Cold Spell Discussion

[Neilsouth]

Thunder, lightning and lots of snow in Dover this morning, was supposed to be going into Folkestone to work for 9am, but have decided not to even think about it. The M20 and the A2 are down to one lane and it's still snowing. All the schools are closed, and just read that there is a power cut in Deal as well! Seems to be very localised though, just this little corner of East Kent!

We had an intense hailstorm in the early hours and deep snow , faversham seems to be the western point of the heaviest snowfall...

9cm here

[Thundery wintry showers]

The downside of an easterly for this region is lack of snow, its very frustrating seeing the showers running down the east of the Pennines and when they try to get through the Pennines they just fizzle out - the Pennines reach nearly 3000ft immediately to our east which is a very big barrier, nowhere else in England is there such a barrier, the reverse is true for NE England who generally does very well on the dry stakes out of a showery westerly or north westerly, the Pennines act as a major block.

I remember in my youth, as a convective storm lover I used to find that very frustrating, especially when I heard reports rubbing it in about how we were escaping with the best of the weather. The Pennines have a habit of letting the frontal rain across (albeit downgrading its intensity) and stopping convective precipitation from getting across, particularly in autumn and winter.

It's also notable in the summer as well- many other regions of eastern Britain see some of their biggest convective storms from polar maritime westerly flows when convection sprouts up over the solar-heated landmass, but the relatively narrow landmass in northern England, plus the strongly leeward aspect of the Tyne and Wear area, tends to inhibit summer convection in a westerly. These factors play a smaller role in summer when winds are relatively light, and in those cases Tyneside often sees rather more in the way of convection. The same convection-limitation also appears to be true (perhaps even to a greater extent) around the Kingdom of Fife.

However, in a north-westerly Tyneside can sometimes get very dramatic convection in spring and summer as a result of convergence along the North Sea coast.

[John London]

Beautiful day here, we have all the outside doors and windows open in the offices to let the air flow through. Bring on the Spring.

[Thunder Snow]

Updated my forecast guys, im still expecting snow next week but it could be very border-line. I will try and update the further ahead part when the 12z comes out. To see my forecast click on my sig, feel free to leave some comments

[ZONE 51]

dusting of snow down east for most tonight i would think. chart is for 6am tomo

Updated my forecast guys, im still expecting snow next week but it could be very border-line. I will try and update the further ahead part when the 12z comes out. To see my forecast click on my sig, feel free to leave some comments

thanks for the update ,yes another exciting week ahead(more tho in general for alot of us) and with low in control this time , so some risk of snow events for more of us

Edited February 11, 2010 by nimbilus

[Thunder Snow]

The 12z not looking very good.

[dvdfjojo]

The 12z not looking very good.

Really, looks like the low moves east giving us a n/e then a northerly with a bit of snowfest while it's doing it. Am I reading them wrong?

[Liam J]

out walking today east of alston cumbria/durham border lovely day with the sun sparkling on the very deep snow cover that persists at elevation. there was a severe wind chill with the car showing -2c most of the day.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I remember in my youth, as a convective storm lover I used to find that very frustrating, especially when I heard reports about rubbing it in how we were escaping with the best of the weather. The Pennines have a habit of letting the frontal rain across (albeit downgrading its intensity) and stopping convective precipitation from getting across, Particularly in autumn and winter.

It's also noticeable in the summer as well-many other regions of eastern Britain see some of their biggest convective storms from polar marine westerly flow when convection sprouts up over the solar-heated landmass, but the relatively narrow landmass in northern England, the more strongly leeward side of the Tyne and Wear area, tend to inhibit convection in summer in Westerly. These factors play a smaller role in summer when winds are relatively light, and in those cases Tyneside often sees rather more in the way of convection. The same convection -limitation also appears to be true (perhaps even to a greater extent) around the Kingdom of Fife.

However, in a north-westerly Tyneside can sometimes get very dramatic convection in spring and summer as a result of convergence along the North Sea coast.

[/ quote]

Yeah, that does have a habit of happening here also!

Nowcasting is the only way to go with the coming potential snow events - marginal almost everywhere on low ground!

I think my area could do quite well out of this set up but who knows really!

Warm sectors cropping up will be another pitfall, but also a help when it comes to precipitation. In summary, it doesn't look very warm but that's about all I can say at the moment!

[La Bise]

Excellent pics James. I saw similar stuff on Kinder Scout a couple of weeks ago and judging by what I can see from the office window, it is still the case.

An exceptionnal winter for the high places, there has been snow on the Peak District since mid-december and if at times the cover was quite reduced, it's the first time in a long time I remember such persistance in the snow.

Next week might be marginal for low-levels but I expect a good top-up above 400m ish

[keithlucky]

Often see this type weather many time middle to late february any snow we will have will be wet type, mostly sticking to cars overnight seen hrs on wet snow giving a slushy mess.Hopefully we stand a better chance of seeing proper snow in showery conditions after front passes though tuesday wednesday especially overnight allowing temps to drop.At the momement temps seem to be slightly on the wrong side to produce frontal day time snow.

[charlton north-downs]

Can you believe the heaviest snow this winter although we had 7ins in January it was fine .4cms and still coming down.

[Supacell]

Snow cover has all but melted this morning, it feels a little less cold too.

I am looking forward to next week. Being at nearly 1000ft has got to help with being on the snowy side of marginal. Still, if it doesnt happen and we just cold rain then I still have the memories of early January.

I'm so glad I moved from Derby to here. Much better for snow me thinks

[Snowgrowler]

It does look as though we are going to have a general lack of snow Tuesday, as a couple of people have said the upper air just isn't cold enough.

It is interesting I think that FI is slowly having the SW systems pushed further ahead in time with each subsequent run. Looks like it could be quite cold for some time to come?

Quite cold yes, but lacking in excitement whatever your weather preference is!

[gloria lestafan]

Meto go with a heavy snow warning for tuesday.

[Weathizard]

Meto go with a heavy snow warning for tuesday.

How come that warning is not in place for Eastern/South eastern England?

Met office warnings

[MKN]

There is a moderate risk of locally heavy snow falling in parts of the UK at times on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to snow at times as it spreads eastwards with up to 5 cm accumulations in places and possibly 10 cm over hills.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[SP1986]

There is a moderate risk of locally heavy snow falling in parts of the UK at times on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to snow at times as it spreads eastwards with up to 5 cm accumulations in places and possibly 10 cm over hills.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

The models current summisation generally goes against this, although things can change and I don't place too much faith in the calculation of dewpoint etc anyway on the models, but looking at the pattern it is extremely borderline.

Either they're going to be right, to their relief or very wrong.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite cold yes, but lacking in excitement whatever your weather preference is!

Not sure about that- if the low hangs around Britain for a while, once the frontal systems clear it will be cold, bright and showery, and while homegrown convection is still relatively limited this early in the year, it can still happen. Could be quite an interesting spell for "convection lovers" with some shafts of hail, sleet and snow about, though it doesn't look like there will be widespread lasting accumulations at low levels.

[VillagePlank]

There is a moderate risk of locally heavy snow falling in parts of the UK at times on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to snow at times as it spreads eastwards with up to 5 cm accumulations in places and possibly 10 cm over hills.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

It will be a classic modern times battleground with large uncertainties about the winners and losers both in terms of geography, and of precipitation type. One that is certainly not worth calling at this time.

However, that said, I would expect some of those warnings to go orange closer to the time as the atmospheric state becomes better known.

[gearbox1001]

It will be a classic modern times battleground with large uncertainties about the winners and losers both in terms of geography, and of precipitation type. One that is certainly not worth calling at this time.

However, that said, I would expect some of those warnings to go orange closer to the time as the atmospheric state becomes better known.

I think this warning is perfectly worded well for what we have coming. Rain which might turn to snow for some and is heading south so most of the United Kingdom is on a warning. They win either way as if it rains they claimed that and if it snows well they claimed that too.

I wish my job was so cut and dry, well today folks your computer might crash, burn, work perfectly fine, or flash and beep............ im sure i would be right every time

[damianslaw]

I think no-one can call early next week at this stage, it is a very very tricky situation to call, an unusual set up which the models will struggle to get to grips with until the low is upon us, probably not until late Sunday will it be clear where the low is likely to track and where the front will move, it could easily stall, develop waves on it..

I think the Met Office are perhaps right in putting up an advisory as a note of caution. There is very high potential for a significant snow event in some places..

[Snowyowl9]

Temperatures have been very disapointing today for how cold the upper air flow is.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs062.gif

2.3c now and cloudy but 5.6c max short while but sunny and cloud,it is sheltered here from the wind tho.

A N/NE-ly if this was a SE-ly it would be colder.

[snowray]

Temperatures have been very disapointing today for how cold the upper air flow is.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs062.gif

2.3c now and cloudy but 5.6c max short while but sunny and cloud,it is sheltered here from the wind tho.

A N/NE-ly if this was a SE-ly it would be colder.

I agree.

If you look at todays charts one would expect snow showers but away from high ground, about 150m, its all been rain or sleet.

People on here say that before Christmas is too Early for a decent Easterly, wait til February, then come Feb everyone says the sun is too strong for a decent cold pool to establish itself!!

Personally I think it can snow any time from October to April in the UK as we have often seen, but everything has to be just right, but usually things just turn out just wrong, only just mind....

Edited February 12, 2010 by snowray

[Snowyowl9]

I agree.

If you look at todays charts one would expect snow showers but away from high ground, about 150m, its all been rain or sleet.

People on here say that before Christmas is too Early for a decent Easterly, wait til February, then come Feb everyone says the sun is too strong for a decent cold pool to establish itself!!

Personally I think it can snow any time from October to April in the UK as we have often seen, but everything has to be just right, but usually things just turn out just wrong, only just mind....

I find a NE wind can turn out like this if it was east/NE to S/SE off the continent then it would be much colder,the north sea must play a big part this week with the surface flow,and the wind has been blowing all week,different to back in January it was much lighter.

NW wind can be colder and more productive for snow.