February CET

[The PIT]

3.9C Max here Yesterday. Okay we're out of the CET area just and it looks like there's plenty of mild air in the south of the CET area but hopefully the cooler area to the north will cancel it out.

Today we're supposed to be hitting 6c or 7c according this mornings forecast. Unless the sun comes out it'll struggle to make 4c.

[AderynCoch]

If one thing looks certain, it's that February will finish with zero CET ice days.

Has there ever been a sub-3C month without any CET ice days?

[Snowly does it]

Yesterday wasn't exactly mild, 5C in Manchester, 6C in Birmingham

No, but the minima from the preceeding night were 3.7

It only needs to ber 5ish per day to get to 3.0

I may be wrong but we'll see. I think it will be a 3.0 month final figure.

[kold weather]

If one thing looks certain, it's that February will finish with zero CET ice days.

Has there ever been a sub-3C month without any CET ice days?

Well we got just 4 CET ice days (one of those was exactly 0C as well!) in Feb 83, that month ended up at 1.7C, it had a very sustained period of cold temps between 0-1C in the CET zone.

Its going to be close, but I'd imagine there may be a slight adjustment of say 0.1C at the end of the month which may just take it sub 3C...its going to be very close though either way!

[Supercell]

I think a sub 3C month should be pretty much nailed. I am currently at 2.6C and my station is usually very close to the eventual CET figure, if not exactly on the money.

[Weather-history]

If one thing looks certain, it's that February will finish with zero CET ice days.

Has there ever been a sub-3C month without any CET ice days?

I point out an ice day is when the CET daily maximum doesn't exceed 0.0C not the mean.

You could get a daily CET mean of -1C but made up of a maximum of 2C and a minimum of -4C but it is clear its not an ice day the maximum got above 0C.

Actually ice days for the CET are not that common, there were only 20 for the winter of 1962-63.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Mr_Data

[The watcher]

Looks like my 3.1c guess is going to be very close to the mark.

[AderynCoch]

I point out an ice day is when the CET daily maximum doesn't exceed 0.0C not the mean.

You could get a daily CET mean of -1C but made up of a maximum of 2C and a minimum of -4C but it is clear its not an ice day the maximum got above 0C.

Actually ice days for the CET are not that common, there were only 20 for the winter of 1962-63.

Sorry, I was referring to the mean not the maximum.

Anyway, any takers? I find it strange that a month this cold should have no *daily CET means below zero*.

Edited February 28, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Weather-history]

Well a lot of the official Feb CET daily means have come out, here's the difference between the official and provisional values that are available.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2010

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2010

1. -0.4

6. -0.3

7. -0.4

8. -0.5

9. -0.4

10. -0.2

11. -0.3

12. -0.7

13. +0.1

14. -0.8

15. -0.8

16. -0.4

17. -0.2

18. -0.9

19. 0.0

20. -0.1

21. +0.5

22. +0.4

23. +0.2

24. -0.5

25. +0.3

So with these values, the negatives are dominate so a sub 3C Feb could still be on the cards

Edited March 1, 2010 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Thus far 5.4C has been knocked off the value, assuming it stays around that level we will shave about 0.2C off the CET.

What was the end estimate for Feb?

I know Philip Eden has his at 2.9C, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the Met office come in around the same mark.

[Stu_London]

Thus far 5.4C has been knocked off the value, assuming it stays around that level we will shave about 0.2C off the CET.

What was the end estimate for Feb?

I know Philip Eden has his at 2.9C, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the Met office come in around the same mark.

I think 2.7C or 2.8C is more likely - I doubt we went up that much from the provisional 2.72 on the 25th.

[trickydicky]

2.9 degrees Celsius. You wait for a sub 3 month to come along... you know the rest.

Bump

[Optimus Prime]

Climate-uk may have finished on 2.9c but it was much colder elsewhere;

Northern Ireland 2.1c (-2.0c)

Scotland 1.1c (-1.7c)

[reef]

Areas further north did indeed have quite a cold month, mainly as the milder air didnt really push that far north. Here for example we finished 2.1C below average and didnt exceed 7.0C all month!

[SteveB]

I noticed Hadley have updated Feb to the 28th at 2.9c, -0.9c. But what has happened to Jans CET?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I noticed Hadley have updated Feb to the 28th at 2.9c, -0.9c. But what has happened to Jans CET?

1.4C.

[stewfox]

I noticed Hadley have updated Feb to the 28th at 2.9c, -0.9c. But what has happened to Jans CET?

Its far too low, with a bit of 'tweaking' should be back there tomorrow at 4.8c

Talking of tweaking who saw this ? Respect to Lawson who wrote a great book before the leaks

http://www.parliamen...?meetingId=5979

Edited March 1, 2010 by stewfox

[osmposm]

Its far too low, with a bit of 'tweaking' should be back there tomorrow at 4.8c.....etc, etc, etc.

Stew, if you - genuinely - believe the CET records are tweaked, then all these monthly CET threads, and our discussions and guesses (including yours) are pretty pointless. If you don't, and it's just a joke....well, it's getting to be a rather old and very tired one.

So, give it a rest, would you? There's a Climate Change forum where you can go on about that to your heart's content - and where I can happily avoid it.

Thanks, Ossie

[noggin]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

"Missing data"............I'm not sure whether to or .

Actually, I think I'll .

Or maybe they think it's April 1st instead of March 2nd?

[Weather-history]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

"Missing data"............I'm not sure whether to :lol: or .

Actually, I think I'll :lol: .

Or maybe they think it's April 1st instead of March 2nd?

Hadley has just come out with a Feb CET of 2.8 (2.75 rounded up)

That makes this winter's CET 2.4 and 59th coldest ever

[AderynCoch]

2.8C confirmed.

Winter CET = 2.42C - confirmed as coldest since 1978/79.

[noggin]

Ah, thanks chaps! It seems that they have found their "missing data" now. I had to laugh, although obviously it is updated now and the notice has been removed.

It is good to see some official figures which appear to tally with what has been felt "on the ground" so to speak.

Fabulous Winter. Fabulous.

[stewfox]

Stew, if you - genuinely - believe the CET records are tweaked, then all these monthly CET threads, and our discussions and guesses (including yours) are pretty pointless. If you don't, and it's just a joke....well, it's getting to be a rather old and very tired one.

So, give it a rest, would you? There's a Climate Change forum where you can go on about that to your heart's content - and where I can happily avoid it.

Thanks, Ossie

Only tiring for you my grumpy little friend Now go annoy someone else your good at that

[Thundery wintry showers]

Amazing that February, to my mind, didn't seem all that cold, and yet ended up as the coldest since 1996 by a long way. It was also colder than some Februarys that contained memorable spells of cold snowy weather, such as 1994.

I think it's been a case of "homogeneous coldness"- temperatures consistently below average but never outstandingly so, much the same as the nature of last spring's warmth.

But it's in Scotland where the winter has been most remarkable- the Northern Hemisphere might be 0.5C warmer than in the 60s and 70s, but Scotland has come remarkably close to recording its coldest winter for over 100 years. Again the dominance of northerlies, north-westerlies, and "easterlies with a northerly source" have helped to keep Scotland locked in the coldest air for much of the time, whereas many past cold winters have seen mainly continental based easterlies with Scotland in relatively mild air.

[kold weather]

Its like the saying, you wait ages for one bus, then two come along at once...

Seems like its been the same for sub 3 months, once believed unreachable by at least a few, it was matched in jan 09, nearly again in December 09, smashed in Jan and beaten for a second time in Feb.

Ah well only 0.2C out from my guess in the end!