South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[snowlight robbery]

Time to head off now - got to be up early tomorrow. Nice to meet a few from Darzet, 'nite all

Me too,never know might be a late one tomorrow on here,nighty night all.

[snow go zone]

Me too,never know might be a late one tomorrow on here,nighty night all.

Sounds like a good idea! Best not to expect anything then we will be pleasantly surprised! Night all x

[Dorset_Weather]

I can say from experience that most of the hills hurt a lot - those sheep tracks on the hillside are a lot rougher when you go over them on the way down - hence I prefer the roads at night!!! Just seen BBC S and they are now saying rain on the coast so I think we shall have to wait a week or two.

Wow, where have all the fellow Dorset folk sprung from...lol.

I head for Maiden Castle in Dorch after a good snow fall

There is far to much wrist slitting in here tonight, I don't think there will be massive amounts but I think we will get a good covering. don't read to much into what people a saying, most of it is going to be down to what the models are saying in the morning and now casting I'm afraid.

[David-kig]

what are you guys on bout gfs18z shows 13mm here bettween 00 - 06z

[BristolBlizzard]

Can't believe there's still a good chance of more snow to come I hope places who haven't seen much snow get pasted tomorrow. I'll be happy with a decent snow shower and not too bothered if it turns milder by the end of the week. If there's a decent snow event in February will easily be the best winter since I remember.

[David-kig]

NAE 5-21 cm here 8cm NAE gfs 13 cm

wheres ians 2cm come from????

[rowieboyz]

Just seen the latest BBC weather, seems to be a big downgrade for most of the south west apart from higher ground. No where near the snow totals that were talked about.

I would not be surprised to see this downgraded even further but I hope not. Maybe peeps further n orth will do better.

Good luck all.

Jase

[Mark]

As a brief diversion from the completely pointless predictions for snow tomorrow...

Can someone explain the reason for the phantom netweather radar image that appears almost permanetly about 4 miles north of wells. I know that there will always be some element of error in what is produced by the radar (especially the random radar echos across Wiltshire and Dorset), but the one circled in the image below is almost continuous and rather puzzling.

Ok, ignore me. While typing this I suddenly realised what it probably is - the Mendip Transmitter. Its about 300m high on top of at least 300m ground height so that must be it. Certainly makes it look like a micro climate on the radar

Please continue your speculation :wacko:

[Evening thunder]

Oh great so yep it's suddenly downgraded to for a mainly hills only event for most of the South West, According to the latest BBC graphics from the MetO, The latest NAE etc. - Odd how I saw this for the last 3 days!!! it has to be said. :wacko:

Edit: Just to add my snow melt is really speeding up now.. Seems to be not that much left now even though it was far better still earlier this evening! now up to 3.1c.

Edited January 11, 2010 by StormMad26

[OldBloke]

Main rain band now showing on the latest meteox radar. Looks like it will be in earlier than forcast. Temperature still just above zero and a thaw still in place..and this is at 950ft eastern side of Dartmoor. Why am I thinking Mr Fish in all this? Should be a very interesting 12 hours indeed.

[SizzlingHeat]

Oh great so yep it's suddenly downgraded to for a mainly hills only event for most of the South West, According to the latest BBC graphics from the MetO, The latest NAE etc. - Odd how I saw this for the last 3 days!!! it has to be said. :wacko:

oh it will be a hills event temps and dew points are on the other side of marginal it has to be said. Thats why i havent posted on here and will not get exited by this rubbish the bbc are saying with warnings etc.

I do remember saying about last sunday that it would end up a day of snizzle whilst some people were taking the bbc graphics well over the top but it was clear from the gfs it was going to be a poor event and it was

[Lynxus]

As a brief diversion from the completely pointless predictions for snow tomorrow...

Can someone explain the reason for the phantom netweather radar image that appears almost permanetly about 4 miles north of wells. I know that there will always be some element of error in what is produced by the radar (especially the random radar echos across Wiltshire and Dorset), but the one circled in the image below is almost continuous and rather puzzling.

Ok, ignore me. While typing this I suddenly realised what it probably is - the Mendip Transmitter. Its about 300m high on top of at least 300m ground height so that must be it. Certainly makes it look like a micro climate on the radar

Please continue your speculation :wacko:

Probably anaprop. Normally seen in the summer. ( Like you said, maybe a transmitter in this case )

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1120&posts=5

Edited January 11, 2010 by Lynxus

[Nights King]

Oh my word the other half is asleep so i thought id just check out how my 20cm is looking and what..........

Please fill me in on the bad news?

Every ******* time it goes pear shaped.

[OldBloke]

I know what you mean SH...yesterday the BBC were saying *odd snow flurries* all day..and that was even after one of these *odd snow flurries* had dumped another 2.5" over a period of 4 hours!!

[Lynxus]

I know what you mean SH...yesterday the BBC were saying *odd snow flurries* all day..and that was even after one of these *odd snow flurries* had dumped another 2.5" over a period of 4 hours!!

Ah ok, so these blizzards / heavy ppn could be the end of the world?

COOL.

:wacko:

[OldBloke]

No..but the flooding afterwards could be! The ground has been frozen for nearly 2 months now..God help those who live near river courses when it all goes horribly wrong.

[Lynxus]

No..but the flooding afterwards could be! The ground has been frozen for nearly 2 months now..God help those who live near river courses when it all goes horribly wrong.

This is something ive been saying for a good few days now.

if we get the snow then fine however on fri / sat theres a chance of heavy rain ( if theres no reload or any colder air )

This landing on 0m surfaces that are probably around 2c will just melt the ice and cause quite an influx for water.

While i dont want the cold to stop theres a few things i have in mind that i just want to sort / want to happen.

- Cold to end, So i can wash the salt off my car and fix my misses wheel.

- Cold to carry on, so i can watch the snow :wacko:

- Dont forget , This is only 1/2 of Jan.. We dont normally see COLD until feb march..

- Theres been hardly any frosts so far, so in terms of cold ( Its been mild ) if that makes sense?

- Giggity

On that note, NN all.

Ive got a early start and hopefully my new N900 will be delivered tomorrow ( was meant to be today.. Shakes fist at the weather .. )

Edited January 11, 2010 by Lynxus

[rowieboyz]

No..but the flooding afterwards could be! The ground has been frozen for nearly 2 months now..God help those who live near river courses when it all goes horribly wrong.

Very good point old bloke, I remember the thaw after feb09 here, I have never seen so much water on the roads up here and that is saying something.

Jase

[Nights King]

After having a look it doesn't look to bad for snow still really but the morning models are going to be the ones to see i feel.

-1.2c here at the moment which is good because it will make sure that laying snow will be nice and frozen so won't thaw much tomoro even if it climbs to 1c ish

Would be nice for an upgrade in morning though.

[OldBloke]

The thaw might not have got underway proper when the rains come, if the cold air is reintroduced. If we get the possible 2" of rain precip' falling onto frozen ground, the run off will be something else..for the ground will not be able to soak it up. If it rains onto the lying snow and melts that lying snow....man the lifeboats. The ground wasn't frozen in Feb' last year.

[Duane S.]

I didn't realize I had overslept and missed it all?? The amount of people who watch/see/hear something on the net/tv/radio and take it as gospel until they hear something else.

To my eyes not a lot has changed, in fact I would say it has stayed remarkably the same. Away from the coasts, predomantely in the SW, mainly on the hills. Snow that is.

My 20% chance of something a bit more substantial remains as well I would say!

[snowking]

Just to add those worries about temps at the moment - this will happen tonight. The flow for you is more southerly at present off the atlantic....overnight itll switch to more of a SE/ESEly as we pull in cooler air from the continent

Might initially be rain/sleet at lower levels across the SW, but should turn to snow as the heavier precip kicks in

SK

[biggiemauls]

Have no idea whats going on at the moment, is it still likely to be tomorrow afternoon/night? Or could it be earlier if we get anything at all?

[Schmac]

As some have already said on here, it's going to be a nowcast type situation, with regards to the snowfall...

The forecast (late on Saturday night) for Trowbridge was for "light but persistent snow" for most of Sunday, with today being dry...

What actually happened?...

Didn't see a single flake all day Sunday... And today?... Had very light snow falling from the sky nearly all day!!!

Also, don't forget that last night some places around Bristol and Cheltenham (and Swindon) saw some breif but fairly heavy snow showers that weren't forecast (as far as I remember)!...

Even Fiona from Melksham said on here last night that they had a heavy snow shower (although there was nothing just down the road here!)...

I'm just going to wait until tomorrow to see what happens... Been pleasantly surprised when we've had nothing forecast and bitterly disappointed when we've been warned of a "major event"!!!

I fully understand though what a headache this causes for weather forecasters... It's nearly always a marginal thing... Either loads of snow, loads of rain, or naff all!!

Edited January 12, 2010 by Schmac

[Matty-H]

Ian Fergusson continues the downgrade:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/

Snow for high ground across Devon/Cornwall. Rain for lower ground. Some light snow for more northern West Country areas

Edited January 12, 2010 by Matty-H