February CET

[noggin]

I know it's way, way out in FI, but the March charts are looking cold too . Could be a trend developing here?

[kold weather]

Models are trending a little colder for the next 7 days or so for most of the country, so probably not going to see much change either in the next week and in with clear skies once the LP slackens out could see a few fairly cold CET returns.

[West is Best]

One of the features of this winter to me has been the absence of any grip to the milder charts. The cold has just dug in and become entrenched, with the jet way way south. So although intense cold was only really reserved for that period after Christmas through to mid-January, there's been precious little mild outside that. The rest of February looks to remain pretty chilly really, so a substantially below average winter looks certain.

[Weather-history]

with clear skies once the LP slackens out could see a few fairly cold CET returns.

Well -5C here in Manchester, so as you said clear skies and slack gradients some low minima can be achieved.

[SteveB]

3.0c to the 16th, -0.8c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[kold weather]

Mins last night were -1.7C so we should see a colder day today depending how fast the front moves out of the way, probably will be between 0.5-1C as an outcome today...

Next week looks fairly cold and if we do get any clear skies temps will plummet. I feel the GFS is probably over-doing the clear slots and thus the mins it shows are probably too low but we shall see, but under clear skies mins down to -4/5/6C are quite possible which will help to dint the CET's overnight average should any station get that average like last night.

The last 4 days currently could well be a lot milder with the models keen to bring up a strong low pressure, however we have seen that being progged and not occur once already in the models so who knows, may happen again.

For now something close to 3C looks to be the landing point IMO, what side is yet to be decided however...

[damianslaw]

Very high chance that this month will end up below average, and probably at least 0.5 degrees below average. Sadly it doesn't look like we will see a sub 3 month, the last time we saw 2 sub 3 months back to back was Dec 96 and Jan 97.

The coming nights do look preety cold for many with maxes around 3-4 degrees for many.

[lukemc]

Very high chance that this month will end up below average, and probably at least 0.5 degrees below average. Sadly it doesn't look like we will see a sub 3 month, the last time we saw 2 sub 3 months back to back was Dec 96 and Jan 97.

The coming nights do look preety cold for many with maxes around 3-4 degrees for many.

Hi,

Would that mean that this would be the coldest February since 1996?

Luke

[DAVID SNOW]

Hi,

Would that mean that this would be the coldest February since 1996?

Luke

Yes you are correct.

Feb 1996 came in at 2.5.

[kold weather]

Very high chance that this month will end up below average, and probably at least 0.5 degrees below average. Sadly it doesn't look like we will see a sub 3 month, the last time we saw 2 sub 3 months back to back was Dec 96 and Jan 97.

The coming nights do look preety cold for many with maxes around 3-4 degrees for many.

Its going to be quite close to sub 3C though, esp once adjustments are done however much depends on just how quickly the milder air sweeps in. Still it may well end up just above 3C once all is done, I'd guess somewhere between 3-3.5C looking a good bet right now for the raw figure.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Its going to be quite close to sub 3C though, esp once adjustments are done however much depends on just how quickly the milder air sweeps in. Still it may well end up just above 3C once all is done, I'd guess somewhere between 3-3.5C looking a good bet right now for the raw figure.

My 3.3C is looking pretty good at the moment! Though I'd rather see mine come in too high for the second month in a row!

edit: in fact my guess was actually 3.4C

Edited February 17, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[SteveB]

2.8c to the 17th -0.9c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[kold weather]

Mins was once again barely freezing, down to -0.8C on the CET and thus another cold day is seemingly quite likley given the snowfall today and the cloud cover should keep maxs very surpressed indeed and thus another drop in the CET should occur.

Still some big uncertanties about how long the cold will last for, the 06z keeps it cold right to the start of March, the ECM however makes it much milder by the 25th so tough to call...

Something between 2.5-3.5C now seems to be about the final end point once adjusted...

Edited February 18, 2010 by kold weather

[damianslaw]

Suspect Scotland's CET values are taking a bit of a hammering right now, with widespread maxes today barely getting up to 2 degrees and mins firmly in the sub -3 degree category. With some hefty cold nights to come, not sure what the Scottish figure is at present but I suspect the finishing result will be lower than 1996 making it the coldest Feb in Scotland since 1991..

[SteveB]

2.8c to the 18th, -0.9c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Duncan McAlister]

Some cold minima forecast for the CET region in the next few days so sub 3 a real possibility. Astonishing how anomalous this winter has been compared with recent years.

[osmposm]

Suspect Scotland's CET values are taking a bit of a hammering right now, with widespread maxes today barely getting up to 2 degrees and mins firmly in the sub -3 degree category. With some hefty cold nights to come, not sure what the Scottish figure is at present but I suspect the finishing result will be lower than 1996 making it the coldest Feb in Scotland since 1991..

Um, Scotland doesn't have a CET, though of course it has its own mean temp figures.

CET = Central England Temperature record, a measure specifically of that, and based currently (with input from other stations) on three sites stretching from Stonyhurst (Lancs), down to Pershore (Worcs), and across to Rothamsted (Herts). That is the Hadley/Met Office version. The distinguished meteorogist Philip Eden maintains his own index that he considers is more consistent with earlier versions calculated by Gordon Manley in the early 1970s, and that covered central English temp records back to 1659. See here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/archives.html and here http://www.climate-uk.com/page5.html .

The Met Office's specifically Scottish series only goes back to 1914 (part of the "Areal" series). See here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/scottemp.txt , though the figures don't seem to have been calculated, or at least published yet beyond 2008.

[kold weather]

Still some uncertainty with whats going to happen for the last 3-5 days of the month, till then a fairly cold set-up though there will be the odd milder intrusion into the south it seems as well.

I'd say unless we do get a very mild last 3 days that sub 3C is looking increasingly possible now but still some real uncertainties but I think after adjustments are done we will have our 2nd sub 3C month of the winter and all three winter months decently below normal...all 3 months 1.5C below the 71-00 average is possible!

[Snowly does it]

I'd say unless we do get a very mild last 3 days that sub 3C is looking increasingly possible now but still some real uncertainties but I think after adjustments are done we will have our 2nd sub 3C month of the winter and all three winter months decently below normal...all 3 months 1.5C below the 71-00 average is possible!

If it is 3.1 or lower then the winter, as a whole, will be the coldest since 78-79, the 8th coldest since 1900 and about the 60th coldest in the CET series.

Needs an unlikely 2.4 to get winter into the top 50 coldest in the CET Series

[kold weather]

2.4C is a little unlikely, though if it ends up a little on the colder side then expected by the models and the adjustments help us out then it is just about reachable.

Uder 3C though IMO is odds on now though IMO, looking at the 06z GFS though even if its a little too cold we should still end up below 3C even before any adjustments, so after adjustments we are IMO looking between 2.6-2.9C...

Rather happy about my 2.6C CET guess, a lot better then my last 2 punts!

[J10]

My 2.9c has got a chance as well.

[Optimus Prime]

And so a rather unexceptional month. Little bit of rain, cool with some sunshine. CET around 2.6c at present I'd say.

[kold weather]

Yet if you put this month in most of the 00s winters bar maybe 08-09 and possibly 00-01 this month would have been seen as bar far and away the most impressive, with multiplen snow events plus cold though nothing too extreme as you say OP...

Shows how far this winter has taken us back into the good ole days to call this month unexceptional and compared to Dec/Jan at the moment I'd agree, though still time for that to change, and I suspect some parts of the Midlands will have a different veiw towards the end of the month.

Edit- yeah I think you may be right LS.

Edited February 19, 2010 by kold weather

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yet if you put this month in most of the 00s winters bar maybe 08-09 and possibly 01-02 this month would have been seen as bar far and away the most impressive, with multiplen snow events plus cold though nothing too extreme as you say OP...

Shows how far this winter has taken us back into the good ole days to call this month unexceptional and compared to Dec/Jan at the moment I'd agree, though still time for that to change, and I suspect some parts of the Midlands will have a different veiw towards the end of the month.

Do you not mean 00-01? 01/02 had a coolish December at 3.8C CET but January and February were very mild at 5.6C and 7C respectively.

[Paul T]

And so a rather unexceptional month. Little bit of rain, cool with some sunshine. CET around 2.6c at present I'd say.

Its like a fireworks display; it’s ok for the first few parts and its keeping everyone mildly entertained, but just wait for the finally - because someone decided to save the budget for this display for the last quarter.....