February CET

[Optimus Prime]

For the period 23rd - 28th the CET comes in at 4.6c according to the latest GFS run.

By the 28th the CET should be around 2.95c...nail bitingly close to a below 3.0c finish! I would had thought after adjustments we'll finish about 2.9c. Scotland on the other hand...it's gonna be a proper cold month.

[kold weather]

I'd guess anyone between 2.6-2.9 is in with a good shout, my temp guess may be a touch low at 2.6C but it won't be far out, esp if there is any decent downward adjustment, still I think odds are still good for a sub 3C month.

[stewfox]

For the period 23rd - 28th the CET comes in at 4.6c according to the latest GFS run.

By the 28th the CET should be around 2.95c...nail bitingly close to a below 3.0c finish! I would had thought after adjustments we'll finish about 2.9c. Scotland on the other hand...it's gonna be a proper cold month.

I dont think a sub 3C CET is nailed yet with this milder incursions

Just out of interest I know the CET area but just how many stations contribute the CET figure ?

[kold weather]

I think Stew after adjustments we will be sub 3C, of course a lot depends on exactly how the pattern evolves, esp with regards to what low becomes dominant, if the northern one does then maxes of 7-9C are quite possible but if the southern low takes over then maxes of 3-5C are more likely which will keep it below 3C.

I think even if the raw figure comes slightly above 3C, the adjusted value will come in below.

[The PIT]

Well this mornings forecast was going to ten degrees in some parts of the cet zone which will do a bit of damage.

Have they changed their minds since then ???

Edited February 23, 2010 by The PIT

[SteveB]

2.5c to the 23rd -1.2c.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I would imagine it will rise over the coming day though.

[Don]

2.5c to the 23rd -1.2c.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I would imagine it will rise over the coming day though.

Unfortunately, it looks like rising until the end of the month now. Today feels positively Springlike in the sun. Hopefully, it should still finish as a sub 3C month, especially after any adjustments.

[stewfox]

Unfortunately, it looks like rising until the end of the month now. Today feels positively Springlike in the sun. Hopefully, it should still finish as a sub 3C month, especially after any adjustments.

How much of this mild weather gets into the northern part of the CET zone will be the key. wide contrast of temps at present

Feels tropical today (down south)

[The PIT]

Temps back to normal here so the milder air has arrived and with high dew points it doesn't look like the night will be that cold either.

[damianslaw]

The next four days in the CET zone do look above average but not by much I imagine thanks to the suppressed temps in the north, so a sub 3 month very much still on the cards, but it now doesn't look like we will beat Feb 96. Not sure what Scotland is doing CET wise, must be close to Feb 96 if not rivalling Feb 86...

[The PIT]

The next four days in the CET zone do look above average but not by much I imagine thanks to the suppressed temps in the north, so a sub 3 month very much still on the cards, but it now doesn't look like we will beat Feb 96. Not sure what Scotland is doing CET wise, must be close to Feb 96 if not rivalling Feb 86...

Well colder air over scotland and northern england won't effect the cet region so there should be rise but any massive damage will be prevented by the lack of days lef tin the month.

[Weather-history]

Temps back to normal here so the milder air has arrived and with high dew points it doesn't look like the night will be that cold either.

Manchester actually got down to -1C last night under clear skies for a time.

[Snowly does it]

Unadjusted I think it will be at 3 or 3.1 now as yesterday, there is little to suggest from Manley that there is much of a discrepancy this month so I am doubtful of much downward correction.

I think we may just miss out on a second sub 3 month.

[Weather-history]

Unadjusted I think it will be at 3 or 3.1 now as yesterday, there is little to suggest from Manley that there is much of a discrepancy this month so I am doubtful of much downward correction.

I think we may just miss out on a second sub 3 month.

Hadley has updated to 2.6 for the 24th

We are guaranteed of a sub 3C season if not a sub 3C February.

11th December-24th February CET: 1.8C

We are going to now have a 11 week period that is sub 2C.

Edited February 25, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Snowly does it]

Hadley has updated to 2.6 for the 24th

We are guaranteed of a sub 3C season if not a sub 3C February.

11th December-24th February CET: 1.8C

We are going to now have a 11 week period that is sub 2C.

Feb will be tight - today will see it rise by 0.1 or 0.2 depending on roundings as last night was 3.5 and maxes today probably 9 across the region?

Difficult - no lower than 2.9, no higher than 3.1 unadjusted?

But yes, sub 3 season, sub 2 11 week period, sub zero 30 day period is not a bad winter, all 3 months to be 1 degree or more below 71-00 averages, possibly after adjustments as much as 1.5 below that average. Possibly 2 sub 3 months in a row if we get the right numbers for the next 4 days.

[AderynCoch]

11th December-24th February CET: 1.8C

It will be interesting to see what 11th December-11th March comes in at, given that things should still be on the cold side in the first week of March.

I wonder if sub-2C is possible?

[damianslaw]

Still a significantly high chance that the CET will end up just below 3 degrees with downward adjustment, 2.9 is a good bet, Sunday night is looking quite cold which will help things.

[Nick L]

Still a significantly high chance that the CET will end up just below 3 degrees with downward adjustment, 2.9 is a good bet, Sunday night is looking quite cold which will help things.

But Sunday night/Monday morning will be March won't it?

[damianslaw]

But Sunday night/Monday morning will be March won't it?

The values up until 09:00 the 1st count towards Feb CET don't they - can anyone verify this..

[Snowly does it]

The values up until 09:00 the 1st count towards Feb CET don't they - can anyone verify this..

No, the last day's data for the 28th will be the minima of 9pm to 9am 27-28 Feb and the maxima to 9pm on the 28th

[Kentish Man]

Both Hadley and Manley are on 2.7C toay (Feb 1 - 25)

[Stu_London]

Anything under 4.7C for the last three days will secure sub 3

GFS says 3.95C

Will be close but I fancy an unadjusted figure of 2.9C - Adjustment might bring us to 2.8C or hopefully 2.7C which is my guess

[The PIT]

Yes funny how things change from a general unexpected warm back too a sudden unexpected cool down which raises the chances of a sub 3c quiet a lot. I thinks going to take a huge miss forecast by the models to miss sub 3c.

[Snowly does it]

I don't share you guys confidence - looks to me like it is almost guaranteed to finish at 3.0 or 3.1 and therefore we are reliant on corrections to come in below 3.... Manley is not running lower this month either. I can't see where the cool weather to stop the rise is coming from.

[Weather-history]

I can't see where the cool weather to stop the rise is coming from.

Yesterday wasn't exactly mild, 5C in Manchester, 6C in Birmingham