Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ECM up to t120 says no to the easterly

A half recovery at t144 - continental air scraping into the south east

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Edited January 20, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

Stratospheric temperature increases (which I posted earlier)at the 30mb level in the

Arctic tend to show increases in the Spitsbergen and northern Sweden area as well as

the pole itself so it will be interesting to see if the models start to show height rises in

these areas in their FI range.

[PB22]

I think the writing is on the wall to be frank people. ECM 12Z sticks to its guns by saying no easterly next week, and given that the UKMO 12z run has also backed off (or delayed things as some may prefer it to be described as) from its output last night, then I would expect this to turn out to be another poor episode for the GFS and the GFS model will gradually back down over the next few runs. I am confident of calling this potential easterly now as a "no go" because of the increasing amounts of energy that are now being progged into the northern arm of the jet in a realistic time frame on the models, and also from previous experience of viewing this type of thing being played out on the models before.

As I said last week, unless we can get higher heights over Greenland, then there will not be anything notably wintry for our shores. Don't get me wrong, the outlook is still a chilly one and definitely not mild, but I cannot see anything particularly wintry, even based on the standards of the last few years.

ECM T+168:

Sticks to its guns.

[Just Below Zero]

No apparent light at the end of the tunnel over at ECM HQ

[TEITS]

I think the writing is on the wall to be frank people.

Yep pretty much agree.

For me it doesn't matter what the NOGAPS, GEM, GFS suggest if the UKMO/ECM disagree then im afraid its game over with regards to the E,ly.

[D KARLSON]

I am not favouring the GFS version of strong easterly, indeed I believe that the strong peak energy signal will override the block 25-31 and we see a deep LP system develop to our NW then cross the UK or just to the north and I think the block will not have a major easterly effect. However, I do favour the longer term hint that Pressure will move and rise to our NW with HP sat over Greenland, Greenland Iceland with a trough set up in Scandi formed as this deep LP moves W to E last days of Jan. I will post my Feb monthly outlook later but a taste is that I now favour a 70/30 cold to very cold month with N to NE'ly flow [HP Greenland, then Iceland] for first half and easterly second half [HP transfers to Scandi HP] but a strong blocked pattern to develop and remain in place for most of Feb. I think we have seen the deepest cold of the winter.

I think the ECM may continue to follow on from its 00z output BUT there for sure is potential for surprises.

BFTP

Very much my thinking at the current time and dont be looking to the models too much as they are trying to bring in a new pattern which should occur at months end , but its how the process occurs and low confidence in the models will continue until the new pattern starts to realise,l

I must admit its absolutely fascinating, watching how our models handle this old fashioned winter and for anyone new on here you can learn an awful lot from watching the models predictions and what actuallly unfolds.

at the moment it certainly looks like the cold will return in the short term then a possible mild blip as the pattern tesets and then a cold outbreak from the north this time but this is conjecture although a good punt nonthe less ,obviously the devils in the detail and surprises a plenty

[igloo]

looks fairly mild wet and windy for next week i have to say the prospect of a E,LY is about 10% after looking at the euro runs tonight it looks only a matter of time before the more cannon fodder models follow suit

[PB22]

Thank goodness this chart is at T+192, because its quite frankly awful:

All that Atlantic mild air piles through Scandinavia...

[Bristawl Si]

Yep pretty much agree.

For me it doesn't matter what the NOGAPS, GEM, GFS suggest if the UKMO/ECM disagree then im afraid its game over with regards to the E,ly.

Forgive me if i'm wrong, but is it GP that's been forecasting a less cold February for a while now?

So the main model outputs from today seem to be suggesting a very quiet spell of weather for the next week, possibly leading into a milder Feb. From a historic weather point of view winter 81/82 was a Dec/Jan affair for cold and snow - the rest of that 'winter' was pretty snowless if i remember rightly and not cold at all (stand to be corrected if my older memory is failing me ) .

However, we've all seen the models 'flip' in the past, so never say never to another decent cold and snowy period.

[TEITS]

Thank goodness this chart is at T+192, because its quite frankly awful:

All that Atlantic mild air piles through Scandinavia...

Gets worse.

Without doubt the worst ECM run so far this winter. Infact the ECM is so bad its more like a horror show!

Only positive is I will save a few quid on my heating.

[cold snap]

Gets worse.

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?20-0

Without doubt the worst ECM run so far this winter. Infact the ECM is so bad its more like a horror show!

Only positive is I will save a few quid on my heating.

Lets just hope the GFS 18Z gives us a boost.it will be nice to carry on the argument,If it goes with ECM i may sign of for a while.

Something i never thought was going to happen was seing that High Presure sink.Disaterous.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The GEFS is getting beyond a joke then really as it has 90% support for the Easterly and -10 uppers . I am not writing off a brief Easterly yet as currently that block is still holding strong , and the models maybe being to progressive in Sinking it so quickly.

[Geordiesnow]

Yep pretty much agree.

For me it doesn't matter what the NOGAPS, GEM, GFS suggest if the UKMO/ECM disagree then im afraid its game over with regards to the E,ly.

But don't you agree that the UKMO is closer to the GFS than it is to the ECM. I mean, not just for the weather for our location but others, for example, UKMO has a 980MB low to the west of Iceland t 120 hours, whilst the ECM is going for a whopping 955MB low! GFS has the low just to the South of Greenland at around 965MB but this does not come into play as any easterly is already underway and i with the block further west on the GFS run, i think this is could be why the low is in that position.

Going by your post, you would think its ECM/UKMO Vs the rest when its not. And for that reason its not game over for any easterly, however going by all the model output in the last few days, i can't see much potential for an easterly that would have convective potential lasting too long and the long range models are all more or less in agreement any easterly will probably sink.

[cooling climate]

I am still not convinced by the ECM tonight but until its on board then next week is still

very much up in the air.

By t168 and onwards the ECM and GFS are chalk and cheese in regard to the heights and

vortex position over the Arctic, with the ECM going very positive AO and the GFS negative

AO.

It would certainly be a coup if the GFS was right for once and with what is forcast to happen

with the warming at the 30mb level then I am going to put my head on the block and side

with the GFS for once.

[aspire27]

People keep saying the GFS spotted our last cold spell, how was the ECM performing against the GFS then? Or did it get on board very quickly?

[Eugene]

Well JMA has tonight moved closer to the other cold runs, i think its safe to say ECM 12Z is way too progressive and somewhere in the middle is most likely with cold air threatening us at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1442.gif

[Don]

If tonights ECM output comes off, then GP's February forecast will look pretty good! Awful awful run....I know it doesn't have support from other models, but I know where I would put my money regarding next week.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Don

[SP1986]

I genuinely think its literally 50/50, for us who dont have a clue where this is going it could actually literally go either way, I think there's a 50% chance of an easterly, and an equal chance of a southwesterly - they're both possible with a similar evolution.. it really is wide open - I wouldn't like the bet, but I wouldn't suggest the model that gets it right will then be the form horse as I think the models are clearly struggling right now.

[Cloud 10]

ecm gfs

ecm and gfs at +168hrs ^^

Some large differences between these 2 models this evening,with the ecm ushering in the zonal express later in its run.

The depth of that ecm low at +120 looks very suspect.

[nick sussex]

What a complete mess the models are making of the outlook. It's been a long time since we've seen this much disagreement at 96hrs, the ECM, UKMO and GME all trend one way, the GFS and NOGAPS the other then the GEM does look similar to the ECM at 96hrs but then cuts a shortwave se'wards and builds the block westwards afterwards.

However theres normally only one major model that will continue run after run with the wrong synoptics within 120hrs and from experience thats the GFS, the ECM does have its wobbles but normally its one run, if its gone wrong it quickly reverts back. Having said all this perhaps they're all wrong!

It's hard to believe that the models can't agree on what the trough does in the west Atlantic at only 96hrs. Overall then the chance for a proper easterly fades but what exactly will happen will have to wait till tomorrow, hopefully!

[Geordiesnow]

Some on TWO actually want ECM 12Z to come off to reset the pattern, LOL what a joke that is, our best chance of cold is if the other run are correct,, i think ECM is having problems, you just can't take that run against all the others, lets say ECM 12Z was cold and all the others mild, well would you still go for ECM then , i doubt it same should happen here

Yep, it such an easy mistake to make wishing for the Atlantic to come in when we get stuck in a rut but this is certainly not the answer at all.

I do feel the ECM will be closer to the mark but this is just on previous experience and probably down to the fact that its a better performing model however as we all know, the next run could show something different.

Its not like the ECM has never trended towards any easterly but the last 3-4 runs or so have stopped this trend and what we see now could become more like the reality. Still, whilst its still more or less on its own, you can't take it for granted but you also can't say any easterly is more likely to come off either.

[Polar Continental]

Well, it seems almost everyone has written off the easterly going by the ECM tonight. The situation still hangs very much in the balance. If the ECM is over doing the intensity of that low pressure moving towards Iceland at T120, then I will put my money on the GFS, GEM and UKMO, so far it is 3 in favour of an easterly and 1 against.

If the ECM is correct with this, then all credit due to its superb modelling.

[SP1986]

Yep, it such an easy mistake to make wishing for the Atlantic to come in when we get stuck in a rut but this is certainly not the answer at all.

It's not? Some actually genuinely want the Atlantic to come in (at least to stir things up a bit, a few storms, some clean none polluted air rather than the polluted stuff we usually from the east)

[aspire27]

So with the last cold spell the GFS picked it up first? How long was it before the ECM jumped on board?

[bluearmy]

I am still not convinced by the ECM tonight but until its on board then next week is still

very much up in the air.

By t168 and onwards the ECM and GFS are chalk and cheese in regard to the heights and

vortex position over the Arctic, with the ECM going very positive AO and the GFS negative

AO.

It would certainly be a coup if the GFS was right for once and with what is forcast to happen

with the warming at the 30mb level then I am going to put my head on the block and side

with the GFS for once.

is the AO very positive on the ecm CC? the p/v looks to be on the move and splitting into possibly 5 parts in neither a clockwise nor anti clockwise motion with pressure rising towards the pole. i think its just the lack of a -NAO thats our problem in nw europe.

i dont think that either T240 charts from ecm today are particularly without some kind of promise and they are consistent with the pattern that they show. with a bit more splitting of the p/v likely in response to ssw, i would expect we might see a more amplification by day 10 than is currently shown. we havent doen badly this season so far. this block appears to be our first dud evolution. cheer up everyone. a few days of a zonal westerly isnt the end of the world, as long as it doesnt become a few weeks!! i'm sure that wont happen.