South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[rowieboyz]

Looking at the Netweather radar it,s made Landfall in the past half hour, I reckon it will be with you in the next hour or so.

Ahh thankyou, I will have my face glued to the window and will post to let peeps know what is falling.

Jase

[BenJamminJ]

wow, to my untrained, uneducated and completely amateur eye..... that looks like a LOT of rain on the radar!!

edit: or snow!

Edited January 12, 2010 by BenJamminJ

[rowieboyz]

Yup, will do... although should be working (Am also trying to research a new digitl SLR camera (so if anyone has any recommendations....))

The front of the PPN is over the tip of Cornwall at the moment, with the real heavy band somewhere out over the Scillies (ish) Considering it came into radar last night (or seemed to be) it does seem to be moving quite slowly, but i'll update you as it moves over the SW.

Thanks Matt

[Wilxy]

Forecast still looks good for snow here tonight but im not overly confident at the moment anyone see any signs of the rain turning to snow yet in cornwall.

[rowieboyz]

We could do with a few posts from our friends in Cornwall to let us know if there is anything wintry falling.

Do we have any one on bodmin moor?

Jase

[rich101]

whats the outlook then dogs323232.lol!very light snow in churchdown,clouds look full of it!cold east wind too.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Certainly some bright echos showing up in the main band. Wouldn't want to be on a plane flying to the islands....

Infact, I think the news this morning said that all flights from Lands End airport were being moved to Newquay...not sure why, probably the winds

Edited January 12, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Rich_Clements]

cold enough for snow here,light snow in the wind at times.

Had to scrape the car windscreen this morning, impressive considering we had cloud cover.

[Iceberg]

Taking in the 06Z models.(GFS based atm, but I will update with NAE)

Looking at the key factors of precip, DP's, 925/950 temps, 1000-850 thicknesses and 2mT.

We have a very rough following.

Cornwall (sorry no chance !).

Devon.

Precip No issues 15-20mm totals.

DP's 0C at 15.00 upto 1C by 18.00 2C by Wed 09.00.

2mT 1C all through until Wed 09.00.

925temps -2 at 15.00 rising to 2C by Wed 12.00

1000-850 thicnkesses 129 at Tues 15.00 129/130 by Wed 00.00 132 by Wed 12.00

Essentially a strong snow signal until 15.00 today, from 15.00-09.00 Height really is needed approx 200m for lying snow.

From 09.00 Wed this really is restricted to the highest ground.

As we move into Somerset, Dorset and Wilshire.

Precip No issues 5-15mm totals (less as you move eastwards)

DP's 0C at 15.00 upto 0C by 18.00 0C by Wed 09.00.

2mT 0C all through until Wed 09.00.

925temps -3 at 15.00 rising to -1C by Wed 12.00

1000-850 thicnkesses 129 at Tues 15.00 129 by Wed 00.00 130 by Wed 12.00

Essentially a strong snow signal until 12.00 Wed. Thicnkess and DP's decrease as you get closer to the south coast making approx 10 miles from the south coast for Dorset marginal with 150-200m needed for lying snow.

Somerset is not really effected by this and over say 50m or so snow totals should be reasonable.

Moving to Avon,Gloucester, Wilshire, precip becomes more of a problem than the cold temps which are by and large 1C below the values for somerset.

I still have doubts that the precip will get as far as Bristol as it peels away north before hand into Wales and south as it reaches Bath.

GFS 06Z kind of concurs with maybe 2cms or so for Bristol, Hampshire looks to get slightly more Tuesday night/Wed morning maybe 3-5cms.

I wonder what the NAE 06Z will bring.?

[Nights King]

I am waiting for the meto final upgrade/downgrade or the warnings today.....

Also will the put out flash weather warnings for high ground in corn/devon soon?

[dogs32]

whats the outlook then dogs323232.lol!very light snow in churchdown,clouds look full of it!cold east wind too.

light snow here Rich...very light..

Phillip Avery looked confident for some snow for us later tonight

Edited January 12, 2010 by dogs32

[Dartmoor_Matt]

It is very slow moving, hardly gone anywhere in the last 20mins...

[BristolBlizzard]

i dont know how good sky news weather is ! just now said 10 to 15 cms of snow ( MAYBE ) for westcountry , wales , .

[dogs32]

wow, to my untrained, uneducated and completely amateur eye..... that looks like a LOT of rain on the radar!!

edit: or snow!

lol....Netweather updated the main page

good chance here Ben

Edited January 12, 2010 by dogs32

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Taking in the 06Z models.(GFS based atm, but I will update with NAE)

...

Thanks for the update Iceberg! Will certainly be interesting to see how this one pans out.

[Nights King]

It is very slow moving, hardly gone anywhere in the last 20mins...

Does seem slow considering it should be at somerset by mid afternoon roughly.

[Rich_Clements]

It is very slow moving, hardly gone anywhere in the last 20mins...

Thats why I think Iceburg is correct in that it's going to struggle to get as far as Bristol.

[rich101]

whats the outlook then dogs323232.lol!very light snow in churchdown,clouds look full of it!cold east wind too.

[dogs32]

whats the outlook then dogs323232.lol!very light snow in churchdown,clouds look full of it!cold east wind too.

Heavy Snow Incoming

Although much of the UK has been experiencing an easing of the cold since the weekend with a thaw of lying snow taking place and showers that were falling just as snow now falling as a wintry mix, the cold spell has at least one more trick up it's sleeve..

It's arriving from the southwest and is at the moment a run of the mill Atlantic weather system with rain and strong winds associated with it. As it bumps into the cold air across the British Isles though, that rain will readily turn to snow bringing some quite substantial falls with as much as 30cm likely over the higher ground of southern England, Wales, the Midlands and Ireland, with 10-20cm possible to lower ground as well.

hrough tomorrow the band edges north into Northern England and Scotland, generally turning back to rain and sleet through southern counties as it does so, but continuing to fall as snow from the Midlands northward in particular.

NETWEATHER UPDATE

Edited January 12, 2010 by dogs32

[rowieboyz]

It is very slow moving, hardly gone anywhere in the last 20mins...

Just looked on meteox and it does not seem to get here till at least 2 o'clock!

Going to be a long 4 hours!

Jase

[Duane S.]

The NAE06z will be interesting! Should be out anytime now I think.

[NickSomerset]

Net weather have us down for Sleet Sleet Sleet and more SLEET.....what has happened to the SNOW!

[David-kig]

Hey iceburg can i ask how many cms south somerset would get??? from the gfs 12z

[Dartmoor_Matt]

[Nights King]

Hey iceburg can i ask how many cms south somerset would get??? from the gfs 12z

I am concerned now that although it will be snow on mendips it will end up being small amounts.