Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

I don't think anyone should congratulate the ECM on nailing the pattern for next week and beyond unless they have access to a time machine, most of the models and the meto update have called next week as being wintry with below average temps and i'm just curious as to why the meto have ignored the ecm output thus far and gone for the colder solution, perhaps the ecm is just going through a poor patch.

[snowmadchrisuk]

ecm gfs

ecm and gfs at +168hrs ^^

Some large differences between these 2 models this evening,with the ecm ushering in the zonal express later in its run.

The depth of that ecm low at +120 looks very suspect.

Also you can see the GFS is trying to undercut from the South which would aid in keeping the High North of us for longer , where ECM just sinks a 1060mb high in a couple of days and flattens the whole patten . I don't think there is any chance the ECM would verify as it is shown now after +144 . I'm not saying 100% Easterly either though .

[lukemc]

Here is a question for people on here. Is the ECM showing typical "even larger teapot" style synoptics?

If yes I would be surprised to see it be that plausible because I think this winter, and indeed the last have been anything but "modern" in that context.

Also would the evolution shown by the ECM be of a mild "zonal" type or a cold or average "zonal type" e.g. would widespread double figures be likely if it verified?

I am also asking that a zonal type pattern becomes established, with SSTs being so low by recent standards from the recent cold spell could cold or very cold zonality be possible which could bring a fair amount of snowfall to Northern and Western areas of the British Isles something like January 1984 or March 1995?

Luke

[Snowyowl9]

I think it`s fair we don`t know whats going to happen next week.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

[cold snap]

Yep, it such an easy mistake to make wishing for the Atlantic to come in when we get stuck in a rut but this is certainly not the answer at all.

I do feel the ECM will be closer to the mark but this is just on previous experience and probably down to the fact that its a better performing model however as we all know, the next run could show something different.

Its not like the ECM has never trended towards any easterly but the last 3-4 runs or so have stopped this trend and what we see now could become more like the reality. Still, whilst its still more or less on its own, you can't take it for granted but you also can't say any easterly is more likely to come off either.

Maybe the good old Pub run will clear up the mess

[ghrud]

I think the main 3 are in pretty good agreement up until T96 at which point FI begins. Hopefully, tomorrow we'll have a better insight but my view is two rights don't make the other wrong. If you know what I mean. :excl:

[nick sussex]

Here is a question for people on here. Is the ECM showing typical "even larger teapot" style synoptics?

If yes I would be surprised to see it be that plausible because I think this winter, and indeed the last have been anything but "modern" in that context.

Also would the evolution shown by the ECM be of a mild "zonal" type or a cold or average "zonal type" e.g. would widespread double figures be likely if it verified?

I am also asking that a zonal type pattern becomes established, with SSTs being so low by recent standards from the recent cold spell could cold or very cold zonality be possible which could bring a fair amount of snowfall to Northern and Western areas of the British Isles something like January 1984 or March 1995?

Luke

The ECM in its later output does show a very typical zonal pattern which would be mild,in terms of colder zonality you would need low pressure tracking much further south so the polar jet was much further south and with it the colder air to tap into. The ECM is to put it mildly a horror show in its later output but thankfully just as cold scenarios implode at that timeframe so do mild ones. I think we need to get some earlier agreement before worrying too much about events past 168hrs.

Edited January 20, 2010 by nick sussex

[MP-R]

Here's something to lighten the mood - imagine if this was to happen!:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

A real rut we are at at the moment. The GFS is really sticking with a light easterly flow for a while next week turning more northwesterly for a time before a northerly for a few days at the start of February:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess=

I know which model I would like to follow at the moment :excl:.

[The PIT]

The Scandi high trend will be backed by ECM tonight - We are seeing the building blocks for the next cold spell - Next week will be cold with snow about. I have a feeling that we will see retrogression of this Scandi high into the Atlantic and towards Greenland. The big question is that will conditions be condusive to maintain this block and prolong our cold spell.

I'm afraid not ECM goes for the Atlantic piling back in. Mostly dry warm in the south wet and windy in Scotland. Must be a mild outlier.

[aspire27]

I'm afraid not ECM goes for the Atlantic piling back in. Mostly dry warm in the south wet and windy in Scotland. Must be a mild outlier.

Dont know about dry and warm. Milder maybe.

[mcweather]

Whilst there is no doubt that the ECM performed superbly during the cold spell.

It would be as well to remember that it was the the gfs that picked up on both the mid dec cold spell and the January cold spell well in advance of the ecm. So it is not inconceivable that it may be ahead of the ECM this time in progging more cold

in the mid and longer term.

I think things are still pretty much up in the air.

[aspire27]

Whilst there is no doubt that the ECM performed superbly during the cold spell.

It would be as well to remember that it was the the gfs that picked up on both the mid dec cold spell and the January cold spell well in advance of the ecm. So it is not inconceivable that it may be ahead of the ECM this time in progging more cold

in the mid and longer term.

I think things are still pretty much up in the air.

After the GFS picked up the cold signal, how long did it take for the ECM to jump on board.

Yes, I have asked this three times now. If anyone could help, thanks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Also Sunday and Monday ECM pulls the Colder air in just like the GFS . -10's into the East on the 24th from the ECM . It is not until the 26th 850's start to rise.

[David-kig]

im not even following the models at the moment. generally its a struggling pattern. the models overall are not coping with that high

[snowmadchrisuk]

After the GFS picked up the cold signal, how long did it take for the ECM to jump on board.

Yes, I have asked this three times now. If anyone could help, thanks.

It wasn't right until the last minute last time , it's first chart at +72 was showing the total opposite of the GFS at +72 hours from the start of the event. In that case though every other model was folowing the GFS apart from the ECM , this time it is not quite as clear cut.

[weather eater]

I would say that we have seen the ECM have these kinds of wobbles in the build up to a cold spell at least twice this winter, so it may well be wise to see what tomorrows output brings before jumping to the conclusion that the ECM is right and the GFS wrong. Regardless of how things develop from here, the ECM is a justification for those of us who have suggested that a cold spell is not locked and perhaps a little more respect should be given to those who don't just jump on the, its going to be mega cold bandwagon.

[Ben_Cambs]

To be fair ECM has shown massive breakdown scenarios this winter to milder weather, Around the New Year it showed a big breakdown by the 5/6th of Jan, and look what happened. Im not going to give up just yet... :excl:

[David-kig]

see what support there is with its esembles. before a clearer view if its an mild outlier or not.

personally looking at the general view of the models tempertures will be slightly below normal / average mainly up until febuary. with a wintry mix with higher chance of snow further east you are. overall nothing like the cold spell we just had.

overall nothing to cheer or moan about. just the right temperture for everyone to cope with and still enjoy with a chance of snow at times.

[aspire27]

It wasn't right until the last minute last time , it's first chart at +72 was showing the total opposite of the GFS at +72 hours from the start of the event. In that case though every other model was folowing the GFS apart from the ECM , this time it is not quite as clear cut.

Thank you.

Maybe the GFS is better at picking up a cold spell. But the ECM performs better when we are IN the cold spell.

If that sounds supid forgive me.

[Richard Lake]

After the GFS picked up the cold signal, how long did it take for the ECM to jump on board.

Yes, I have asked this three times now. If anyone could help, thanks.

The pre-xmas cold snowy weather came from a N and NE direction if I remember correctly. Throughout the season so far we have only had one true easterly and it was very briefly and in my location brought sleet due to the slack nature of the winds.

If I remember correctly it flipped to follow the GFS (and UKMO) at 48-60hrs.

Edited January 20, 2010 by rikki

[cooling climate]

is the AO very positive on the ecm CC? the p/v looks to be on the move and splitting into possibly 5 parts in neither a clockwise nor anti clockwise motion with pressure rising towards the pole. i think its just the lack of a -NAO thats our problem in nw europe.

i dont think that either T240 charts from ecm today are particularly without some kind of promise and they are consistent with the pattern that they show. with a bit more splitting of the p/v likely in response to ssw, i would expect we might see a more amplification by day 10 than is currently shown. we havent doen badly this season so far. this block appears to be our first dud evolution. cheer up everyone. a few days of a zonal westerly isnt the end of the world, as long as it doesnt become a few weeks!! i'm sure that wont happen.

From t168 onwards and more so by the time we get to t240 it looks dire with a massive vortex

over our side of the Arctic and another over eastern Siberia with admittedly heights to the north

of Alaska.

The GFS was showing the same until this mornings 06z and then 12z run and I am going to speculate and

say that the GFS is the first to pick the pattern change up with a split vortex and blocking to our north and

will I hope be looking forward to seeing the ECM come on board in the morning.

In case anyone missed it I would just like to show the ECM forcasted warming anomaly at the 30mb level,

that I posted earlier today.

http://strat-www.met...ot=town&alert=1

Edited January 20, 2010 by cooling climate

[January Snowstorm]

The models are all over the place at the moment.

The following is however quite clear:

1) There is no proper cold spell showing up with any consistency

2) The bartlett option, though almost banned on here,is showing up quite often in FI charts

3) All the signs are that most of February will be mild.

The above are 3 facts that could be totally change in 7days time but right now are very much the outlook. Therefore in summary cool or cold in the reliable, but no potent cold spell between now and the end of Jan.

[phil nw.]

The differences in the models are centred around Iceland - here the N.Hemi. view at T144hrs.

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?20-0

http://91.121.94.83/...nh-0-144.png?12

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?20-18

When you look at the overhead view the general pattern is actually quite similar from all the models ,but for our little island ,the amount of energy around Iceland will dictate how much influence we keep,if any,from that Scandi.block.

Taking the middle road i would think we will get some sort of South Easterly drift for 2-3days around that time which would be cold at the surface.

I would expect some movement after that though.

With time you would have to favour the block giving way under the pressure of the vortex now to the North West.

Indeed this is clearly shown on the ECM perhaps though a bit too quickly on that run.

Edited January 20, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Tim Bland]

I think this thread should be renamed the ECM reliability thread! We have a plathora of models to give us an indication of synoptics and we are getting bogged down with just one. I can't believe how some members take each output as gospel and even some highly respected members on here are throwing in the towel because the ECM isn't onboard. I have always found the GFS ensembles to be a good indicator of its reliability. GFS ensebles show very good agreement for a cold easterly next week. ECM ensembles are all over the place, so who would you back? If I asked 2 people the answer to a question and one gave a confident reply and one just shrugged their shoulders, which one should I trust? Experts at the met office clearly do not trust the ECM solution so why should we? If the ECM turns out to be correct on this in the face of all other models then I will highly respect it in the future but for now its credibility is looking shakey.

[phil nw.]

Evidence of the uncertainty in the further outlook shows up on the ECM/GFS 8-10day Mean Ht. Comparisons(based on the 00z runs)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Although the blocking is showing differently it does look for us a more Atlantic (Westerly)pattern going forward with more energy further North than for some time.