying not to give up but failing a bit to be honest! I've been following the model thread and whilst I'm chuffed for those who do see snow wherever they are, I'm a bit fed up of the 'except for the far south' or 'north of the M4' or 'extreme south will be milder/wetter/drier' etc etc... I'm sure that's the case but we get the message lol!

I'm not bothered if snow lays really, at least I've got the t-shirt in that respect after early January but I love seeing snow fall; I find it mesmerizing! What will be will be as they say!

[flyer]

Standby.

The way that low is jumping about this "could" be the real thing this time

Edited February 17, 2010 by flyer