February CET

[kold weather]

Yep Eugene unless we seriously smash the Feb record by some way and thats looking pretty impossible right now!

Anyway this still looks like an amazingly tough call thanks to the models, however these easterly set-ups tend to eventually occur ven if the first attempt fails, eventually you tend to find it will slot in place when you keep getting attempts.

I'd be very surprised indeed if this month comes out as cold as Jan was as this month IMO probably will be a very mixed bag however I wouldn't be at all surprised if like buses we get another sub 3C month!

[Glacier Point]

Going to have to notch down on earlier projection. The most likely evolution following cold will be for a high pressure sinker, and suface cold will likely persist.

Revise down to 3.2C please.

[reef]

Hadley is at 2.9C to the 3rd. Yesterday was 2.3C.

Today's minima is sub-zero again at -0.4C (the sixth consecutive day below freezing), so a number in the high 3s or 4 looks likely on tomorrow's update.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think I'll stick with my initial prediction as I'd find a 4 day penalty too costly, but I have to admit that my initial 4.9C is starting to look like it may be a little high...

[kold weather]

Looks like the next few days will see rises in the CET back towards average but after that seems to be increasing confidence on a cold spell kicking in, though the strength of this cold shot still has to be resolved. I suspect its quite likely we will be below 3C by mid month though even if its not the most potent of cold spells, obviously if it does power on through then it could be decently lower then that by then.

Think odds of another sub 3C month are improving all the time.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Im going, for a 2.2 CET month

[LomondSnowstorm]

last minute revision from me - 3.4C

Just to clarify, the prediction was not for -3.4C, but for 3.4C

Looking close to the mark so far, perhaps slightly too high actually - maybe that last minute revision was a bit hasty!

[damianslaw]

Above average CET days look likely up until Sunday, then a sharp fall will take place.

Scotland is seeing a cold start to the month, and N England slightly below average temps.

I can some fairly low CET minima next week, we've not seen significant cold nights for a long while recently in the CET zone.

[Snowyowl9]

I`ve should`ve gone for a degree lower at 2.7c but I won`t bother thats my 2nd guess on the quiet.

[osmposm]

Im going, for a 2.2 CET month

...and a pretty crippling 40-point late penalty, which will make a bad dent in your score even if you're spot on!

I think I'll stick with my initial prediction as I'd find a 4 day penalty too costly, but I have to admit that my initial 4.9C is starting to look like it may be a little high...

I tend to think anything over two days late is not worth it, as you can easily end up with a negative score...

Edited February 5, 2010 by osmposm

[kold weather]

Looking more and more likely tyhat sub 3C is once again very much on the cards. The next 2 days look fairly mild but once these are out of the way it looks once again increasingly cold. Not sure it will have the staying power to challenge Jan's CET but certainly sub 3C once again IMO is likely to be in the driving seat!

[Snowyowl9]

Looking more and more likely tyhat sub 3C is once again very much on the cards. The next 2 days look fairly mild but once these are out of the way it looks once again increasingly cold. Not sure it will have the staying power to challenge Jan's CET but certainly sub 3C once again IMO is likely to be in the driving seat!

Looks like a couple of colder nights coming up now,tomorrow will be the last relatively mild day.

Today was one of the mildest day this winter but just 7.5c here.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1817.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn4217.png

Does look like further west will be coldest as we drag an east wind around the low today,and the east flow comes back after that.

[kold weather]

Today could be the mildest day since early December before the cold spell came down, last nights mins came in at a decent 3.1C. Next 2 days will add a decent amount to the CET but from the 7th onwards we should see a steady decline, esp thanks to the possibly very cold period coming up.

Sub 3C got to be the most likely option right now I'd say looking at the models, though of course a week with 7-10C temps could make a massive rise in the CET...so too early to make that sort of call just yet.

[Stu_London]

CET 3.77C to the 5th

GFS 06z says 2.2C to the 14th, although I suspect as with previous cold spells they might have underdone the minimums slightly.

I would say sub 3C is still the slight outsider, mainly because maximums in late Feb can by boosted by a bit of sunshine even if the uppers remain relatively cold.

somewhere close to 3C looks most likely, below average is long odds on already given the outlook

[damianslaw]

CET 3.77C to the 5th

GFS 06z says 2.2C to the 14th, although I suspect as with previous cold spells they might have underdone the minimums slightly.

I would say sub 3C is still the slight outsider, mainly because maximums in late Feb can by boosted by a bit of sunshine even if the uppers remain relatively cold.

somewhere close to 3C looks most likely, below average is long odds on already given the outlook

The upcoming cold period looks like it will deliver widespread maxima between 0 and 2 degrees, and mins anywhere from between -2 - -8 in the north and west but probably the range of 0- -3 in the south and east due to more cloud and stronger winds, however, retrogression of the high to the NW would help to clear murky cloudy weather in the south and east, polar air is much better than an easterly off the near continent in terms of clear skies. I'll be very surprised if we don't see a below average Feb almost odds on I say, 2 degrees probably the lowest we can realistically expect, but I wouldn'r rule out something close to this figure.

[Snowly does it]

OK, let's look at some targets for February to achieve various milestones (I am assuming Jan at 1.4)

15.9 - Warmest winter in the CET series

9.1 - Winter above the 71-00 average (8.9 to be below)

7.8 - Winter above the 61-90 average (7.6 to be below)

6.0 - Coldest winter of the 21st century

4.5 - Coldest winter since 1985-86

4.4 - Winter below 3 degrees overall

4.1 - All three winter months below the 71-00 average

3.9 - All three winter months below 4 degrees (first time since 78-79)

3.7 - All three winter months below the 61-90 average

3.1 - Coldest winter since the winter of discontent (78-79)

2.3 - All three winter months 1.5 below the 61-90 average

2.2 - All three winter months 2 degrees below the 71-00 average

1.4 - Winter below 2 degrees overall

0.1 - Coldest winter since 62-63

-8.1 - Coldest winter in the CET series

[Snowyowl9]

CET 3.77C to the 5th

GFS 06z says 2.2C to the 14th, although I suspect as with previous cold spells they might have underdone the minimums slightly.

I would say sub 3C is still the slight outsider, mainly because maximums in late Feb can by boosted by a bit of sunshine even if the uppers remain relatively cold.

somewhere close to 3C looks most likely, below average is long odds on already given the outlook

I would say sub 3c looks more possible than ever this feb with severe frosts and a cold high,followed by bitter easterlies of a bitter very thick snowcovered continent.

Has January CET confirmed yet.

[Stu_London]

I would say sub 3c looks more possible than ever this feb with severe frosts and a cold high,followed by bitter easterlies of a bitter very thick snowcovered continent.

Has January CET confirmed yet.

Latest GFS temperature predictions dont quite support that severe a scenario, although they are not the greatest guide particularly beyond a couple of days. If the cold spell were to see the month out, then somewhere nearer 2.0 might transpire, but I fancy a bit of a warm up before the 28th.

[kold weather]

Nice selction of benchmarks there, looking at the models every solution I can see suggest below average being sustained for at least the next 10 days. Unless we get a decent snow event I'd be very surprised if we get anything as cold as early Jan but obviously you don't need it to be that cold get a sub 3C month.

Whether or not we get the easterly flow or not remains to be seen but in the end the temps would probably balance out, with an easterly cloud cover won't allowmins to drop that far away, whilst if the HP builds very close by then mins will likely be quite low whilst higher maxes....and obviously the other way round for daytime temps.

I'm pretty confident already of a landing point between 2-3C, I suspect there will be a milder part of the month towards the backend but whether thats enough to make a big change in the CET, who knows!

[Roger J Smith]

Anybody want to revise their January guess? Looks like you still have some time.

[guitarnutter]

OK, let's look at some targets for February to achieve various milestones (I am assuming Jan at 1.4)

-8.1 - Coldest winter in the CET series

Fingers crossed

[AderynCoch]

Haha, I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if such a scenario were to actually entail. Even in 1684 and 1740 I highly doubt the CET zone managed even a week averaging -8.1C.

[cheeky_monkey]

Haha, I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if such a scenario were to actually entail. Even in 1684 and 1740 I highly doubt the CET zone managed even a week averaging -8.1C.

its interesting and i would have thought possible somewhere and some point..i wonder what the coldest week ever recorded in the CET zone actually is???

[Stu_London]

its interesting and i would have thought possible somewhere and some point..i wonder what the coldest week ever recorded in the CET zone actually is???

There may be colder periods however these are pretty notable

09Jan1814 - 15Jan1814 = -5.31C

14Jan1838 - 20Jan1838 = -6.16C

20Jan1795 - 26Jan1795 = -5.99C

more recently

19Jan1963 - 25Jan1963 = -5.19C

09Jan1987 - 15Jan1987 = -3.80C

[Weather-history]

its interesting and i would have thought possible somewhere and some point..i wonder what the coldest week ever recorded in the CET zone actually is???

Well a good starting point would be mid Feb 1895

6th-12th Feb 1895 CET: -6.3