Model Output Discussion

[David-kig]

I think this thread should be renamed the ECM reliability thread! We have a plathora of models to give us an indication of synoptics and we are getting bogged down with just one. I can't believe how some members take each output as gospel and even some highly respected members on here are throwing in the towel because the ECM isn't onboard. I have always found the GFS ensembles to be a good indicator of its reliability. GFS ensebles show very good agreement for a cold easterly next week. ECM ensembles are all over the place, so who would you back? If I asked 2 people the answer to a question and one gave a confident reply and one just shrugged their shoulders, which one should I trust? Experts at the met office clearly do not trust the ECM solution so why should we? If the ECM turns out to be correct on this in the face of all other models then I will highly respect it in the future but for now its credibility is looking shakey.

bk the Ecm then no one will be left disspointed. thats what i think. i think most people like myself want spring to arive soon as i miss the summer days now. the cold spell was fun when it lasted. personally not many could enjoy it as many people have been ill. around that period

[aspire27]

bk the Ecm then no one will be left disspointed. thats what i think. i think most people like myself want spring to arive soon as i miss the summer days now. the cold spell was fun when it lasted. personally not many could enjoy it as many people have been ill. around that period

Just to remind you David-kig, we still have a lot of winter to go yet until summer. Winter not over yet by a long shot, Feb is usually the best month for cold and snow.

Bit off topic i know.

[lukemc]

The models are all over the place at the moment.

The following is however quite clear:

1) There is no proper cold spell showing up with any consistency

2) The bartlett option, though almost banned on here,is showing up quite often in FI charts

3) All the signs are that most of February will be mild.

The above are 3 facts that could be totally change in 7days time but right now are very much the outlook. Therefore in summary cool or cold in the reliable, but no potent cold spell between now and the end of Jan.

So really do you see a mild (i.e. above average) February as being nailed on now? That is surprising considering that February is often the most blocked month of the winter and is often the coldest month in this country and also taking into consideration that this winter has behaved a lot differently in synoptic terms than previous winters of the last decade or so. Also there is the possibility of a stratospheric warming event. Also SSTs are lower too! I cannot see how anyone can call a mild February based on a single automated computer model run (I presume ECM). And even if most of February was mild I would then expect a cold or even very cold spell late February into March. What evidence do you have to say that the majority of Febuary will be mild?

Luke

[J10]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

ECM Ensembles now out, and quite a lot of colder runs into the medium term.

What I find surprising is temps on the OP run, they look pretty cold for a mr B Scenario.

So no massive agreement on the horror show that was the 12hz (for cold lovers) verifying.

[PB22]

The ECM ensembles for Holland show the operational was one of the milder runs, but perhaps more concerning for the easterly hunter's is that the majority of ensemble members now turn a bit milder by days 8-10:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

[Richard Lake]

bk the Ecm then no one will be left disspointed. thats what i think. i think most people like myself want spring to arive soon as i miss the summer days now. the cold spell was fun when it lasted. personally not many could enjoy it as many people have been ill. around that period

No one can ask for spring in mid-winter. Careful what you wish for.

[Ben_Cambs]

bk the Ecm then no one will be left disspointed. thats what i think. i think most people like myself want spring to arive soon as i miss the summer days now. the cold spell was fun when it lasted. personally not many could enjoy it as many people have been ill. around that period

To be fair that is your opinion, but not necessarily every one elses opinion as you seem to put it. We technically have about 40 days of winter left, and I expect the models to throw up many different scenarios over the next week or so. Dont forget that this was one run from one model.

Back to the models, they are very messy atm. ECM was not expected and I really dont know what GFS 18z will throw up. Better than ECM I think, hopefully it may continue its trend from 12z, but we will wait and see.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Snowman0697

[john mac]

Well IMO anyone who is calling februarys weather is purely guessing, we dont even know what is going to happen next week yet. Its very interesting atm with the models chopping and changing every day and with very little agreement past t96hrs anything can happen so keep watching

[billy]

The ECM ensembles for Holland show the operational was one of the milder runs, but perhaps more concerning for the easterly hunter's is that the majority of ensemble members now turn a bit milder by days 8-10:

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

Yes Paul but surely the 8-10 day ensembles are fairly irrelevant when the shorter term is so uncertain

[PB22]

Yes Paul but surely the 8-10 day ensembles are fairly irrelevant when the shorter term is so uncertain

To some extent they are, but we can still use the ensembles to try and gain a better idea of what may happen and to see where the operational run stood.

[billy]

To some extent they are, but we can still use the ensembles to try and gain a better idea of what may happen and to see where the operational run stood.

Ok, what i mean is if the early part of the op run turns out to be way out which it may or not be as yet , then surely the 8-10 day ensembles would be basically useless.

[Eugene]

It's no wonder the pro's tonight aren't taking much notice of ECM 12Z tonight with ECM ensembles like these.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

[PB22]

Ok, what i mean is if the early part of the op run turns out to be way out which it may or not be as yet , then surely the 8-10 day ensembles would be basically useless.

It would depend on how the operational fits in with the rest of the ensemble members There are 50 different runs in those ECM ensembles, and from them we can usually get a good idea of the general pattern, even if the operational is out on its on from early on. Following the mean on those ensembles usually helps to get a good idea of what the general pattern may be, i.e. on tonight's for Holland its a getting colder picture before turning less cold after around day 8.

[cooling climate]

CPC 500mb outlook for 6-10 days does not support the ECM

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The 8-14 day outlook looks promising as well

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

You can not always rely on them though, as I found out last winter.

[billy]

It would depend on how the operational fits in with the rest of the ensemble members There are 50 different runs in those ECM ensembles, and from them we can usually get a good idea of the general pattern, even if the operational is out on its on from early on. Following the mean on those ensembles usually helps to get a good idea of what the general pattern may be, i.e. on tonight's for Holland its a getting colder picture before turning less cold after around day 8.

Ok , thanks for the explanation. I'm a novice at this as you may have guessed.

[john mac]

Does anyone know what the NOAA discussions are saying today?

[nick sussex]

Does anyone know what the NOAA discussions are saying today?

In terms of the upstream pattern NOAA go for a blend of the ecm and gfs! Which doesn't help us very much in knowing which model has called things correctly, sometimes in these situations with model divergence you get a middle ground solution.

[stewfox]

The models are all over the place at the moment.

The following is however quite clear:

1) There is no proper cold spell showing up with any consistency

2) The bartlett option, though almost banned on here,is showing up quite often in FI charts

3) All the signs are that most of February will be mild.

The above are 3 facts that could be totally change in 7days time but right now are very much the outlook. Therefore in summary cool or cold in the reliable, but no potent cold spell between now and the end of Jan.

1 . They usually never do until with in the reliable time frame , were a small Island

2. No its not

3. Unfortunately T560 is called FI for a reason and the day T560 is a 'fact' we can stop model watching

[The Weather Dragon]

I just don't buy the later evolution of ECM. ECM has performed well over the last Eight weeks - it couldn't last though. We have seen GFS lead the way in cold trends over the last few years. Lets get to Sat and see where we are then. Rob (Legend) McElwee is keen on the cold next week.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Jonathan Evans

[Ben_Cambs]

So far GFS 18z really no change from 12z, but that is what you would expect...

Edit: Actually I would say it brings in colder uppers quicker than 12z

Edited January 20, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ecm tonight is like Groundhog day again, i'm sure it was the same last night with the ecm op run totally at odds with every other model but with FI at around T+96ish the game aint over yet.

[tinybill]

I just don't buy the later evolution of ECM. ECM has performed well over the last Eight weeks - it coudn't last though. We have seen GFS lead the way in cold trends over the last few years. Lets get to Sat and see where we are then. Rob (Legend) McElwee is keen on the cold next week.

as you say rob the #Legend#mcElwee was getting very excited about next week talking about a battle ground for next week cant wait wait for the 10.30 BBC weather !!

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 18z very good so far, -10C Uppers easily across the bulk of the country with -12C Uppers over North East England at T+90. Also shows snow on Sunday for Eastern and Central Areas...

[Snowyowl9]

The ECM ensembles for Holland show the operational was one of the milder runs, but perhaps more concerning for the easterly hunter's is that the majority of ensemble members now turn a bit milder by days 8-10:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

That would be just fine,that would take us to the 29th so say we`ll get average to cold for the rest of January.

If we have a blend of the models we may end up with something like this cold but dry,no cold uppers but there woudn`t need any unless you want snow of course.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120071216.gif

[Bobby]

The ECM is an extreme solution I think that won't come off but I think the trend is now away from a notable Easterly.