South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[SteveB]

from tc .

That's interesting in the 90% chance then, all still to play for I guess.

[BristolBlizzard]

Latest dew points and temps from Northern France which is where the se flow will be sourced still look good, the precip is likely to move through slowly and pivot slightly as the shortwave forms and runs east along the Channel, it's just seeing how the precip holds up as it it moves eastwards, precip should start as snow in your location.

thanks nick ,bbc1 weather carol just said could be 5cms or so ect ect round bristol - cardiff.

[microclimate]

We had unexpected snow here yesterday morning despite being on the coast so we can never say never. Gut feeling though is if the precip arrives too early it will be rain and stay as rain. The temp has gone up by 0.7c since yesterday which has made the snow event a lot less likely.

[West is Best]

Amazing, isn't it WIB, how most people on here slag off the GFS, but watch every run with intent! However, when it comes to say 48 hours and nearer the 'event' it seems v.accurate to me.

What's your take on what has exactly happened overnight though with the marginality of this event?

Nick S seemed to be saying yday eve that the colder air off the continent would keep most of the precipitation as snow, even though the upper temps weren't that cold. Or was it always v.marginal in your view?

I think it was always rain/sleet for Devon and Cornwall. Couldn't see how the Met O thought what they did. Maybe you will get some though in your neck of the woods?

[Snowkissed]

I think this is very much a wait and see situation. We had snizzle, grauple, rain and snow flurries yesterday all within a few hours so I'm thinking anything could happen. As said previously by others - last Feb we had two snow events here that were forecast by all as rain, so you never know.

Personally, how things are at the moment, I think it'll be rain for us - it just doesn't feel cold enough.

Just seen the BBC South Today weather forecast and you can see the dreaded 'arch' around Bmth, Poole, Swanage, which we saw last week when we were expecting the 40cm of snow! I agree with you Karen, at the moment it is too warm for snow, but as Iceberg has suggested the temp will drop with the on coming rain. Fingers and toes crossed for a miracle

[jazzy]

Morning all Well it is very dark and very windy here(just blown our sand pit lid across the garden, temp still too high 3.5 praying that temp will drop. Gut feeling it is going to be very heavy,cold rain here but hoping for a miracle.

[BristolBlizzard]

the rain sleet snow gets into westcountry after dark maybe this may help to ! lower temps , dew points . im not going to worry tell truth as i think we have had a good share up to some years.

[westysweather]

the temp here has dropped too 2c and the dew point down to -1, these have both steadily dropped since the early hours, this is a goo sign i know but what is the maximum of each before any snow chance dissapears?

[Mark Parsons]

We had unexpected snow here yesterday morning despite being on the coast so we can never say never. Gut feeling though is if the precip arrives too early it will be rain and stay as rain. The temp has gone up by 0.7c since yesterday which has made the snow event a lot less likely.

Yes was a suprise to see that snow. Temps border line at the mo and dp is low enough having said that it is warmer now than it has been for days, maybe snowfall near coast later but wont settle, pop up Eggardon Hill or go over to Broadwindsor etc you will see some proper snow there tonight!

the temp here has dropped too 2c and the dew point down to -1, these have both steadily dropped since the early hours, this is a goo sign i know but what is the maximum of each before any snow chance dissapears?

The temps you have are cold enough with heavy ppn to produce snow but may not settle!

[westysweather]

but we arent due it for a while yet, so if they were to both drop a bit more this would be really good?

[Mark Parsons]

but we arent due it for a while yet, so if they were to both drop a bit more this would be really good?

Well dont think it will drop anymore until the ppn arrives then it might only drop 0.5 dont get to excited just yet and dont be suprised if it rains before turning to snow!

[Snowman15]

Metoffice article yesterday quotes ' The snow is likely to turn to rain across much of Cornwall and on the southern coasts of south-west England and South Wales on Tuesday evening.'

I thought the rain was ment to turn to snow Tuesday Evening and then possibly back to rain on Wednesday? well thats what the NetW article states anyway!

[Mark Parsons]

Metoffice article yesterday quotes ' The snow is likely to turn to rain across much of Cornwall and on the southern coasts of south-west England and South Wales on Tuesday evening.'

I thought the rain was ment to turn to snow Tuesday Evening and then possibly back to rain on Wednesday? well thats what the NetW article states anyway!

Its old news mate!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Morning all

A steady thaw last night it seems, despite the low temps, but still a good covering.

However BBC forecst earlier was a little bit of downer.

Oh well, was fun while it lasted!

I've been watching the GFS for some days and it has always had this as rain in Devon and Cornwall. A little further east into north Somerset/Gloucestershire and it has shown snow but not for the south-west peninsular. I could never see why the Met O thought this was going to be snow. GFS certainly never did: upper air temps just don't support a snow event.

That remains my view: rain. Perhaps some sleety stuff on the very tops of Dartmoor and certainly Exmoor might see a bit of wet snow.

The cold spell endeth for Devon and Cornwall ...

WiB: to be fair though the GFS was saying 4C for Dartmoor today as late as yesterday, on todays runs its max is 1c. So it was hardly blindly accurate.

However I agree, being stuck out in the Altlantic we do suffer more from the error for margin than most... on the plus its gorgeous in the summer

[Lynxus]

Morning all

..

on the plus its gorgeous in the summer

Really? lol

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Really? lol

Well, perhaps not summer... but late April to late June and September... generally sunny, warm...somtimes hot... and fewer tourists blocking the roads with their inability to drive in general and reverse in particular

[rowieboyz]

Temp -0.5C and very windy

I have not looked at the forecast this morning and I am not going to either, I am just going to wait and see what happens.

Jase

I did send my kids to school this morning after the downgrade last night, just been informed that they are closing the school at 1225 this afternoon.

Jase

[Rich_Clements]

Well, perhaps not summer... but late April to late June and September... generally sunny, warm...somtimes hot... and fewer tourists blocking the roads with their inability to drive in general and reverse in particular

LOL

PNN turning sleaty as it makes landfall, Exeter seems to be some sort of boundry at the moment but the heavy stuff is over St. Ives Penzance at the moment. I would imagine it turning more readily to snow once it peps up a bit.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Temp -0.5C and very windy

I have not looked at the forecast this morning and I am not going to either, I am just going to wait and see what happens.

Jase

-0.3C here and crucially the DP is -1.4C, and both are trending downwards.

Also blowing a gale.

[Nights King]

very slight thaw just thinking about kicking in now. temp 0.4c and feels warm too.

Looking forward to watching that ppn march towards me this afternoon.

Be interesting to get reports from you matt as this system makes landfall as were about the same height.

Edited January 12, 2010 by mullender83

[rowieboyz]

-0.3C here and crucially the DP is -1.4C, and both are trending downwards.

Also blowing a gale.

Hi Matt

Any idea what time it is likely to arrive here?

[Rich_Clements]

Hi Matt

Any idea what time it is likely to arrive here?

Looking at the Netweather radar it,s made Landfall in the past half hour, I reckon it will be with you in the next hour or so.

[dogs32]

Really? lol

cold enough for snow here,light snow in the wind at times.

Edited January 12, 2010 by dogs32

[SouthernSnow]

Temps are rising a bit again, on the local paper saying were set for a blizzard from midday then on bbc it just says cloudy...wtf?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

very slight thaw just thinking about kicking in now. temp 0.4c and feels warm too.

Looking forward to watching that ppn march towards me this afternoon.

Be interesting to get reports from you matt as this system makes landfall as were about the same height.

Yup, will do... although should be working (Am also trying to research a new digitl SLR camera (so if anyone has any recommendations....))

Hi Matt

Any idea what time it is likely to arrive here?

The front of the PPN is over the tip of Cornwall at the moment, with the real heavy band somewhere out over the Scillies (ish) Considering it came into radar last night (or seemed to be) it does seem to be moving quite slowly, but i'll update you as it moves over the SW.