South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[rowieboyz]

Thanks guys.

I was thinking about just keeping them home. Rgearding the school calling, if it does not snow where they go to school(which is off the moor and much lower than here) they probably won't tell us to pick them up. It has happened before, and driving across the moor with your kids in the car during a blizzard is not fun.

Keep them home I think.

Jase

[Rich_Clements]

Still very much game on then.

Sorry for the IMBYism :lol:

Hell why not, I would be if I were in your position. :lol:

[dancing daisy]

Thanks guys.

I was thinking about just keeping them home. Rgearding the school calling, if it does not snow where they go to school(which is off the moor and much lower than here) they probably won't tell us to pick them up. It has happened before, and driving across the moor with your kids in the car during a blizzard is not fun.

Keep them home I think.

Jase

The school will be in touch with regional weather offices and the local police. I would therefore imagine that they will close school if the forecast pans out as expected. Check with your local radio station in the morning. Our school closures are reported quite quickly on Heart fm, we find that the BBC is quite a bit slower.

I am sure if you ring your children's school in the morning they will be quite understanding about the situation. It's hardly a scive is it! :lol:

[aspire27]

Once again i will say it. After the GFS at 3.30 a Massive Downgrade for snow potential for Gloucester.

I said this before Ians blog update, but again nobody listened.

Also a downgrade for North Somerset (my area) Bristol etc.

Kept saying this.

BIG BIG BUT...this evolution is great in my opinion for increases the chances of cold holding out until a re-load next week.

LP's diving in France...perfect..........This means the BLOCK IS TRYING TO HOLD OUT.

Just shows how strong this block could possibly be.

[West is Best]

Damn going by that N devon will loose alot of snow due to dartmoor.

Which is what the Met Office said would happen last February: when we got a dumping.

Hardly any of them seem to know much about the climate and topography of north Devon. Actually I'm not sure they know we exist! They don't seem to realise, for instance, how high the ground can be between Dartmoor and Hartland. I think that shows on the latest map on Ian's blog. Go north from Dartmoor and, yes, you get dips but you get some serious hilly sections too so that the 'shadow effect' can be absolutely non-existent. Areas around Hartland/Shebbear/Petrockstowe across in an arc round to Whiddon Down are high: over 600ft in places. Yesterday our heavy snowfall was completely ignored on the weather reports: it's as if it didn't happen.

I find the GFS precipitation charts surprisingly accurate for us: not infrequently more so than the Met Office. Last Feb the GFS had it spot on for us.

Edited January 11, 2010 by West is Best

[Rich_Clements]

BIG BIG BUT...this evolution is great in my opinion for increases the chances of cold holding out until a re-load next week.

LP's diving in France...perfect..........This means the BLOCK IS TRYING TO HOLD OUT.

Just shows how strong this block could possibly be.

Thats what I am thinking

[Iceberg]

I think Ian's blog helps to give a bit a realism, but it's important to remember that the METO have twice now massively over estimated the amount of snow in the SW, they won't want to make a third time, equally they will forecast what they think likely (in this case my take is that Ian is forecasting what is 80% likely and is largely based on the 12Z NAE).

Amount of 30-40 cms have been quoted on here, but only in respect to what some models are showing for very small limited areas of the SW.

However even after saying the above, if you take a weigted blend of the precip forecasts from the 12Z (giving UAE 8/10, ECM 6/10, GFS OPS 5/10 etc) then you still get an average of 5cms away from the far south coast, distributed as Ian has put on his picture.

If you get 2cms be content.

If you get 5cms be very happy.

More than 5cms be amazed.

Less than 2cms look forward to the next cold spell in a week to 10 days time. !

[westysweather]

i cant make out the figure that relates to the marker around exeter area? anyone got better eysight then me?

[snow go zone]

Thanks guys.

I was thinking about just keeping them home. Rgearding the school calling, if it does not snow where they go to school(which is off the moor and much lower than here) they probably won't tell us to pick them up. It has happened before, and driving across the moor with your kids in the car during a blizzard is not fun.

Keep them home I think.

Jase

Speaking from a teachers point of view, last wednesday when it snowed here we were very aware of the children who lived further out and called their parents immediately. We are a very rural school and cover 4 villages in 3 bases. We managed to 'evacuate' all children in an hour on 4 different bus trips. Likewise, those parents who saw it coming phoned in first to ask if they could pick their children up. If it doesn't snow it would be a shame for them to miss I day, I know it doesn't seem like much but they may miss an important chunk of work. Soz, that sounds really dull doesn't it. I'm hoping for snow as much as the rest!!!

[Rich_Clements]

Thing is Ian posted that at 2pm today, things have moved on a little since, but I think it will not be far off.

[WESTERN SNOWS]

I think Ian's blog helps to give a bit a realism, but it's important to remember that the METO have twice now massively over estimated the amount of snow in the SW, they won't want to make a third time, equally they will forecast what they think likely (in this case my take is that Ian is forecasting what is 80% likely and is largely based on the 12Z NAE).

Amount of 30-40 cms have been quoted on here, but only in respect to what some models are showing for very small limited areas of the SW.

However even after saying the above, if you take a weigted blend of the precip forecasts from the 12Z (giving UAE 8/10, ECM 6/10, GFS OPS 5/10 etc) then you still get an average of 5cms away from the far south coast, distributed as Ian has put on his picture.

If you get 2cms be content.

If you get 5cms be very happy.

More than 5cms be amazed.

Less than 2cms look forward to the next cold spell in a week to 10 days time. !

too be honest theres so many different forecasts about tomorrow flying around the best bet in my book is to wait till the LP arrives and see exactly where it is and how far west or east it is before we make final judgements on how much were gonna get depending on the area your in.

[BristolBlizzard]

too be honest theres so many different forecasts about tomorrow flying around the best bet in my book is to wait till the LP arrives and see exactly where it is and how far west or east it is before we make final judgements on how much were gonna get depending on the area your in.

very wise words :lol:

[West is Best]

I think Ian's blog helps to give a bit a realism, but it's important to remember that the METO have twice now massively over estimated the amount of snow in the SW,

Not here they haven't so be careful about this blanket 'SW'. We had another dumping yesterday which was totally unforecast by the MetO, but which the GFS ppn charts got spot on.

Oh and did I mention last February?!

[WESTERN SNOWS]

very wise words

the way i look at it is what ever happens tomorrow we have had a great couple of weeks more than we could ever have wished for at the start of the winter and with more to come by the looks of it beofre this winter is out im very contented with what ever i get im really happy we are finally seeing a proper winter makes up for all the crappy ones in recent years:rolleyes:

[noggin]

Latest Beeb forecast still not picking up the shortwave/little low that may form that some NW members have been alluding to in posts later this afternoon.

Hi, BB. What's this shortwave/little low thing all about?

Does it bode well for us here?

I'm actually beginning to feel a bit more optimistic!

P.S. Hi, doggy!

[nick sussex]

Which is what the Met Office said would happen last February: when we got a dumping.

Hardly any of them seem to know much about the climate and topography of north Devon. Actually I'm not sure they know we exist! They don't seem to realise, for instance, how high the ground can be between Dartmoor and Hartland. I think that shows on the latest map on Ian's blog. Go north from Dartmoor and, yes, you get dips but you get some serious hilly sections too so that the 'shadow effect' can be absolutely non-existent. Areas around Hartland/Shebbear/Petrockstowe across in an arc round to Whiddon Down are high: over 600ft in places. Yesterday our heavy snowfall was completely ignored on the weather reports: it's as if it didn't happen.

I find the GFS precipitation charts surprisingly accurate for us: not infrequently more so than the Met Office. Last Feb the GFS had it spot on for us.

I agree yesterday when snow was falling heavily they were still going on about flurries! The whole weekend from the UKMO was pretty poor IMO with the bbc team obviously not communicating with the UKMO, they were giving out forecasts for heavy snow in the se when it was blatantly obvious from the radar that for the SE it wasn't going to happen.

[Paul T]

GEM shortwave Would increase the chances of snowfall, where it is currently marginal.

I have attached below a chart of where the potential lies, its based on whats happend over the recent weeks, and alot of expert, first hand knowledge.

[kumquat]

LOL - nice Omega block over Plymouth

[biggiemauls]

LOL!!

[noggin]

30cms around the fishponds area

Have you been drinking?

[snowking]

Blimney! Far too much pessimism on here tonight, where's nick with that prozac...might need to crack it open early

Latest NAE precip totals to hour 48

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis18/ukuk/rsum/10011318_1118.gif

Just waiting for the other charts to update now

SK

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Have you been drinking? :)

its my own personal forecast and im going with it lmao:whistling:

[noggin]

very true and east is least:drinks:

We need a "snigger" smiley. I suppose the model output thread is dead as it's not a London/SE event!

[WESTERN SNOWS]

:):clap:

We need a "snigger" smiley. I suppose the model output thread is dead as it's not a London/SE event!

[egret]

Speaking from a teachers point of view, last wednesday when it snowed here we were very aware of the children who lived further out and called their parents immediately. We are a very rural school and cover 4 villages in 3 bases. We managed to 'evacuate' all children in an hour on 4 different bus trips. Likewise, those parents who saw it coming phoned in first to ask if they could pick their children up. If it doesn't snow it would be a shame for them to miss I day, I know it doesn't seem like much but they may miss an important chunk of work. Soz, that sounds really dull doesn't it. I'm hoping for snow as much as the rest!!!

do I read it right (guessing the School) that some of your children get to go tobogganing on Bulbarrow then? lucky so and so's if they do - I struggle to get up there when I can for some of the best runs in Dorset.