South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[biggiemauls]

Damnit! I was really hoping for something substantial!

[kernowman]

I'm just seeing rain now.  This snow wishing lark is getting on my ***s now.  Bring on Spring so I can forget about wishful thinking.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'm just seeing rain now.  This snow wishing lark is getting on my ***s now.  Bring on Spring so I can forget about wishful thinking.

To be fair in South West Cornwall snow must be pretty rare.

[Iceberg]

It all looks very similar to last night to me going by the 00Z's.

Less marginal for areas somerset eastwards, higher potential totals in Devon, still 5cms on average, more in places (GFS still going for 10-15cm on average)

Still some uncertainty about whether it will reach Bristol or not, as Bristol is right on the line. Cardiff Yes, Bath Yes, Bristol maybe if it does totals could be 1-5cms.

Key areas still South Wales, South Devon, Somerset.

[West is Best]

Very heavy ppn approaching.

The GFS has had this as rain/sleet all the time for Devon and Cornwall, and this remains my hunch. Personally I'm fed up with the snow and will be happy to see it washed away now.

However, the 75 miles or so on the leading edge before it sheers away could see substantial snowfall. It all depends where that will be. Somerset? Cotswolds? or Devon?

Edit Iceberg: very much doubt south Devon would see snow: rain there. Dartmoor and north Devon will be colder and not so affected by the sea. Still reckon rain/sleet.

Edited January 12, 2010 by West is Best

[Iceberg]

I think the prime bit on South Devon (South Hams is likely to be the bit with Dartmoor in it, over high ground).

Agree you about the lower ground of S.Hams

[SteveB]

Well Ian's forecast was a bit of a surprise, mentioning only snow on high ground with rain and sleet at lower levels. Big downgrade there then.

Edited January 12, 2010 by SteveB

[WESTERN SNOWS]

It all looks very similar to last night to me going by the 00Z's.

Less marginal for areas somerset eastwards, higher potential totals in Devon, still 5cms on average, more in places (GFS still going for 10-15cm on average)

Still some uncertainty about whether it will reach Bristol or not, as Bristol is right on the line. Cardiff Yes, Bath Yes, Bristol maybe if it does totals could be 1-5cms.

Key areas still South Wales, South Devon, Somerset.

im not quite sure how bristol can miss it if ya saying cardiff will get it and bath will get it and bristol a maybe? bath is south east of bristol and cardiff is north west of bristol were in the middle its impossible for bristol to miss it and anyways the national forecast had bristol right in the zone all white shaded area all night and first part of wednesday morning

[khodds]

I wonder why ian has backed down tho?

The radar looks impressive! I'm still praying!

[Dorset_Weather]

I think it has been downgraded but mainly because of all the uncertainty surrounding it.

GFS hasn't downgraded it and they maybe downgrading it after the mess they made on Sunday.

Just keep an eye on the radar

[Rich_Clements]

It seems to be taking ages to get to Lands End, it seems to of only moved 100 miles since last night, i am wondering if it's slowing down as it's buffering up against the cold block. I think Cardiff, Bristol area will be as far as the PPN gets before It slinks off SE. This is reflected in the forecasted temps for my area they are cooler than yesterday for the end of the week and given a couple more days could see them down to 3c during the day.

Edit: Just to add I think it's all to play for next week after a milder day on Sunday.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Tribe3000

[dancing daisy]

Do you think Ian has secret info? grrrrr, flipping weathermen hey! I have a hunch that he knows people in weather centres and gets his information from them OR the weather cones aren't showing snow this morning!

I wouldn't take it personally people, I doubt very much that he has downgraded the snow for his own entertainment, although if he has been on here I suspect that all the hysteria surrounding this 'rain event' has given him a giggle! Actualy scratch that, it's probably just me that is finding it funny.

I'm off to get my brolly now and go to work.

Have a nice day radar watching the rain guys!

[Rich_Clements]

Do you think Ian has secret info? grrrrr, flipping weathermen hey! I have a hunch that he knows people in weather centres and gets his information from them OR the weather cones aren't showing snow this morning!

I wouldn't take it personally people, I doubt very much that he has downgraded the snow for his own entertainment, although if he has been on here I suspect that all the hysteria surrounding this 'rain event' has given him a giggle! Actualy scratch that, it's probably just me that is finding it funny.

I'm off to get my brolly now and go to work.

Have a nice day radar watching the rain guys!

I don't think Ian has secret info, he's just a cautious level headed guy.

[john mac]

Just seen the bbc forcast and it looked like rain for anyone west of plymouth im afraid. Things could still change though

[Paul T]

3.3oC in Plymouth, this will drop to around 2.5 as the ppn approaches (if models are to be believed), as i said yesterday - over 300 metres and your laughing.

Actuallyafter thinking about it, i am slightly suprised thats its only 3.3oC in Plymouth, to me this could bring the snow to a lot of south west places. this temp is on the coast, around 20m asl, and very accurate; Snow even down to 150m in south devon if the temp does drop a little....?

Another nearly event for Plymouth.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Paul T

[dancing daisy]

I don't think Ian has secret info, he's just a cautious level headed guy.

No Way!

I am just waiting to watch the weather forecast before I go to work and if he doesn't forecast snow for us all then I for one am never watching the BBC ever again!

[Karen Ann]

I think this is very much a wait and see situation. We had snizzle, grauple, rain and snow flurries yesterday all within a few hours so I'm thinking anything could happen. As said previously by others - last Feb we had two snow events here that were forecast by all as rain, so you never know.

Personally, how things are at the moment, I think it'll be rain for us - it just doesn't feel cold enough.

[BristolBlizzard]

from tc .

[Bristawl Si]

Just saw Ian's forecast at 7.30 - what a downer! Anyone know, in weather speak, exactly what's happened?

I can only presume the milder air behind the system is getting 'mixed' in quicker than first thought and turning everything to rain - maybe a bit of snow on leading edge.

I guess the south easterlies that were coming off the continent over the top of the LP system have got slightly warmer, maybe?

Maybe Nick Sussex, one of the NW 'experts', who was popping in and out yday eve will explain later.

[West is Best]

I've been watching the GFS for some days and it has always had this as rain in Devon and Cornwall. A little further east into north Somerset/Gloucestershire and it has shown snow but not for the south-west peninsular. I could never see why the Met O thought this was going to be snow. GFS certainly never did: upper air temps just don't support a snow event.

That remains my view: rain. Perhaps some sleety stuff on the very tops of Dartmoor and certainly Exmoor might see a bit of wet snow.

The cold spell endeth for Devon and Cornwall ...

Edited January 12, 2010 by West is Best

[BristolBlizzard]

just saw ian on bbc1 , not sure if rain sleet snow ! hes very uncertain he said but showed the band reaches bristol . im just going to watch radar and see , who ever gets snow enjoy it .

[Kiwi]

3.3oC in Plymouth, this will drop to around 2.5 as the ppn approaches (if models are to be believed), as i said yesterda- over 300 metres and your laughing.

Another nearly event for Plymouth.

I don't envisage getting much at all from this up her in hampshire.

At least you'll get some good falls up on Dartmoor. Jump in your car, head up on the moor and hours of fun!

I was at Plymouth Poly in the 80s and remember many snowy moorland adventures followed by a beer or two at the plume of feathers in Princetown.

[Bristawl Si]

I've been watching the GFS for some days and it has always had this as rain in Devon and Cornwall. A little further east into north Somerset/Gloucestershire and it has shown snow but not for the south-west peninsular. I could never see why the Met O thought this was going to be snow. GFS certainly never did: upper air temps just don't support a snow event.

That remains my view: rain. Perhaps some sleety stuff on the very tops of Dartmoor and certainly Exmoor might see a bit of wet snow.

The cold spell endeth for Devon and Cornwall ...

Amazing, isn't it WIB, how most people on here slag off the GFS, but watch every run with intent! However, when it comes to say 48 hours and nearer the 'event' it seems v.accurate to me.

What's your take on what has exactly happened overnight though with the marginality of this event?

Nick S seemed to be saying yday eve that the colder air off the continent would keep most of the precipitation as snow, even though the upper temps weren't that cold. Or was it always v.marginal in your view?

[nick sussex]

Just saw Ian's forecast at 7.30 - what a downer! Anyone know, in weather speak, exactly what's happened?

I can only presume the milder air behind the system is getting 'mixed' in quicker than first thought and turning everything to rain - maybe a bit of snow on leading edge.

I guess the south easterlies that were coming off the continent over the top of the LP system have got slightly warmer, maybe?

Maybe Nick Sussex, one of the NW 'experts', who was popping in and out yday eve will explain later.

Latest dew points and temps from Northern France which is where the se flow will be sourced still look good, the precip is likely to move through slowly and pivot slightly as the shortwave forms and runs east along the Channel, it's just seeing how the precip holds up as it it moves eastwards, precip should start as snow in your location.

[Bristawl Si]

Latest dew points and temps from Northern France which is where the se flow will be sourced still look good, the precip is likely to move through slowly and pivot slightly as the shortwave forms and runs east along the Channel, it's just seeing how the precip holds up as it it moves eastwards, precip should start as snow in your location.

Cheers Nick. Ian F didn't seem confident, shall we say, on our local forecast earlier.

Most of SW will get rain apparently. How could it all change so quickly in space of a few hours? Or is there another twist to come yet?

Must log off now, before the boss arrives.