Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM has now jumped on board with the easterly, not surprised this 'moaning', it was always three main models against one as I mentioned last night.

I remember putting a post on here just before Christmas when the ECM waited until the final hour before it picked up the right signals, it has done it again. So the ECM does seem to have problems with easterly scenarios at times.

Anyway back to the easterly, this will be a mainly dry but cold one, no snow really, except at first in eastern counties. Pressure will be to high to support snow showers, also upper air will not be particularly cold. There will be little difference at the surface though to the last cold spell over England and Wales, so expect hard night frosts.

Ironically the ECM produces a northerly around T192, where as the GFS and GEM which were first to show a Greenland high at that juncture have now dropped the idea.

this is why i get the gut feeling its could be a shortish coldspell although look what happened after decemeber and early january cold event it really never evolved into a mild sw event.

blocks have been very robust this year,

i think its worth keeping a open mind at one stage i was convinced the alantic was going to be the dominating feature this has never really happened so far this winter.

it will win in the end but when is a different story.

i reckon 1st week of febuary could see a return to the alantic but who knows if the cold from the outputs we are seeing hold long enough for ssw event then things could get intresting by mid febuary,

with a return of some real cold and after all febuary is classed as a winter month even march can hold suprises.

the model watching has been almost frustrating lately but there is now clear indication of a cold few days maybe more,

i notice on all the models theres loads of action to the north around greenland iceland into northern scandi,

very deep lows so this could be the downfall for feb aswell,

its never good to see features moving over the north of the uk into arctic and scand regions it depends on how much the high pressure can take before it colapses.

still intresting times ahead,

its still messy,

cold before the month is over what happens next theres not really a clear indication.

I think people are to quick to diss the GFS at the moment bad boy. The first cold spell was GFS's Call and so was next week. I think the new GFS is great at picking out trends .

I'm just trying to work out now the precipitation situation , It is all going to depend on how high our pressures are and exactly how far North our High get's. METO update should be a good one today .

get the cold and then the snow.

and i agree it was the gfs that predicted this first i have a feeling there could be surprises in store im not sure why though i think it could be heading towards a good but short event.

[cooling climate]

i suggest that events off the eastern seaboard and the pole will dictate our weather as we approach the back end of next week. (ie. beyond the southeasterly flow). whilst the eastern seaboard may have decent x model agreement, i doubt the polar pattern will be settled for a while yet.

Quite agree and sure enough the ECM in its mid to long range output has now back tracked towards the GFS and

is showing a split vortex and heights (blocking over the pole).

The northern hemisphere charts show segments of the vortex moving into Scandinavia and as you rightly say

these will not be modeled correctly this far out.

What I find quite funny and typical really of the GFS model is that as the Euro models come on board the GFS

decides to drop the idea thus the credit then goes to the Euro's.

In my eyes it is definitely the Euro's playing catch up in the mid to long range if of course this all verifies.

[aspire27]

Going by the lack of posts on here today and none of the more experienced guys have not appeared today, in my opinion just goes to show theres

not much exciting in the models again today.

[Polar Continental]

this is why i get the gut feeling its could be a shortish coldspell although look what happened after decemeber and early january cold event it really never evolved into a mild sw event.

Hi BB,

Yes this cold spell could well be short and sharp, going by the model projections the high will begin to reorganise its self by Thursday and this will cut off the continental flow to more of an Atlantic type. Obviously if the high does then ridge towards Greenland as has been indicated, then a reload of very cold polar air to follow.

I think the models will flip and flop with this one over a few more runs yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As per post yesterday the models are picking up on the likely synoptic outcome....look to our WNW FOR NEXT HP build up ready for start of Feb. It all looks good to me..

BFTP,

[Frosty.]

As per post yesterday the models are picking up on the likely synoptic outcome....look to our WNW FOR NEXT HP build up ready for start of Feb. It all looks good to me..

BFTP,

Fred i'm just curious, are you expecting something similar to what the GFS 18z showed last night, i.e. a screaming Northerly with a good pressure rise to the northwest and a deep scandi trough in the mid range?

Edited January 21, 2010 by Frosty039

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Might be lucky enough to see a snow shower early next week but as said before, perfectly happy with some cold high pressure and quiet dry weather which has been AWOL for several months now. A chance to see some winter sun along with the frosts would be very welcome. And as Karyo says, it should ensure a notably cold return on the CET for the month as well - even if just to put some aesthetic shine but still much needed perspective at long last on all the psychologically self imposed 'barrier-ism' of what is and what isn't supposedly achievable temperature wise anymore.

I see no model 'winner' from this mornings compromise either. The ECM never went for a full blooded easterly and the others have moved towards that, whilst at the same time, the ECM has come away from the unpalatable suggestions of zonality that the other models had never entertained.

Besides, does it really matter who was right and who was wrong anyway!?

Edited January 21, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[weather eater]

As per post yesterday the models are picking up on the likely synoptic outcome....look to our WNW FOR NEXT HP build up ready for start of Feb. It all looks good to me..

BFTP,

I think so too, in fact the GFS has mooted this idea several times over the last few days and it doesn't surprise me that the ECM has also evolved this idea this morning.

In regards the GFS vs. ECM well the GFS seems more consistent day by day and the ECM keeps having these blips where it goes of an idea only to come back to it. Still rate it over the GFS. Just seen Tamaras post and she's right, no winners or losers.

Edited January 21, 2010 by weather eater

[TEITS]

I see no model 'winner' from this mornings compromise either. The ECM never went for a full blooded easterly and the others have moved towards that, whilst at the same time, the ECM has come away from the unpalatable suggestions of zonality that the other models had never entertained.

Pretty much sums it up Tamara.

Beyond the rather tame E,ly and there is still alot of uncertainity as we can tell between the ECM 12/0Z. Looking at the GEFS SLP Iceland ensembles and this clearly illustrates the uncertainity.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100121/00/prmslReyjavic.png

So beyond the tame E,ly will we see a tame N,ly via the airflow riding over the top of the Atlantic HP? Or will this N,ly be stronger via an Arctic airmass due to pressure being higher around Iceland/Greenland than the 0Z suggests?

[cooling climate]

The ECM has completely backed down in the medium to long range and to say otherwise

is wrong plain and simple.

Definitely no sign of any storms on the horizon either rather the opposite in fact.

[TEITS]

The ECM has completely backed down in the medium to long range and to say otherwise

is wrong plain and simple.

Definitely no sign of any storms on the horizon either rather the opposite in fact.

I think Tamara was referring to how the models have come inline with the ECM w/r/t the tame E,ly. Within the medium range and the ECM has definitely moved towards the recent GFS runs. So in some respects they have met each other halfway.

The Met O yesterday did say alot of uncertainity and this has been shown on recent runs.

[Polar Continental]

Pretty much sums it up Tamara.

Beyond the rather tame E,ly and there is still alot of uncertainity as we can tell between the ECM 12/0Z. Looking at the GEFS SLP Iceland ensembles and this clearly illustrates the uncertainity.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100121/00/prmslReyjavic.png

So beyond the tame E,ly will we see a tame N,ly via the airflow riding over the top of the Atlantic HP? Or will this N,ly be stronger via an Arctic airmass due to pressure being higher around Iceland/Greenland than the 0Z suggests?

Morning Dave,

Yes synoptically tame! probably, although I suppose that phrase could quite easily be misconstrued by the less informed on here.

According to the projected temperatures, by the GFS it certainly wont feel tame, this could well be just as cold as the last easterly at the surface for England and Wales.

Very cold overnight with severe frost and only getting a little above freezing during the day.

Obviously if this becomes a cloudy easterly, which could easily occur, then, night time minimum will be higher.

Although I know what you really mean by tame, in comparison to January 1987, definitely tame. :unsure:

Scrap that lol, just looked at the 06z if correct we have a south westerly instead lol. I'm going for a run.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Polar Continental

[Southender]

GFS 6z aint up to much either. Looks like we are going to be looking to FI (as has been the norm most winters) for any substantial cold weather. Looks distinctly average next week, maybe even double digits.

So to sum up. Chilly for the first half of next week, with some frost, then becoming milder with 8-10c maxima the norm, as the week goes on. Sunshine could be at a premium as well. So grey and mildish. Yuck

All eyes towards Feb now for the last shot of cold...

:unsure:

Edited January 21, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Nick F]

Not sure if there's even much of an easterly at the surface on the 06z GFS run, briefly perhaps across the far south on Monday with some cold air around in the east, but winds look light and variable across England and Wales Saturday onwards into early next week with slack pressure gradients under HP. A brisk or strong SW'erly developing across Scotland and N. Ireland early next week as deep lows track NE across Iceland.

Certainly a growing signal from NWP for HP to build to the W and NW in the longer term towards early Feb with perhaps the PV dropping down into Scandi.

[karyo]

Not sure if there's even much of an easterly at the surface on the 06z GFS run, briefly perhaps across the far south on Monday with some cold air around in the east, but winds look light and variable across England and Wales Saturday onwards into early next week with slack pressure gradients under HP. A brisk or strong SW'erly developing across Scotland and N. Ireland early next week as deep lows track NE across Iceland.

Certainly a growing signal from NWP for HP to build to the W and NW in the longer term towards early Feb with perhaps the PV dropping down into Scandi.

The 06z is a far cry compared to the same time yesterday with hardly an easterly at all. All the action in the northern arm of the jet, sinks the high pressure further south and east! That's quite ironic after the ECM has backtracked from it's 12z outlook.

Maybe the CET won't be as 'safe' as I thought!

Karyo

Edited January 21, 2010 by karyo

[Kentish Man]

The 06z is a far cry compared to the same time yesterday with hardly an easterly at all. All the action in the northern arm of the jet, sinks the high pressure further south and east! That's quite ironic after the ECM has backtracked from it's 12z outlook.

Maybe the CET won't be as 'safe' as I thought!

Karyo

Agreed this run represents a big back track by the GFS. Both the easterly and later northerly have been ditched and as you hint a cloudy high just to the west of us will damage prospects of recording a sub 2C CET for January.

[TEITS]

Although I know what you really mean by tame, in comparison to January 1987, definitely tame.

Morning Paul.

One word sums up the model output at the moment and thats boring.

The 06Z GFS downgrades the E,ly even further so it becomes non existent. Moving into the medium range and at this stage the HP to our W will not be in a favourable position to bring a true Arctic airmass.

I know BFTP is confident of blocking developing to our NW but at the moment I can't see it. Looks to me as though Feb will start on a fairly mild note with very typical winter synoptics i.e very low heights to our N with HP either centred over the UK or to the S. Maybe last nights 12Z ECM wasn't that far off from the truth.

[thegreat316]

what a let down the 06z is, just 12 hours ago we had a dream charts, this morning we have charts my nightmares are made of

even giving up our weak easterly this week still does not give us a northerly into feb. the storms futher north are much further south on this run.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I wasn't expecting that at all from the 6z GFS run . Still if anything it highlight's FI is around +48 . ECM must have backtracked for a reason , I mean it is only initial data , a forecaster hasn't altered it's output. Very Confusing times ahead. Both models decided to back track towards what the other was showing at the same time and it has left us in a state of confusion.

[weather eater]

Can’t say I'm confused, I've never had that much faith in the easterly so I'm not surprised by that. I still agree with BFTP and this run does not dispel the idea of the block in the Atlantic, given the range that this set-up is set for, its hardly surprising to see it come and go on model outputs. Not boring either Dave.

[Frosty.]

Funny how the gfs 06z resembles the ecm yesterday, swings and roundabouts really. As for this weekend, dull, dry and boring with near average temps sums it up.

[TEITS]

I wasn't expecting that at all from the 6z GFS run . Still if anything it highlight's FI is around +48 . ECM must have backtracked for a reason , I mean it is only initial data , a forecaster hasn't altered it's output. Very Confusing times ahead. Both models decided to back track towards what the other was showing at the same time and it has left us in a state of confusion.

Personally I feel the pattern is becoming clearer with less uncertainity.

At first we see it turning colder with a flow from the continent. We then see it turn milder with NW,lys which ride over the top of the Atlantic HP. Due to the Atlantic HP being unable to move further NW due to the lowering heights to our N and the increasing PFJ we then see this HP sink S over the UK or slightly further S.

After viewing the 06Z GFS I really think last nights 12Z ECM was on the right track. This mornings 0Z GEM at +240 best represents the likely pattern at +240.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

I would love to see a return of colder, wintry weather but if I was honest the model output this morning is about as bad as it can get. At times using instinct I can see how certain patterns may trend more favourably. However this morning I cannot see any possible way this could happen.

WE I can class relatively mild NW/W,lys as boring. Unlikely to even see a good storm in this pattern because the deep LP systems will be to the N of us!

Edited January 21, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[weather eater]

I would love to see a return of colder, wintry weather but if I was honest the model output this morning is about as bad as it can get. At times using instinct I can see how certain patterns may trend more favourably. However this morning I cannot see any possible way this could happen.

I think if this was any other recent year but this one, you would be looking at things in a more positive light, I rather fell we've been spoiled this year, so its easy to lose perspective.

[Bottesford]

WE I can class relatively mild NW/W,lys as boring. Unlikely to even see a good storm in this pattern because the deep LP systems will be to the N of us!

But surely they'll provide much more 'weather' than the recent unending low cloud coupled with a chilly east to south easterly wind. I've seen only a couple of hours of sunshine in almost two weeks now and it's getting very boring & depressing now. At least stuff from the west is more dynamic!

[karyo]

After viewing the 06Z GFS I really think last nights 12Z ECM was on the right track. This mornings 0Z GEM at +240 best represents the likely pattern at +240.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

I would love to see a return of colder, wintry weather but if I was honest the model output this morning is about as bad as it can get. At times using instinct I can see how certain patterns may trend more favourably. However this morning I cannot see any possible way this could happen.

The GEM 240 hours chart you posted, doesn't look that bad to me!

Karyo