Model Output Discussion

[igloo]

looks like a few cloudy cold days to me with the block slowy moving sw before finally being blown se in FL i hope to se upgrades otherwise it looks nothing more this evenings ECM run may well be correct

[Bobby]

I'm not really seeing anything exciting in the charts to be honest. They just look "blah" to me... kinda cold I suppose, but generally dry and quiet. Might change though.

[Jason M]

Hi All

Seems to me that some people are making the mistake of looking too far ahead. If we take a snapshot of all charts in the 120 - 144 hour time frame the charts have significant promise. After day 5/6 we might as well not bother because the difference between deep cold and surface cold is marginal in terms of synoptics and will be beyond the models to accurately model at this stage. Arguably were better off as we are because if they were all showing a deep freeze they would likely change anyway.

Jason

Edited January 19, 2010 by Jason M

[nick sussex]

I think perhaps expectations given the recent cold spell are too high in terms of the way forward. We have to accept that the past month has been exceptional, not all cold spells can deliver those longlasting wintry conditions. IMO if the UK manages another week to 10 days of cold and frost with some sunshine and a little snow then that would round of January very well indeed.

The charts still look fine and an ese flow would be very cold indeed,I'm not saying it cant develop into something more snowier but if its a generally dry and cold spell that shouldn't mean it's not up to much. There is still uncertainty as to the orientation of the high and how exactly the coldest upper air could get advected westwards, the UKMO 144hrs is certainly good for that but I doubt we've seen the last of the changes.

So overall apart from the ECM which drags the drama out a bit too long then the output is fine, lets see what tomorrow brings.

Edited January 19, 2010 by nick sussex

[PB22]

London 12z ECM ensembles:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Operational was not a mild outlier until day 9/10, when it became one of the milder runs. Overall, the ensemble set this evening is not a whole lot different to what this morning's was.

[LomondSnowstorm]

London 12z ECM ensembles:

http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html

Operational was not a mild outlier until day 9/10, when it became one of the milder runs. Overall, the ensemble set this evening is not a whole lot different to what this morning's was.

Fair enough I suppose, but ensembles do change like the wind, and the ECM was on the milder side (though by no means an outlier) on the KNMI ensembles for the Netherlands. Overall though tonight looks a bit more promising than yesterday, though we're still looking at a fair deal of uncertainty, though of course with such a variety of every changing runs this is bound to occur!

LS

[swilliam]

I'm not really seeing anything exciting in the charts to be honest. They just look "blah" to me... kinda cold I suppose, but generally dry and quiet. Might change though.

I think peoples expectations have got way to high. Most years we would have been really excited by the possibilities of the projected Easterly with maybe ice days, severe frost and possibly some snow. The last cold spell was exceptional in that it was v.cold and was dominated by low pressure bring plenty of ppn events. This was most unusual. More commonly we might expect v.cold weather to be anticyclonic dominated (as currently forecast) with perhaps some snow flurries or showers and then maybe one major ppn event as the breakdown happens. If you are only going to be interested in v.cold with daily snow events then you might haved to wait another 20 years for your next exciting winter weather.

Edited January 19, 2010 by swilliam

[swilliam]

It was in response to Barb saying the models were currently uninteresting i.e the weather predicted by the models is going to be uninteresting - weather and models are linked. Perhaps I should have said peoples expectations of the model output.

Sorry I do not understand the last comment - why is it strange - the last cold spell was supposed to be the worst for nearly 20 years (i.e 81/82) - so if this is the only thing that you find exciting you might have to wait another 20 years - seems fairly simple?

Edited January 19, 2010 by swilliam

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think peoples expectations have got way to high. Most years we would have been really excited by the possibilities of this Easterly with maybe ice days, severe frost and possibly some snow. The last cold spell was exceptional in that it was v.cold and was dominated by low pressure bring plenty of ppn events. This was most unusual. More commonly we might expect v.cold weather to be anticyclonic dominated (as currently forecast) with perhaps some snow flurries or showers and then maybe one major ppn event as the breakdown happens. If you are only going to be interested in v.cold with daily snow events then you might haved to wait another 20 years for your next exciting winter weather.

Too true. Most of the cold snaps I can remember have been maybe a week to at most 2 weeks long, with mainly surface cold and the occasional flurry, with either a 12 hour window of North Sea convection showers or the breakdown providing the snowfalls. Those spells would normally be cherished, but after an incredibly long, snowy spell earlier on, this one (although we still don't know how intense/long lasting it will be) looks boring in comparison! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100119/18/120/h500slp.png That is not a boring chart by any means!

Enjoy the model output, because it's the only model output you've got!

LS

[john mac]

well evening everyone

nice to see the models struggling to agree atm, I like this because its keeping everyone on there toes, at least the trend is there for some colder weather to eventually come our way

[Pixel]

well evening everyone

nice to see the models struggling to agree atm, I like this because its keeping everyone on there toes, at least the trend is there for some colder weather to eventually come our way

love your post..

umm yes, tis the time of year me thinks. I personally prefer a seasonal output - Snow in winter time, it seems right (-:

Here's some words one might see here before "winter's" out:

....there may be a frenzy of other words and one liners too before Spring arrives here (subtlety represented by the absence of posters inc me) but rest assured the model analysis will be just as interesting and vague while nature takes its unpredictable journey toward winters end.

It's why we're here, trying to fore-see and tell those we know, when and where the weather is going to happen before the Met office or the Daily express tells us:yahoo: if we were really so good at it we'd be rich and sad !

oh the joy of 'tinternet' forums

...

and just for the sake of it, in the form of one liners:

"please no snow on the 27th Jan as we've got to fly out of Gatwick to Cuba"

[Eugene]

Cracking GEM 00Z this morning, UKMO and GFS not far off, i see some excellent ensemble members too, those confident of a short cold snap were the same predicting atlantic domination don't forget that.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Edited January 20, 2010 by Eugene

[KTtom]

Cracking GEM 00Z this morning, UKMO and GFS not far off, i see some excellent ensemble members too, those confident of a short cold snap were the same predicting atlantic domination don't forget that.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Fairly good agreement for some sort of cold snap into next week with an easterly. The main question at the moment appears to be how far north the high to the north east can get before low pressure drives over the top and sends it sinking into central europe allowing a more traditional Winter look to the charts , this scinario has agreement with both ECM and GFS mid-term.

[john mac]

Morning all,

Not a bad gfs this morning cold and dry, The ECM looks very bullish after 168hrs with the atlantic smashing the blockout of the way

It will be interesting to see the esembles this morning

[snowingtequila]

My concern is that although an easterly of sorts is showing in the models out of the reliable time frame all the models are tending to show high pressure building over us or just south of us, the block sinking and low pring to pressures flying to the north of us, one does start to think this is a trend towards February.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-192.png?0

Edited January 20, 2010 by snowingtequila

[The PIT]

The very Cold snap remains out in FI land and once again much swapping around as how this may be delivered. ECM having none of it really so everything really is up in there. Overall the models are having a mare trying to sort this block.

[Frosty.]

The Easterly next week is very much in the balance this morning according to the latest models, the ukmo 00z is still going for it in the T+144 range and so is the gem although the biggest thrust of cold blasts into france rather than the uk, the nogaps also favours an E'ly. The ecm 00z is another flop, similar to the 12z last night and just isn't interested, also, the gfs 00z is half onboard, teetering on the edge and one small push away from joining the ecm. The atlantic seems to be gaining the upper hand in my opinion and the set up shown is much more fragile compared to the build up to the first wintry blast we had in december. I get the feeling that the models won't deliver this time sadly.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Frosty039

[Weather-history]

. Overall the models are having a mare trying to sort this block.

Is it the block or the intensity and track of the low near Iceland, thats the problem?

ECM has a very intense low right on Iceland's doorstep and this prevents the block having much influence over the UK.

GFS has a strong low but its to the north of Iceland and the block has more influence over the UK

GEM and NOGAPS both have that low not as intense near Greenland and the nett effect is an easterly.

UKMO has a weaker low further west a half hearted easterly.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Frosty.]

Is it the block or the intensity and track of the low near Iceland, thats the problem?

ECM has a very intense low right on Iceland's doorstep and this prevents the block having much influence over the UK.

GFS has a strong low but its to the north of Iceland and the block has more influence over the UK

GEM and NOGAPS both have that low not as intense near Greenland and the nett effect is an easterly.

UKMO has a weaker low further west a half hearted easterly.

Excellent summary there Mr_Data

It's a real pity we don't have the ecm in the yes camp as I generally have more faith in that model than any of the others. It looks as though the gfs is probably going in the same direction of the ecm but more slowly.

[TEITS]

Is it the block or the intensity and track of the low near Iceland, thats the problem?

Most certainly the track and intensity of the LP thats causing the differences in the modelling of the E,ly.

I have to say im not very happy with the models in the medium range. A trend towards a +AO/NAO is currently being suggested.

[cooling climate]

With the verification stats of the ECM I would not even consider the threat of a potent easterly

spell of weather without the ECM on board.

The European models definitely imo have a much better handle on continental airflows over the

UK than the American model.

As far as the long range and FI are concerned the models may be right but I find it strange the

way they have suddenly flipped to a much stronger vortex over Greenland and more + AO

configuration.

I am not saying it will but this could well flip back in the next day or so.

[snowmadchrisuk]

For the last few days , In the Model verification wars in the Northern Hem , UKMET have been winning. GFS not been doing to bad either in the last 2 days.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Most certainly the track and intensity of the LP thats causing the differences in the modelling of the E,ly.

I have to say im not very happy with the models in the medium range. A trend towards a +AO/NAO is currently being suggested.

+1 Dave,

very disappointing output this morning,esp ecm.Still time for a change but my optimism of yesterday has dwindled again.

ukmo brings an easterly but it doesnt look like a long lasting one,we need that PV and its assosiated energy top bugger off.little sign of height rises over greeny again.

[MisfitDog3]

A mixed bag again this morning. Some quite large alternating outputs over relatively short time periods from several models which does not give me confidence that anything is sorted out post weekend. I always like to skim a couple of pages of this forum when I first log on to see how often the word 'Gem' appears! Usually indicates some straw grasping from one group or another!

[Frosty.]

For the last few days , In the Model verification wars in the Northern Hem , UKMET have been winning. GFS not been doing to bad either in the last 2 days.

Given the mixed output and disappointing ecm I would think the meto update today will be much more sober in tone as the big models jump overboard. It's more likely a mobile atlantic driven pattern will win out next week IMO.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Frosty039