Cold Spell Discussion

[Lewis]

Saying 'heavy snow' when the reality might be a bit of back edge wet snow are two different things and potentially misleading for the layman.

Personally I think it is time the SE/E Anglia had their own model thread where TEITS,NSSC,SM and Nick S can post and we can have the main thread for all other areas where matters can be discussed without such a constant bias.

I agree, i think they should have their own thread.

Although I would like Nick S to stay in here as much as possible

There's way to much SE/E Anglia favourtism in this thread. It's like every cold spell that happens the people in the SE and E Anglia have to hold their hands up and say its our cold spell, it's our snow, sod other areas.

It really frustrates me when the MODELS all but the UKMO are showing against, yet the GFS recently has had the highest verification stats, fair enough the UKMO has human input. But human input can manipulate things, and it's subject to a lot of error.

I think a lot of people in here need to chill out and see what happens, we are in reliable time frame now and with the GFS (especially) and skew-t, NMM models showing the same with regards snow risk (North of the East Midlands) are in the prime position, areas South will see mainly rain,sleet, and if lucky a little wet snow.

Lewis

Edited February 14, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[TEITS]

I agree, i think they should have their own thread.

Although I would like Nick S to stay in here as much as possible :blush:

There's way to much SE/E Anglia favourtism in this thread. It's like every cold spell that happens the people in the SE and E Anglia have to hold their hands up and say its our cold spell, it's our snow, sod other areas.

It really frustrates me when the MODELS all but the UKMO are showing against, yet the GFS recently has had the highest verification stats, fair enough the UKMO has human input. But human input can manipulate things, and it's subject to a lot of error.

I think a lot of people in here need to chill out and see what happens, we are in reliable time frame now and with the GFS (especially) and skew-t, NMM models showing the same with regards snow risk (North of the East Midlands) are in the prime position, areas South will see mainly rain,sleet, and if lucky a little wet snow.

Lewis

Why?

This morning I commented on the model output and suggested E Anglia/SE could be at risk of snow next week. Now the Met O are also warning about these areas. May I suggest the reason some are annoyed is simply down to E Anglia/SE being favoured again. Remember prior to last week you complained about my posts when I suggested snow for the SE and yet the SE did experience the heaviest snowfalls.

Don't shoot the messenger!

[nick sussex]

Saying 'heavy snow' when the reality might be a bit of back edge wet snow are two different things and potentially misleading for the layman.

Personally I think it is time the SE/E Anglia had their own model thread where TEITS,NSSC,SM and Nick S can post and we can have the main thread for all other areas where matters can be discussed without such a constant bias.

Ian I really have to take issue with this post. Considering I don't even live in the UK anymore how on earth can I be biased to a certain region?

The problem is that there are more posters that live in the se who also follow the models more closely and post their thoughts. If people think theres too much bias then why don't they also take a keener interest and post more views regarding their own area!

I'm really very surprised and disappointed with your current attitude!

[Alex95]

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Run through the map forecast, which has a heavy snow symbol over the London area for the whole day.

Yeah but I never use those symbols, if you click on London it says heavy snow and 5°C, sure the temperature might drop during the day to allow the predominant weather for that day to be heavy snow, and snow can sometimes fall at surprisingly high temperatures, but I can't see it settling if that temperature is reached during the day. I think the METO are covering their backs with that advisory, though the one for Northern Scotland is sensible imo.

Edited February 14, 2010 by alza

[Thundery wintry showers]

The problem is more that there is a lot of IMBY type discussion in the Model Output Discussion thread and a lot of value judgements (e.g. "fantastic run X, dreadful run Y") which are usually based on the chances of wintry weather happening in the SE, simply because the population density there is a lot higher than elsewhere.

I suggest that it's this IMBYism that is the main problem, not seeing the bigger picture, rather than a South East bias. Note that I specified the Model Output Discussion- I see no problem with a dose of IMBYism in the Model Moods thread or in this thread for example.

And yes, I do get annoyed by the South East bias from our not-so-wonderful media- just because less people live outside of the South East, it doesn't mean that they should be ignored or considered less important than those living in the Home Counties area, yet the media often acts as if they should be. I would take issue with anyone on this forum who suggested that those living elsewhere should just "get used to it" and accept that their region was less important. But I don't think there's much of that going on in these threads.

[snowray]

Why?

This morning I commented on the model output and suggested E Anglia/SE could be at risk of snow next week. Now the Met O are also warning about these areas. May I suggest the reason some are annoyed is simply down to E Anglia/SE being favoured again. Remember prior to last week you complained about my posts when I suggested snow for the SE and yet the SE did experience the heaviest snowfalls.

Don't shoot the messenger!

I'm feeling quite sorry for you TEITS, there seem to be one or two on here that seem to want to wind you up me thinks, though your taking it very well, so bully for you.

All this regionalism and grumpy posts this morning is not nice, and it's been getting worse of late too, as someone said earlier, was it that a few posters never got any valentines cards thats made them so peeved off then? Probably, , but this has been going on since the snow for East kent was 1st spotted, or an Easterly at any rate it started to esculate.

Seems if someone just mentions that it MIGHT snow for the South East now, certain members just go all mentally unstable and start frothing at the mouth, it's all very strange. I had a similar experience recently in Brum, everyone thought that Birmingham should be the Capital because its the Centre of the country, and going on about London favouritism. We have devolution in Scotland, do people want devolution of the Midlands now, what next, the republic of Cornwall?

Now I admit that there is a small amount of London favourism but not necessarily SE in general. You will find this though with all Capital cities in the World, when an international journalist for example is in France he reports generally from Paris, In Italy, Rome, Germany, Berlin. These are the political, economic and banking (not always but it is in the case of London)centres, its also where major International airports are situated and rail stations. So it stands to reason that London might just be favoured at times.

And of course, as we all know, heavy snowfall in London creates major chaos, so I'm damn sure that the MO and BBC get quite edgy when theres even a small chance of disruption, not wanting to get it caught out and all hell let lose with the all the angry pointy fingers starting all over again. I'm sure they would much prefer an easy life down in sunny exeter.

After all, god forbid should posh and becks were to get delayed at Heathrow and their flight to Milan is cancelled because of snow, or president Sarkozy should get stuck in the Euro Tunnel for 8 hours with a lost conection to his mobile phone!

Edited February 14, 2010 by snowray

[Avain]

Was this 63? I think it might be.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00f2ksz/Snowdrift_at_Bleath_Gill/

[Tucco]

Was this 63? I think it might be.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00f2ksz/Snowdrift_at_Bleath_Gill/

1955.

[snowray]

1955.

I know that a few people deny this, but prior to the 80s (ish), all the North East needed was a sniff of an Easterly and it usually meant snow and drifts, these days its mainly snizzle. This Winter had been a bit more like the good old day of course.

Edited February 14, 2010 by snowray

[damianslaw]

Not sure whether the SE/E Anglia will see snow level snow, I doubt the precipitation will be particularly heavy and consequently evaporative cooling will not be in evidence, which will be the key factor I feel for any low level snow. The heat island affect of London will certainly prevent any low level snow cover I feel.

The SE and East Anglia is holding on to the colder continental air longest and it is this reason why i think the BBC have put an advisory our for these parts.

I think much of central northern england may see some snow cover at some point later tomorrow.

Scotland seems very well placed for some significant snowfall as the week wears on especially the NE. Western and SW Scotland could catch some trough action and potentially NW England.

Towards the end of the week, much of the north high chance of snow I feel.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I know that a few people deny this, but prior to the 80s (ish), all the North East needed was a sniff of an Easterly and it usually meant snow and drifts, these days its mainly snizzle. This Winter had been a bit more like the good old day of course.

Those few people must be right then. Easterlies have always required cold upper air in order to generate the required instability for heavy prolonged snow showers off the North Sea, and airmasses originating over southern Europe in association with the Scandinavian High have always had a tendency to be dull and dry.

Marginality near the east coast were also more common in the old days than you might think. Even in January 1963, it was common for Newcastle to be registering 3C while most other parts of the country were sub-zero, due to the wind off the sea.

There were certainly a lot more snowy easterlies back in the old days than there are these days, which is partly down to synoptics and partly down to warmer airmasses, but easterlies have never been reliable sources of big snow events- but the more extreme ones that do deliver such events selectively stick in the memory.

[TEITS]

I suggest that it's this IMBYism that is the main problem, not seeing the bigger picture, rather than a South East bias. Note that I specified the Model Output Discussion- I see no problem with a dose of IMBYism in the Model Moods thread or in this thread for example.

Utter rubbish.

This morning I posted my interpretation of the fax charts and highlighted two areas that could see snowfall, NE Scotland, E Anglia/SE. Around 2hrs later the Met O released warnings for these exact areas. So I think its fair to say that my interpretation of the fax charts was correct.

What do members want me to say? Should I say widespread snow for all areas to keep the peace? The answer is no because then members would complain that I misled them. Lets use last week as an example. I said the SE would see a majority of the snow showers but this didn't go down too well and the usual suspects complained about being biased to the SE i.e Lewis. However the reality was the SE DID see the majority of the snow showers with 10cm in E kent.

Some of us are becoming very tired of this IMBY nonsense. If N England or Ireland looks likely to see snow in the model output then I will say so!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

SE bias or not dosent bother me as such, after all its the most populated area, the capital is there, so most members are on here from the SE, and of course the SE sees more snow than most of England and Wales and parts of scotland

Im very imby as its called, but cant get as excited as the SE members as I dont see anywhere near those amounts of snow, Its the best area to live weatherwise, loads of snow, little rain, more sun and better summers due to continental climate

[Mrsf16]

Utter rubbish.

This morning I posted my interpretation of the fax charts and highlighted two areas that could see snowfall, NE Scotland, E Anglia/SE. Around 2hrs later the Met O released warnings for these exact areas. So I think its fair to say that my interpretation of the fax charts was correct.

What do members want me to say? Should I say widespread snow for all areas to keep the peace? The answer is no because then members would complain that I misled them. Lets use last week as an example. I said the SE would see a majority of the snow showers but this didn't go down too well and the usual suspects complained about being biased to the SE i.e Lewis. However the reality was the SE DID see the majority of the snow showers with 10cm in E kent.

Some of us are becoming very tired of this IMBY nonsense. If N England or Ireland looks likely to see snow in the model output then I will say so!

TEITS the most ironic thing is that the whole of EA EXCEPT yours and my backyards are covered by METO warnings!!!!

Personally I dont find your forecasts biased at all. Infact sometimes I wish they were more so (from a IMBY pov!). You say it as you see it. You posted this week in the Model thread about more Nothern areas of the country and didnt mention SE/EA once..... I remember it because I was going to quote it and highlight that is wasnt a IMBY post!! Carry on doing what you do, and ignore the wind up merchants. Plenty of people value your interpretations.

[TEITS]

Its the best area to live weatherwise, loads of snow, little rain, more sun and better summers due to continental climate

You make a very vaild point.

The SE can experience some of the coldest upper temps, large snowfalls, very high temps in summer, spectacular thunderstorms and like you say the reason for this is the proximity of the continent.

Due to being the most prone to extremes is why I feel some have this dislike to the SE due to many of us enjoying the extremes of weather.

[Cheese Rice]

I think it is perfectly acceptable that there is a south east bias on the forums, most of the posters do live in the south east after all. Members who live in the south east do mention others places as well, just not as much detail which is expected. If it is going to snow in the Midlands I would mention it, but if it was going to snow in Yorkshire then I would go into far more detail as I'm really only interested in what affects me not what affects somewhere else.

Edited February 14, 2010 by 10123

[disco-barry]

Yes but it's the South-east so thats a minus for one

I love where i live in West Yorkshire, it's rural...When snow is marginal we get it, when it isn't marginal we reallllly get it and we have some amazing snow drifts. In the spring/summer the it is often pretty dry and lower down we're pretty sheltered so we have long sunny days and in the Autumn the moors look amazing!

[Never snows where i live]

Hi,

Just wanted to know what IMBY means as its been bothering me.

BTW, i've enjoyed the posts on here (mainly the model output thread) especially as i'm a first time learner. But i find it hard to learn with some of the constant bickering like kids. I suggest that if you nothing nice to say about another fellow member(s) then simply don't bother posting as its irritating trying to trawl though all the posts to actual see what more experienced guys like yourselves make of the charts.

Although i have learnt alot so far this winter with the vast difference in charts, its been an incredible learning curve for me.

Also, what has the merseyside area chances of snow next week?

Cheers all.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Never snows where i live

[Cheese Rice]

SE bias or not dosent bother me as such, after all its the most populated area, the capital is there, so most members are on here from the SE, and of course the SE sees more snow than most of England and Wales and parts of scotland

Im very imby as its called, but cant get as excited as the SE members as I dont see anywhere near those amounts of snow, Its the best area to live weatherwise, loads of snow, little rain, more sun and better summers due to continental climate

Can't really say its the best place weather wise, in summer yes, but in winter it's North East of England and Scotland that do the best. So far Ive had far more snow than anywhere in the South east.

[DAVID SNOW]

TEITS the most ironic thing is that the whole of EA EXCEPT yours and my backyards are covered by METO warnings!!!!

Personally I dont find your forecasts biased at all. Infact sometimes I wish they were more so (from a IMBY pov!). You say it as you see it. You posted this week in the Model thread about more Nothern areas of the country and didnt mention SE/EA once..... I remember it because I was going to quote it and highlight that is wasnt a IMBY post!! Carry on doing what you do, and ignore the wind up merchants. Plenty of people value your interpretations.

Yep would agree,dave posts what he sees for ALL areas, rain,snow,sleet.

[Mrsf16]

Hi,

Just wanted to know what IMBY means as its been bothering me.

Cheers all.

IMBY= In My Back Yard

You might also see NIMBY which is Not In My Back Yard

[LomondSnowstorm]

Utter rubbish.

This morning I posted my interpretation of the fax charts and highlighted two areas that could see snowfall, NE Scotland, E Anglia/SE. Around 2hrs later the Met O released warnings for these exact areas. So I think its fair to say that my interpretation of the fax charts was correct.

What do members want me to say? Should I say widespread snow for all areas to keep the peace? The answer is no because then members would complain that I misled them. Lets use last week as an example. I said the SE would see a majority of the snow showers but this didn't go down too well and the usual suspects complained about being biased to the SE i.e Lewis. However the reality was the SE DID see the majority of the snow showers with 10cm in E kent.

Some of us are becoming very tired of this IMBY nonsense. If N England or Ireland looks likely to see snow in the model output then I will say so!

Some comments on the model thread are related to the area that people live, but this is entirely natural. Also, I do not count you, NSCS, Nick Sussex or Steve Murr in that category. I believe I made a slightly dismissive comment last night but this was only because I was looking further out and not checking the UKMO output compared to the GFS for precipitation/uppers, but you have been fairly spot on so far. The main risk area for tomorrow and Tuesday is the Southeast/East Anglia and Northern/Eastern Scotland. After that northern England, northern Ireland and Scotland is more at risk but specifics will always be hard to pin down. Also, the snow events that people think are going to be the major ones often turn out to be let downs while others often provide much more snow than expected - e.g. the 19th December was hailed as being a big snow event for Scotland but most barely saw a cm while it was said to be dry after the 21st and yet around 4-6 inches accumulated on the morning of the 23rd from a trough picked up around 36 hours before it hit without a met office warning until about 2 hours before it hit. Low pressure and cold uppers = snowfall, whereabouts exactly we don't know but north or central rather than south after Tuesday.

[Never snows where i live]

IMBY= In My Back Yard

You might also see NIMBY which is Not In My Back Yard

Cheers, I originally thought it was In My Biased......but i didn't really know what the 'Y' stood for.

Cheers for clearing that up for me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Utter rubbish.

This morning I posted my interpretation of the fax charts and highlighted two areas that could see snowfall, NE Scotland, E Anglia/SE. Around 2hrs later the Met O released warnings for these exact areas. So I think its fair to say that my interpretation of the fax charts was correct.

What do members want me to say? Should I say widespread snow for all areas to keep the peace? The answer is no because then members would complain that I misled them. Lets use last week as an example. I said the SE would see a majority of the snow showers but this didn't go down too well and the usual suspects complained about being biased to the SE i.e Lewis. However the reality was the SE DID see the majority of the snow showers with 10cm in E kent.

Some of us are becoming very tired of this IMBY nonsense. If N England or Ireland looks likely to see snow in the model output then I will say so!

No, it's not rubbish at all, and your post seems to be implying that I was specifically getting at you, when nothing in my post even came vaguely close to doing so. Indeed, if I referred to one of your posts as being "rubbish" I'd be shot down in flames, a double standard reflecting the clique that has formed in the MOD area.

Sometimes I go into the model output discussion and see a cascade of posts saying, "dreadful run", "no good can possibly come out of this outlook", and then go and browse the charts, and wonder if I'm looking at a different set of charts. The reason is usually that snow potential is downgraded for south-east England, irrespective of what has happened for the other regions.

Some people (e.g. Lewis) do complain unreasonably about the SE bias but that doesn't mean that the whole concept is nonsense. There is, genuinely, sometimes too much focus on local prospects at the expense of general model output discussion, and the "SE bias" is a consequence of the fact that it is the most densely populated area of the country. It is, indeed, natural for people to focus on their local areas in particular, but there are differing degrees of it and on occasion it can get excessive as per the experiences I relate to above.

[Ben_Cambs]

Im not happy with this moaning SE/EA bias going on, because this is where the majority of the UK population lives and this translates into where a majority of members in the forum are based, so there is always going to be some form of bias, and a couple of members have gone too far with this, like saying "There should be a model thread for SE and EA". What a load of rubbish

Edited February 14, 2010 by Snowman0697