February CET

[Weather-history]

It looks possible that 11th December 2009-10th March 2010 CET could be beneath the official winter's CET of 2.4 Both are 90 day periods.

11th December 2009-1st March 2010 CET: 1.9C

Edited March 2, 2010 by Mr_Data

[AderynCoch]

8th coldest winter since 1895:

1. 1962/63 (-0.33C)

2. 1946/47 (1.13C)

3. 1916/17 (1.47C)

3. 1939/40 (1.47C)

5. 1978/79 (1.57C)

6. 1928/29 (1.70C)

7. 1941/42 (2.20C)

8. 2009/10 (2.43C)

9. 1981/82 (2.57C)

10. 1940/41 (2.60C)

If the first 10 days of March average 2.7C or lower, we'll get a three-month period averaging less than 2C. Looks like a bit of a stretch though.

[SteveB]

8th coldest winter since 1895:

1. 1962/63 (-0.33C)

2. 1946/47 (1.13C)

3. 1916/17 (1.47C)

3. 1939/40 (1.47C)

5. 1978/79 (1.57C)

6. 1928/29 (1.70C)

7. 1941/42 (2.20C)

8. 2009/10 (2.43C)

9. 1981/82 (2.57C)

10. 1940/41 (2.60C)

If the first 10 days of March average 2.7C or lower, we'll get a three-month period averaging less than 2C. Looks like a bit of a stretch though.

I must say its a sight to behold. Long may it continue

[Iceni]

That makes this winter's CET 2.4 and 59th coldest ever

De de DAH!!!!

I was spot on. Where's my prize? :lol: :lol:

[guitarnutter]

Now if we could just keep that green line there 'till December...

[ScottSnow]

8th coldest winter since 1895:

1. 1962/63 (-0.33C)

2. 1946/47 (1.13C)

3. 1916/17 (1.47C)

3. 1939/40 (1.47C)

5. 1978/79 (1.57C)

6. 1928/29 (1.70C)

7. 1941/42 (2.20C)

8. 2009/10 (2.43C)

9. 1981/82 (2.57C)

10. 1940/41 (2.60C)

If the first 10 days of March average 2.7C or lower, we'll get a three-month period averaging less than 2C. Looks like a bit of a stretch though.

Noticed that there are also three conscutive winters in the top ten (39/40, 40/41 and 41/42) which is a remarkable feat. 1947 meant that there were four winters from the 1940's in the top ten.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now if we could just keep that green line there 'till December...

That is some chart - just emphasises how cold this winter has been.

[J10]

Just doing the figures for this now, wasn't expecting the final CET to be confirmed so quickly.

A lot of revisions by people this month notably from both SteveB and Tommyd1258, who both got the 2.8c correct at one stage, only to change their minds later.

[Polar Gael]

Hadley has just come out with a Feb CET of 2.8 (2.75 rounded up)

That makes this winter's CET 2.4 and 59th coldest ever

Back of the net!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally!!!!!!!!!!!!! :) :) :) :D :D :D :D :D

2009-10 truly has been the definitive winter - especially for us here in Scotland. A wonder and a privilege to live through it.

Remember all that p*sh about the M****n E*a? Aye, right!

Long may winters like this continue. Fantastic.

[Optimus Prime]

M0dern Winter has gone out of the winter due to one cold one. Remember all the mild ones? I don't think this ones averaged 10c below normal wiping out the traces left since 1990

Edited March 2, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

M0dern Winter has gone out of the winter due to one cold one. Remember all the mild ones?

You seem to have forgotten last winter was a cold one...

[North-Easterly Blast]

Philip Eden quotes that this February was the fourth most easterly February on record - and yet although it was below average it was still not excessively cold and certainly nothing like the three most easterly Februarys ever, 1895, 1947 and 1986. So, yes whilst this winter has been the coldest for many areas for 31 years, February still has not been as cold as it should have been or as logic would suggest given the easterly component to the mean airflow, so in Feb 2010 the echoes of UK Global Warming have still not been away from us, so if the 4th most easterly February cannot produce an approaching similarly cold February to the above three what can? If February's easterliness had delivered the sort of low CET that should have been expected then this winter would have been an absolute classic.

[osmposm]

Only tiring for you my grumpy little friend Now go annoy someone else your good at that

Perhaps you'd like to start a poll on who's the more annoying, eh?

This is the thread for discussions on CET measurements, and is on the whole blissfully free of petty Climate Change sniping. IMHO it would be nice to keep it that way.....a sentiment that is (I suspect) shared by many.

P.S. I said the joke was tired, not me

Edited March 2, 2010 by osmposm

[Weather-history]

so if the 4th most easterly February cannot produce an approaching similarly cold February to the above three what can?

I could argue why didn't the second most northerly January, 1981, produce a lower CET than it did? It was 4.9

The third most northerly December, 1975, only produced a CET of 5.3

It ain't as simple as that and I have told you this time and time again. The source of air has to be cold in the first place, as an easterly doesn't automatically guarantee freezing cold conditions. The easterlies of this winter have largely not been from deep cold sources as they were from those winters that you quoted whilst the northerly flows have. Hence why southern areas haven't done as well for snow as northern areas.

[North-Easterly Blast]

You seem to have forgotten last winter was a cold one...

Winter 2008-09 was slightly below average but it was not especially cold, although it was colder than most winters in the last 22 years. Winter 2009-10 has been a winter truly in the cold category (CET 3C and below). It is 14 years since we last had any winter even approaching 09-10 or anything in the cold category. Looking at records, for the UK, 14 years is a long time without anything approaching a cold winter.

With this winter just gone it is certainly a break in the trend of the post 1988 and especially post 1997 weather pattern in the UK. Only in the last two years many people were saying that a winter like 2005-06 is the best we can hope for in the current era, and that a 3.0 or even a 3.5 CET month was "the floor". So something has certainly changed for the UK this year.

[Nick L]

Come on then Ian, come out of hiding and defend the M*dern E*a

[North-Easterly Blast]

I could argue why didn't the second most northerly January, 1981, produce a lower CET than it did? It was 4.9

The third most northerly December, 1975, only produced a CET of 5.3

It ain't as simple as that and I have told you this time and time again. The source of air has to be cold in the first place, as an easterly doesn't automatically guarantee freezing cold conditions. The easterlies of this winter have largely not been from deep cold sources as they were from those winters that you quoted whilst the northerly flows have. Hence why southern areas haven't done as well for snow as northern areas.

The northerlies of December 1975 were almost always from around the northern flank of a mid-Atlantic High, and rarely if at all from inside the Arctic Circle or even further north than Iceland. So, the source of the December 1975 northerlies was not cold, so understandably the CET wasn't cold overall. I agree that January 1981 was an abnormally mild month for its synoptics, as some of the northerlies that month did come from well north up into the Arctic Circle.

As for snowfall, southern areas did very well for snow in early January and at times in December this winter, but in February snowfall was relatively little for the south as compared to northern areas.

[J10]

I have now compiled the figures and three players this month got their final entry spot on.

Polar Gael, Megamoonflake and Polar Side.

The winner of the Winter was Polar Side, Polar Gael was 2nd, and Snowstorm1 was third.

A lot of players made several changes to their entries this month, so fell free to check your entry on this thread, and if there are any problems please let me know. and I can change these scores.

Feb 2010 CET.pdf

Feb 2010 CET.xls

[Polar Gael]

I have now compiled the figures and three players this month got their final entry spot on.

Polar Gael, Megamoonflake and Polar Side.

The winner of the Winter was Polar Side, Polar Gael was 2nd, and Snowstorm1 was third.

A lot of players made several changes to their entries this month, so fell free to check your entry on this thread, and if there are any problems please let me know. and I can change these scores.

Feb 2010 CET.pdf

Feb 2010 CET.xls

Yay!!!! Thanks again JACKONE for all your hard work compiling the stats. Much appreciated by all of us on here.

M0dern Winter has gone out of the winter due to one cold one. Remember all the mild ones? I don't think this ones averaged 10c below normal wiping out the traces left since 1990

Maybe it's a blip, maybe it's the beginning of a new trend. Time will tell, as ever - and the weather will do what it likes however we decide to label it.

For the moment, I'll take the coldest winter since 1962-63 (in Scotland) to the bank and cash it.

TRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!

O yes.

[kold weather]

Just 0.2C out from the Feb end result, certainly thats an improvement, sadly the December has really killed my CET chances thanks to it being a whopping 2.7C out!

Whats rather interesting in terms of the even larger teapot over the last five winter seasons including this one is how similar the winter temps have become across the winter as a whole, all three winter months averaged pretty much the same over the last 5 years, something to watch with interest over the next few years.

Finally as for winter 08-09, I think it was cold, even more so then this winter though for large chunks of it there was little mild conditions, but the depth of cold also wasn't as potent either, still the winter came out nearly 1C colder then normal which is quite decent, nothing exceptional but not bad...

Edited March 3, 2010 by kold weather

[Snowstorm1]

3rd wooo! first time ive entered this so wippppeee :o lol

[johnholmes]

I find this surprising, aside from the idea of doing it to 2 decimal places but before I start another discussion/argument, its this

Hadley has just come out with a Feb CET of 2.8 (2.75 rounded up)

That makes this winter's CET 2.4 and 59th coldest ever

Now I was always taught in UK Met that numbers were ALWAYS rounded to the odd, ie 1.5C=1C in whole numbers thus 2.75C becomes 2.7C rounded to 1 decimal place.

Have they changed their own rules?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have to come clean and admit that my CET projections have been a fair way out this winter, particularly December which was more than 3C out. While I didn't fully buy into Ian Brown's "modern winter" theory I did think we'd need a more pronounced circulation shift over a longer period to promote the possibility of a winter as notably cold and snowy as this one, and so I overestimated the extent of any likely milder incursions during both January and February. And in addition, I thought a winter of this severity in Scotland (2nd coldest of the last century) was all but impossible (a scrutiny here suggests that it was probably the 2nd coldest since 1914).

It goes to show how easy it is to be caught out by the fickleness of the weather.

so if the 4th most easterly February cannot produce an approaching similarly cold February to the above three what can?

Further to Kevin's responses, a close look at the mean sea-level pressure and anomaly charts produced by Philip Eden shows an anomalous cyclonic/easterly flow. A cyclonic/easterly type will never be as cold as an anticyclonic/easterly type because it tends to pull modified continental air up from the south instead of bringing Arctic or Russian airmasses across from the north and east.

Perhaps if those synoptics had occurred 30 years ago it might have been about 0.5C colder, but it doesn't come close to accounting for why we got a 2.8C CET instead of a value near freezing.

Edited March 3, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[phil nw.]

I have to come clean and admit that my CET projections have been a fair way out this winter, particularly December which was more than 3C out. While I didn't fully buy into Ian Brown's "even larger teapot" theory I did think we'd need a more pronounced circulation shift over a longer period to promote the possibility of a winter as notably cold and snowy as this one, and so I overestimated the extent of any likely milder incursions during both January and February. And in addition, I thought a winter of this severity in Scotland (2nd coldest of the last century) was all but impossible (a scrutiny here suggests that it was probably the 2nd coldest since 1914).

It goes to show how easy it is to be caught out by the fickleness of the weather.

Further to Kevin's responses, a close look at the mean sea-level pressure and anomaly charts produced by Philip Eden shows an anomalous cyclonic/easterly flow. A cyclonic/easterly type will never be as cold as an anticyclonic/easterly type because it tends to pull modified continental air up from the south instead of bringing Arctic or Russian airmasses across from the north and east.

Perhaps if those synoptics had occurred 30 years ago it might have been about 0.5C colder, but it doesn't come close to accounting for why we got a 2.8C CET instead of a value near freezing.

I think with the -NAO being West based for long periods we were too far away from the Polar heights which put us under the more cyclonic Easterlies you mention.

We did on occasion have an omega block but often we were on the Eastern edge of it.

As you suggest Classic bitter cold from the North East (PCont. air) arrives usually when we have blocking over the Greenland /Iceland region with consequent low pressure over the continent ala 62/63.where we recorded much more severe cold spells.

Examples 62/63

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630118.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630219.gif

Examples 09/10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630219.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100106.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100131.gif

Still a cold Winter it was inspite of the absence of a classic Easterly as we were always on the polar side of the jet and therefore the cold side of most low pressure systems.

It`s understandable therefore that Scotland in particular had a colder Winter with prolonged snow cover for many locations further North.

Even here i can recall around 17 days with at least partial snowcover at 9am.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Feb 2010 CET is a satisfactory conclusion in terms of capping the coldest winter for 30 years ...and still has change to spare in terms of how much colder still it could have been. All it needed was one of the easterly incursions to have been more pronounced and longer lasting. But that is a minor detail even if it is has made a difference between this winter not only smashing some expectations into the stratosphere but also eclipsing some of the really extreme historical outlier winters over centuries. But that just shows how close within reach that all still is, rather being something that has been left dead on a now tideless warm beach,

The weather in the UK has always been fickle and capricious in terms of its posiition on the globe. But in terms of any patterns shifts over the last few decades then it was always inevitable that things would come full circle again to provide another very cold winter that would come to close to, or beat recent decadal records. The very capriciousness of the UK climate should always allow for that - even if a pattern becomes bedded in for a seemingly long term cyclical period, all that means in reality is that sooner or later it is going to end. Basically, by dint of it being cyclical, it means that what goes around comes around, and so it is not rocket science in terms of predicting/anticipating another very cold winter - sooner or later, irrespective of a relatively long gap.

Just a basic appreciation of the crossroads climate that the Uk has, and has always had, is enough to not get 'caught out'. It is only if one gets too entrenched in climate babble that this can happen.

And I am saying all this as someone who has passed no science exam either - so that makes me nothing special.But as a daft (semi) old bint as I am, if I can get that half way right, then surely anyone can.