Model Output Discussion

[Tim Bland]

Hmmmmmm what will the occluded front do after saturday, it might push back west and pull in cold air behind it but friday looks a milder day in most areas.

I presume you mean this Fri? Next fri could be UK shut down time again with Heavy widespread snow. Just for the record I don't expect this to happen but i would settle for a mean between the ECM and GFS!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2162.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2164.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png

[Tom D]

Well you can't deny the GFS has been suggesting a northerly in FI for a while now, but I can't help but think it's way too progressive and far too aggressive in bringing that northerly in.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

OK, so where's FI? About T60 (possibly as close as T48) so lets skip well ahead and look at the 500Mb at T216.

Not that's what I call cold, 510 over much of the UK

Of course it will never verify, but even close would be frightening

[John Cox]

Hi JS,

We have to be careful what we wish for.

I know for the past number of years, bar last year, we have had it mild.

I know Cork got some snow recently, and I hope you got some too. We had it really good/bad? in Dublin with 10 days of lying snow, 31st Dec to 10th Jan.

I do think these synoptics will deliver a 2nd blast of V.cold temps but we may have to wait until Feb.

Yes john, but as i say not welcome for our economy or anyone

Snow is fun, but not frozen pipes, fractures & lethal roads

[Frosty.]

I presume you mean this Fri? Next fri could be UK shut down time again with Heavy widespread snow. Just for the record I don't expect this to happen but i would settle for a mean between the ECM and GFS!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2162.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2164.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png

Yes I meant this friday, temps of 8-10c quite widely but then rather lower by saturday at 5-7c. As for the model confusion, my instinct says the ecm is right but i'm praying it's wrong, like 99% of NW members.

[damianslaw]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1804.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

good news for the Northerners with widespread snow showers moving south. Anyone for a polar low? - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

If we had seen these charts (even in in deep Fi) during most winters then this forum would be in meltdown!

Wonderful synoptics - the sort I relish, and the sort we could easily be seeing as we head into Feb, northerlies tend to occur during the second half of winter as opposed to the first half peaking in the Spring - give a me a sustained unstable very cold northerly over a dry easterly any day!

Going back to the battle between the ECM and GFS, will be interesting to see where the UKMO pitches itself over the next couple of days, today it has sided with GFS and the Met have been hinting at cold for early next week, the GFS may well continue to stick to its guns with the easterly scecnario, if the UKMO continues to follow suit, mmm you'd have to begin to think the ECM is wrong.. very interesting model watching at the moment.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think we might be underestimating the cold being shown early next week

Never mind the uppers, that looks like back to ice days to me which will not be welcome

Just look at the minima's over Germany, indeed the maxima's too!!

The models are all over the place at the moment.

The following is however quite clear:

1) There is no proper cold spell showing up with any consistency

2) The bartlett option, though almost banned on here,is showing up quite often in FI charts

3) All the signs are that most of February will be mild.

JS With posts like this people will never take you seriously , these 2 posts within an hour or so of each other are a total contradiction . You have been on here long enough to make more sense than this. I would also like to know if when you post on here are they relating to your personal area as things can be very different in Southern Ireland from London for example .

Edited January 20, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[Tim Bland]

Yes I meant this friday, temps of 8-10c quite widely but then rather lower by saturday at 5-7c. As for the model confusion, my instinct says the ecm is right but i'm praying it's wrong, like 99% of NW members.

I sense you may be a mild ramper frosty!? No harm in that, i'm a self confessed cold ramper lol! Just seems a bit strange that after viewing an epic 18z you can only comment on slightly milder air on Fri! I think the occluded front will peter out over the North sea but may aid instability to bring convective wintry showers for Sun as the cold uppers dig in. My instinct is ECM is wrong and I'm praying its wrong !

Here is my latest thoughts / Ramp for Friday - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100120/18/216/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100120/18/216/maxtemp.png

Edited January 20, 2010 by Tim Bland

[John Cox]

Hi snowmadchrisuk

I agree with you.

But... You have to see it from JS's point of view.

Cork, in Ireland is really hard to get snow.

I would prefer to be in London x 4 compared to Cork with regards to getting snow.

He (forgive me JS if I am wrong) will look to all models for any sign for a snow opportunity. (Me too)

JS With posts like this people will never take you seriously , these 2 posts within an hour or so of each other are a total contradiction . You have been on here long enough to make more sense than this. I would also like to know if when you post on here are they relating to your personal area as things can be very different in Southern Ireland from London for example .

[aspire27]

I sense you may be a mild ramper frosty!? No harm in that, i'm a self confessed cold ramper lol! Just seems a bit strange that after viewing an epic 18z you can only comment on slightly milder air on Fri! I think the occluded front will peter out over the North sea but may aid instability to bring convective wintry showers for Sun as the cold uppers dig in. My instinct is ECM is wrong and I'm praying its wrong !

Here is my latest thoughts / Ramp for Friday - http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...216/maxtemp.png

Lol. Im sure we will all here the crash when you see the output in the morning when it flips around again.

I bet the GFS backtracks and the ECM stays as it is.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hi snowmadchrisuk

I agree with you.

But... You have to see it from JS's point of view.

Cork, in Ireland is really hard to get snow.

I would prefer to be in London x 4 compared to Cork with regards to getting snow.

He (forgive me JS if I am wrong) will look to all models for any sign for a snow opportunity. (Me too)

Yes thanks John , It is only friendly banta with JS but them 2 posts seemed that JS was suggesting a Mild spell with Ice days.

[Frosty.]

I sense you may be a mild ramper frosty!? No harm in that, i'm a self confessed cold ramper lol! Just seems a bit strange that after viewing an epic 18z you can only comment on slightly milder air on Fri! I think the occluded front will peter out over the North sea but may aid instability to bring convective wintry showers for Sun as the cold uppers dig in. My instinct is ECM is wrong and I'm praying its wrong !

Here is my latest thoughts / Ramp for Friday - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100120/18/216/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100120/18/216/maxtemp.png

No i'm a cold ramper but I don't want to tempt fate, and i'm also praying the ecm is wrong as I mentioned in my last post, without the ecm onboard i'm afraid the epic gfs 18z doesn't mean much apart from the obvious eye candy on show. I await the 00z with much trepidation.

[aspire27]

No i'm a cold ramper but I don't want to tempt fate, and i'm also praying the ecm is wrong as I mentioned in my last post, without the ecm onboard i'm afraid the epic gfs 18z doesn't mean much apart from the obvious eye candy on show. I await the 00z with much trepidation.

Newbie:

What time is the 00z coming out?

[stormforce 10]

what a great chart t216,18z gfs there would be some decent snow for some if thet verified. it would be quite bitter with the 510 dam line getting in over much of the uk.

Edited January 20, 2010 by stormforce 10

[Duane S.]

No i'm a cold ramper but I don't want to tempt fate, and i'm also praying the ecm is wrong as I mentioned in my last post, without the ecm onboard i'm afraid the epic gfs 18z doesn't mean much apart from the obvious eye candy on show. I await the 00z with much trepidation.

I actually think the 18z isn't going to be too far off. This whole setup has been screaming 'Northerly!' for the past few days IMO.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Newbie:

What time is the 00z coming out?

03.45 - 04.30 , Probably better to check it in the morning mate.

[Cloud 10]

Newbie:

What time is the 00z coming out?

gfs 00z starts coming out at 3.30am

Edited January 20, 2010 by Cloud 10

[nick sussex]

go on then Nick, give us a medium term 'middle ground' outcome based on gfs/ecm at the moment !!!

I was hoping no one would ask that question!!! Well I can't see a complete cave in by the gfs and the ukmo have updated their fax charts for 96hrs and 120hrs which follow their own model which suggests the ECM might be overdoing things regarding the trough energy.However the ECM might have picked up on the block being sunk but is doing this too quickly and flattens the upstream pattern out too much, the gfs 18hrs run to me though seems very quick in how it sinks the trough south over Scandi delivering that northerly. So overall I think at worst an east to se flow is at least likely for eastern and se areas but the coldest upper air is likely to head to the south into mainland Europe, the block IMO will sink though and any easterly isn't going to deliver what perhaps some people had hoped for, unfortunately low pressure isn't favourably aligned in the Med to advect the coldest air westwards but the surface cold pool will still be cold.

So overall then IMO it will turn colder but the pattern continues to evolve and for this reason as is often the case with easterlies unless pressure rises to the north the jet will eventually sink this, as we saw from the pre Xmas cold spell to keep a longlasting cold pattern you need a fluid, easterly, then northerly reload pattern, although the GFS 18hrs hints at this I'm not convinced at all, I think its earlier synoptics look plausible but question the speed at which it delivers the Scandi trough. Anyway given the chopping and changing in the output by tomorrow I may have to do a hasty re-write!

[cold snap]

Hope i not going over old ground.

Is thay any fact in the statement that models are set to Default?

Or another way to put it, they are set to the even larger teapot?

And is that why the messy situation is now occuring in all models

Edited January 20, 2010 by cold snap

[karyo]

What a great chart to have at just T+72 hrs, usually we get excited over this past T+180 hrs

IB is like a car salesman trying to sell unwanted bangers but keeps persisting with it even though he knows full well he`ll never sell them, hows the mild winter forecast going old pal

Actually, I find Ian Brown's posts very constructive and down to earth! Especially in the last month!

[k19]

GFS showing some amazing charts this time next week. Is that a polar low i see creeping past us? No doubt a change is in order, out on FI, for now...

[John Cox]

Hi smdcuk.

I agree with you.

I dont post often ,but I agree with you ( sorry JS) but he does change his mind from run to run.

I look here at first before I post and then I wait 24 hours looking at this site, before I form an opinion and then some more.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW

Yes thanks John , It is only friendly banta with JS but them 2 posts seemed that JS was suggesting a Mild spell with Ice days.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The ECM ensembles for Holland show the operational was one of the milder runs, but perhaps more concerning for the easterly hunter's is that the majority of ensemble members now turn a bit milder by days 8-10:

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

As one of those who has not been having utmost confidence in the very cold easterly that some have been ramping up - I disagree with that analysis of the ECM ensembles.

On the contrary, I think it actually shows that the operational may well be overdoing the northern arm of the jet stream. The latter part of the ensembles is irrelevant to the actual easterly - the evolution to this which is critical to it, is earlier in the period, so the operational being milder is encouraging in terms of being one of the milder members. Wrt to the latter ensembles, again I would disagree, and suggest that there are plenty of colder members right out to day 10. The operational looks ever more isolated at that stage.

All still to play for, although a beast from the east is certainly not suggested - the proposed corridor of death scenario by the the operational ECM tonight is even less likely.

Tonights GFS 18z thickens the plot further.

Edited January 20, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[SP1986]

GFS possibly moving towards the ECM and UKMO look of things although yet again the depth of the cold at night shown by the GFS on ground temperature is extremely questionable, even if an inversion were to unravel. As for the northerly well I imagine that is the most likely outcome in this particular pattern.

It would still be cold though as many people are cold and frost fans it would suit them I imagine!

[londonsnow]

the pub run is interesting. 510 toying with our isles. great to have a good old blast from the north maybe