Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[NAOwillgetyou]

Too right - the south east gets tons from their easterlies - the scots and north east englanders get theirs from the north easterlies - the north westerlies feed cumbria and north west scotland and north wales and the atlantic dumps it on us!

Am I right in saying that for south wales this is a dream scenario, i mean a stalled atlantic front in the face of cold easterly winds. Its fantastic how it is now but it just makes you appreciate what "could" happen if those easterly winds had a real cold origin!! Still ponty sounds truely fantastic at the mo!!!

[andymusic]

Am I right in saying that for south wales this is a dream scenario, i mean a stalled atlantic front in the face of cold easterly winds. Its fantastic how it is now but it just makes you appreciate what "could" happen if those easterly winds had a real cold origin!! Still ponty sounds truely fantastic at the mo!!!

you won't get that much better than what we have here right now - I am from cardiff originally and can remember winters of old when I used to do my paper round and have to walk in between 4ft drifts (I'm only 44 mind) - and that was near the city centre - so for that to happen that must have been damn severe.

Would you believe we've got a lampost in the front garden outside the house - one we put in - in the style of an old london lamp - very picturesque in the heavy snow drifts - almost like the front of a xmas card!

seems a little unfair but we seem to be getting all the snow here - the sweet spot then - cause once it passes through here it seems to loose it's heaviness - weird!!!!!!!

isn't it weird that if you have two different levels of old snow say on the path and on the grass that once the new snow falls it seems to completely even things out and smooths things out with the virgin snow - strange that

Edited January 13, 2010 by andymusic

[NAOwillgetyou]

you won't get that much better than what we have here right now - I am from cardiff originally and can remember winters of old when I used to do my paper round and have to walk in between 4ft drifts (I'm only 44 mind) - and that was near the city centre - so for that to happen that must have been damn severe.

Would you believe we've got a lampost in the front garden outside the house - one we put in - in the style of an old london lamp - very picturesque in the heavy snow drifts - almost like the front of a xmas card!

Same age as you 44!! was brought up in essex and like you can remember truely cold winters in the 70s and early 80s, really pleased my kid can get to experience this with all the scaremongering about snow being a thing of the past. I really believe that the last couple of years have been a turning point back to winters of old. Just had a phone call from my other half, she is a cop up in maesteg and they have had a real hammering the last few hours!!!

[andymusic]

Same age as you 44!! was brought up in essex and like you can remember truely cold winters in the 70s and early 80s, really pleased my kid can get to experience this with all the scaremongering about snow being a thing of the past. I really believe that the last couple of years have been a turning point back to winters of old. Just had a phone call from my other half, she is a cop up in maesteg and they have had a real hammering the last few hours!!!

probably the same amount as up here I expect - I will repeat again what Joe B has been harping on about recently - solar minima + these negative NAO and AO = blocking patterns = the earth will spiral into a cooling period over the next couple of decades - and global warming will become a thing of the past because this will bring the yearly CETs down - cancelling it out - = winters like these will be much more frequent hopefully annually proper winters - so we become less nuts when the white stuff comes along and accept it as part of the season - we may even learn to deal with driving in it etc and living in it without everything coming to a standstill if we take a few tips off the scandinavian countries

Edited January 13, 2010 by andymusic

[pascalsbongo]

The radar on postcode zoom in is magnificent!

It has been nearly all pink/ dark pink / red for the last god knows how many hours covering a vast region without exception.

If this really is a sign of things to come, then in future our miserable predictable atlantic systems will be most fruitful,and possibly the most venomous set ups for snow fall in Britain.

Does an eastern system ever produce so much precipitation??

That is if the earth does infact cool , and that the atlantic systems would still keep coming.

[andymusic]

Updated radar showing another heavy wadge of snow about to hit us!

The radar on postcode zoom in is magnificent!

It has been nearly all pink/ dark pink / red for the last god knows how many hours covering a vast region without exception.

If this really is a sign of things to come, then in future our miserable predictable atlantic systems will be most fruitful,and possibly the most venomous set ups for snow fall in Britain.

Does an eastern system ever produce so much precipitation??

That is if the earth does infact cool , and that the atlantic systems would still keep coming.

I've known easterlies produce very heavy precip but not really over wales - the eastern counties of england take it all or most of it before we get it - seems the thing with snow - it struggles to keep it together over long land masses

Next set of GFS models will start coming out at 3.30am - the 00z so we'll see if it upgrades the ppn anymore!!!!!

once this front clears through looks like there might be some hefty showers to follow it

Edited January 13, 2010 by andymusic

[NAOwillgetyou]

Updated radar showing another heavy wadge of snow about to hit us!

I've known easterlies produce very heavy precip but not really over wales - the eastern counties of england take it all or most of it before we get it - seems the thing with snow - it struggles to keep it together over long land masses

Next set of GFS models will start coming out at 3.30am - the 00z so we'll see if it upgrades the ppn anymore!!!!!

See what you mean and it looks really heavy too!!

[pascalsbongo]

Updated radar showing another heavy wadge of snow about to hit us!

I've known easterlies produce very heavy precip but not really over wales - the eastern counties of england take it all or most of it before we get it - seems the thing with snow - it struggles to keep it together over long land masses

Next set of GFS models will start coming out at 3.30am - the 00z so we'll see if it upgrades the ppn anymore!!!!!

once this front clears through looks like there might be some hefty showers to follow it

Looking at the radar for existing precip and tracking it in general, it looks like another maybe 4 hours for here, possibly 6 further east before it ends.

Unless the precipitation starts to pivot shortly and head south to north that is.

However should it do so then surely that would more likely introduce the sleet that has been forecast?

[andymusic]

well it looks like it's staying on course right now - no pivoting - but I'll keep an eye out for that

I'm dubious of any "forecast" the beeb put out right now as it's met office based and with these marginal set ups it could go so many ways at various timings so the only sure fire way is watching the radar and checking what's coming out of the sky via your lampost over night!

If this does clear in the next 4 - 6 hours then there's a good chance that it won't switch to sleet/rain at all as it'll still be under the cover of darkness!

Edited January 13, 2010 by andymusic

[NAOwillgetyou]

The radar on postcode zoom in is magnificent!

It has been nearly all pink/ dark pink / red for the last god knows how many hours covering a vast region without exception.

If this really is a sign of things to come, then in future our miserable predictable atlantic systems will be most fruitful,and possibly the most venomous set ups for snow fall in Britain.

Does an eastern system ever produce so much precipitation??

That is if the earth does infact cool , and that the atlantic systems would still keep coming.

as Andy says easterly winds are the equivelent of this set up for eastern england and the london area and home counties. They pick up so much moisture from the north sea then dump it overland. These fonts usually fizzle out way before south wales, typically in berkshire or the swindon area. This today is a battlefront scenario that london can only dream of, I used to live in essex, althoughnot strictly english!!, and very occasionally we would do well out of such a battlefront, if it progressed a little further east. Lovin tonight, South wales really needed this!!

This front really has stalle now its not going anywhere fast!!!

[pascalsbongo]

as Andy says easterly winds are the equivelent of this set up for eastern england and the london area and home counties. They pick up so much moisture from the north sea then dump it overland. These fonts usually fizzle out way before south wales, typically in berkshire or the swindon area. This today is a battlefront scenario that london can only dream of, I used to live in essex, althoughnot strictly english!!, and very occasionally we would do well out of such a battlefront, if it progressed a little further east. Lovin tonight, South wales really needed this!!

What im really saying is, surely the atlantic is much more of a generating force than that of the north sea?

Meaning were it to meet with cold air further south than usual (in cooler winters) then would that provide this area with heavier snow falls than that of the east coast?.

However, in history (last few hundred years),when this is the case , the atlantic is most likely less likely to attack us, going on historical records of the times?

As if that were to be the case, then western and Southern Ireland, and also this region would have a history of severe snowfall in winters long gone.

Catch my drift lol??

By the way the lamp post will just not quit, heavy now.

[andymusic]

as Andy says easterly winds are the equivelent of this set up for eastern england and the london area and home counties. They pick up so much moisture from the north sea then dump it overland. These fonts usually fizzle out way before south wales, typically in berkshire or the swindon area. This today is a battlefront scenario that london can only dream of, I used to live in essex, althoughnot strictly english!!, and very occasionally we would do well out of such a battlefront, if it progressed a little further east. Lovin tonight, South wales really needed this!!

This front really has stalle now its not going anywhere fast!!! - HOPE SO

[pascalsbongo]

Tracking the various radars over the last few hours and it looks likely to end in 3hours i think now.

Maybe a few more further east.

I cant see where anything else is going to come from ? can the back edge extend further back ,and generate more from out at sea??

Its not showing signs that it will do that.

Earlier forecasts would prove to be right , with the main spelll ending at about 6am.

[andymusic]

swansea's about to get another good dumping!

Tracking the various radars over the last few hours and it looks likely to end in 3hours i think now.

Maybe a few more further east.

I cant see where anything else is going to come from ? can the back edge extend further back ,and generate more from out at sea??

Its not showing signs that it will do that.

Earlier forecasts would prove to be right , with the main spelll ending at about 6am.

check sat24 - there seems to be some potent showers behind the front that might come our way - but that's all i can offer

i don't think we can moan though about the amounts we have - it's defo a snow day up here anyway - and i'll be digging my car out tomorrow at the earliest

GFS still has heavyish precip over us at least up till midday today mind!

even up till 6pm but slightly less heavy - so don't ask me what that is?????????

Edited January 13, 2010 by andymusic

[djwayne]

00z has it around til late afternoon early evening fingers crossed

[mrmonopoly]

Let's be honest we are all cold lovers and therefore biased and could be called cold rampers so we have no right to say cold /mild rampers etc, were just all interested in the forecast, Mr Monopoly was wrong for today but eve i said this morning that this would be rain in alot of places it just proves how hard our weather is to predict.

I see you right on that one, this took me by supprise as it did a lot of people. It staying as snow this long as been a shock. The mild air was pushed away a bit further out than I anticipated so a delay in the milder weather making a return. Could have gone either way so happens the low undercut and pushed milder air above the colder air which is probably what triggered a few thunder claps.

Im not a mild camper as I hate mild winters because there damp and cold. I prefer clear and cold. (with odd snow interlute

it be intresting to see what happens to milder air tommorow towards midday and beyond.

[pascalsbongo]

swansea's about to get another good dumping!

check sat24 - there seems to be some potent showers behind the front that might come our way - but that's all i can offer

i don't think we can moan though about the amounts we have - it's defo a snow day up here anyway - and i'll be digging my car out tomorrow at the earliest

GFS still has heavyish precip over us at least up till midday today mind!

even up till 6pm but slightly less heavy - so don't ask me what that is?????????

Looking at the images , the main band is being stretched apart ,hence why its kind of staying here for so long, its possible if it gets sucked further north that the main band could cling on a while longer , after that its the infrequent occasional shower maybe.

And yes its definatly provided this evening!!!

Here in Swansea up our highest hills we even have drifts that nearly match those on higher ground!!!

Very heavy here now.

The net weather radar for me is stuck on 2.35 am lol, im nearly done in , the lamp post has beaten me, another 5 mins and im off lol

[andymusic]

GFS 00z really wants to drag an easterly back in by next tuesday - so we ain't out of the freezer for long

[worldairgroup]

snow seems to have stopped here andy, but I notice that dark band making its way to us shortly! Any ideas of time frame for this hitting us?

[andymusic]

snow seems to have stopped here andy, but I notice that dark band making its way to us shortly! Any ideas of time frame for this hitting us?

seems to be shrinking - I think we may have had the best of it now tonight - but like I said earlier - the GFS wants to continue the party in south wales right into wednesday evening

[worldairgroup]

where do i find the GFS?

[andymusic]

where do i find the GFS?

I use this one but there is a GFS viewer on net weather itself in the free charts section

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[worldairgroup]

I use this one but there is a GFS viewer on net weather itself in the free charts section

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

ah excellent thanks andy! what am i on about i must be going mad! slight brain murmur there! I use http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=uk which seems to be quite good too. i am just crossing fingers this dark band will give us a final covering before daylight!

[andymusic]

ah excellent thanks andy! what am i on about i must be going mad! slight brain murmur there! I use http://www.metvuw.co...=rain&region=uk which seems to be quite good too. i am just crossing fingers this dark band will give us a final covering before daylight!

not sure we need it up here but all flakes taken with thanks - GFS showing lots more potential in the coming days also with a couple of tasty easterlies!

latest radar - seems to be coming ashore now so a little more to come shortly

spose it's moving very slowly now so could give us a final couple of cms

[GreatBarr]

Shame it split into 2... my fun shall me over soon sadly, although its dropped quite abit of snow, do you think the second part of it (what was your first part, but split into 2!) will make it here in North B'ham?