February CET

[reef]

Yet if you put this month in most of the 00s winters bar maybe 08-09 and possibly 00-01 this month would have been seen as bar far and away the most impressive, with multiplen snow events plus cold though nothing too extreme as you say OP...

Shows how far this winter has taken us back into the good ole days to call this month unexceptional and compared to Dec/Jan at the moment I'd agree, though still time for that to change, and I suspect some parts of the Midlands will have a different veiw towards the end of the month.

Edit- yeah I think you may be right LS.

Its been a funny sort of month so far. The running mean here is 2.4C which without last month would have been the coldest since February 1991. Despite this, we've had no lying snow at 0900. Whats been most impressive is the lack of any mild at all. The high max so far is just 5.9C. The monthly average max is 7.5C here, so its been persistently cold by day. Night temperatures have rarely been more than 2C either side of freezing though, but thats due to cloudcover.

[kold weather]

Yeah I think thats a good wrap-up of this month, there has been some snow for the UK but thus far its not been quite as impressive as the last few months, though of course that may wel lchange this week...

Also the 18z is an insane run...and we would end up with a CET of 1.55C if that run came off due to exceptional cold on the 25/26th of Feb...

Lets say that run is probably something of an outlier, but it seems that we do have a wide range of possible outcomes, it seems to me the odds of a sub 2.5C CET are increasing as time goes by...

[Stu_London]

CET is 2.7C to the 19th.

Another slight fall likely today (last night weighed in at -2.6C).

I would hazard a guess that the northernmost stations will stay cold enough to keep us under 3C until the end of the month.

2.5C to 3.0C is probably the most likely range now.

[kold weather]

The exact track is going to make a HUGE difference to the CET over the next week, if the mild air stays further south then the CET zone is going to get some very temps I'd imagine, probably averaging 0-1C for much of the week, however if the system gets a little bit further north then the CET could well climb slightly instead.

I'd agree and say the raw figure seems destined for something between 2.5-3C BUT there is still enough uncertainty on the track to say anything down to 2C is still reach able...

[Gavin P]

For the coldest winter since 78-79 the CET must come in under 3.2. Looks doable?

[reef]

Hadley is still on 2.7C to the 20th. Yesterday came in at a rather cold 1.4C.

Last night's min is down as -2.6C, so it could be another cold one on tomorrow's update.

[Nick L]

Going to be a nailbiting finish to see if we get a sub-3c month....

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like another unexpected clear night tommorrow night as the low is shifted even further south

Sub 3 well and truely on,I went for 2.7c on the quiet but 3.7c on here.

[damianslaw]

High chance now we will record a sub 3 degree month, something I wasn't too sure about even just 4 days ago. Whilst milder air will creep into southern england this week, much of the CET zone looks like staying below average especially the northern stations right through to the end of the month.

The latter part of the week could produce some very cold nights if we pull in the cold air on the back of the low due to move through mid week.

Coldest Feb since 1996 I imagine, the express said since 1986, think this was a typo.

[Don]

Coldest Feb since 1996 I imagine, the express said since 1986, think this was a typo.

Yes, I think the coldest Feb since 1996 looks to be in the bag now as to achieve this it needs to be lower than 3.7C (2006), which is now looking very likely. Just a pity it hasn't been better for snow in the far south.

[kold weather]

Yep sub 3C looking pretty much odds on even before adjustments occur, now down close to my 2.6C guess and after adjustments it seems probable it could get even lower then that, so slow adjustments downwards looks the order of the day and another sub 3C CET is IMO nailed on now after adjustments have taken thier course.

[stewfox]

And so a rather unexceptional month. Little bit of rain, cool with some sunshine. CET around 2.6c at present I'd say.

Drive 20 miles north and with another heavy snow episode with snow everywhere in North Oxfordshire (with nothing again in reading where I work) it does show the contrast.

An exceptional Feb for most unless you live in Reading

[Thundery wintry showers]

Many recent months have fallen into the "homogeneously warm" category- but this February has definitely been "homogeneously cold"! Temperatures have never fallen far below the long-term average but rarely risen above it- just repeatedly near or rather below. As a result the month has contained a number of marginal snow events with an unusually high incidence of snowfall in many parts of the country, but often little in the way of lasting accumulations at low levels.

[Stargazer]

For the coldest winter since 78-79 the CET must come in under 3.2. Looks doable?

As things are heading at the moment I'd say this is almost a dead cert now (provided there are no unexpected upward adjustments). I believe we have now reached the point where we need the CET to be milder than average for the final week of the month for 3.2 to be reached, and there seems to be little sign of this happening in the CET zone.

[SteveB]

2.6c to the 21st -1.0c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Stu_London]

Last night was -2.3

Somewhere in the region of 5C needed for the rest of the month to stop a second consecutive sub 3 month

[Optimus Prime]

Upto 20th;

Scotland is running at 1.7c 1.2c below normal Coldest since 1996

N.Ireland 2.6c. 1.4c below normal Coldest Since 1986

Wales 2.6c 1.3c below normal Coldest since 1996

England 2.6c 1.4c below normal Coldest since 1996

By the end of this month I think England won't be 1996. Scotland probably the coldest since 1986 with Ireland remaining the same and Wales also remaining the same.

[Weather-history]

Last month I asked the question when was the last time we had two consecutive months that were each the coldest for at least 10 years for the CET and it turned out to be December 2008 and January 2009. But when was the last time, it was three consecutive months?

[SteveB]

Last month I asked the question when was the last time we had two consecutive months that were each the coldest for at least 10 years for the CET and it turned out to be December 2008 and January 2009. But when was the last time, it was three consecutive months?

Was it 1979? Actually it might be 1991.

Edited February 22, 2010 by SteveB

[Weather-history]

Was it 1979?

Well January 1979 was the coldest since 1963, February 1979 was the coldest since 1969 but March 1979 was only the coldest since 1970.

So close but not quite.

I think may be December 1962-February 1963

December 1962, coldest since 1950

January 1963 coldest since 1814

February 1963 coldest since 1947

Edited February 22, 2010 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

A more interesting fact perhaps, is if we can get 2.7C this month, that will be the third month in this winter to end up 1.5C or lower then the average at the time, last time this was managed??

1962-63!

Edited February 22, 2010 by kold weather

[Tom D]

Looks like I'm going to be well out with my 5.3c.. I feel like I should hang my head in shame!

That's a fascinating fact kold, it's little things like that which could put this winter up there with the famous ones, rather than amongst the memorable ones.

[damianslaw]

Looks like we will be close to rivalling Feb 96 in the CET stakes, with Scotland probably having there coldest Feb since 1986.

Its been great comparing our winter months this year to good cold months in the past. Can we see a March like 2006 next please..

[SteveB]

Wow they're updating quick (makes a change)

2.5c to the 22nd, -1.2c

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

Edited February 23, 2010 by SteveB

[kold weather]

Looks less cold in the CET zone thanks to milder nights coming up so after today we will probably see some rises, nothing too extreme but probably getting towards 2.8C I'd imagine.

Will be interesting to see what the rainfall is like as well at the end of the month, as the 20-28th does appear to be very wet...