Cold Spell Discussion

[TEITS]

Agreed TEITS.

And when will people ever learn that these spells 'develop' over a period of time. By this time next week even i could be snowed in, early 80s style

What I find frustrating is how some are making similiar comments prior to our last cold spell. When it comes to snowfall you will always find surprise snowfall occuring. Even the NAE model is subject to changes.

The cold spell during Jan is such a good example. The countryfile forecast/Met O warnings had my area targetted for the heaviest snowfalls. Yet the reality was parts of SW/NW England witnessed more snow than I did!!

Synoptically this couldn't really be any better. We have the intial E,ly that could be followed by the HP moving to Greenland. This then opens all sorts of possibilities ranging from troughs moving S or LP systems tracking to the S of the UK.

[damianslaw]

A long draw of air from the arctic as late as early March can produce uppers close to -12 over much of Scotland and the range of -8 - 10 in N England. As we get past mid Feb the best synoptics for producing very cold uppers switches away from an easterly to a northerly, something which is very likely to happen with the synoptics this year - perfect for a sustained very cold spell.

[Eugene]

Anybody else tired of the cold is no use without snow comments?

Ludicrous statement as you need cold locked in place first for the chance for long lasting snow, no chance of that with the atlantic in charge and snow gone before you know it.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Eugene

[steve1971]

hi looks like being a real cold and dry week coming up with temps hardly above frezing as we get towards mid week not to much in the way of any wide spread snow this week hope it will last a while longer than a week.very dry and cold perfect weather....

[disco-barry]

February is good for snow, 1ft last february here and lots of others got a v good covering, some folks have short term memories.

[La Bise]

Anybody else tired of the cold is no use without snow comments?

Ludicrous statement as you need cold locked in place first for the chance for long lasting snow, no chance of that with the atlantic in charge and snow gone before you know it.

Sign me up Eugene...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I never think february is as good, yes snow is possible, but will always thaw quicker as sun is higher, days longer, and just generally not as cold month as Dec-Jan, of course could be different at high levels

I would say if Jan 1-14th synoptics happened in February it would be slightly less cold with much more thaw at low levels, had lots of snow feb 05, but big thaws inbetween showers, with no mild air in place

even my snow last sunday thawed very quickly on 31st January, and no mild air moved in

my area and id say best time for snow (coldest time) 15th Dec - 15th Jan, snow wont thaw during those dates unless mild air from the atlantic moves in

this coming 'cold spell' could be a surprise to many low lying areas, bbc give me 6°C for Tuesday off a cold airstream, and 4C on tue-thur. Mid dec to mid Jan would be way colder

[ScotchEgg78]

Anyone else come to this forum now looking for a sign of the cold breaking down and warmer weather ?

I never thought i would see the day I felt like this, but now I want to play golf in warmer weather, i want to turn the heating down in the office to save $$!

Add into this simply been fed up of been cold!

Please please, big game of golf next sat in bham, let there be no snow on the ground ....

[damianslaw]

I never think february is as good, yes snow is possible, but will always thaw quicker as sun is higher, days longer, and just generally not as cold month as Dec-Jan, of course could be different at high levels

I would say if Jan 1-14th synoptics happened in February it would be slightly less cold with much more thaw at low levels, had lots of snow feb 05, but big thaws inbetween showers, with no mild air in place

even my snow last sunday thawed very quickly on 31st January, and no mild air moved in

my area and id say best time for snow (coldest time) 15th Dec - 15th Jan, snow wont thaw during those dates unless mild air from the atlantic moves in

this coming 'cold spell' could be a surprise to many low lying areas, bbc give me 6°C for Tuesday off a cold airstream, and 4C on tue-thur. Mid dec to mid Jan would be way colder

Granted the sun does have a bit of oomph to it as you head through Feb and can easily remove an inch of snow cover in the space of a few minutes. However, moderate cover will still stick under the strenghtening Feb sun, it isn't that warm still.., I remember Sunderland keeping a 4 inch cover during the first few days of March 2004 even..

To say that we cannot see cold on the scale of what we get during mid dec-mid Jan is not true. On average mid jan-mid Feb is the coldest period of the year by a long chalk. Nightime minima is often at its lowest during this period. Examples of very cold maxima in Feb are Feb 1986 when even at the close of the month places were sub-zero, more recently Feb 1994, Feb 1996, Feb 2001 have brought sub-zero maxima, and remember last feb very cold first half.

[egret]

Granted the sun does have a bit of oomph to it as you head through Feb and can easily remove an inch of snow cover in the space of a few minutes. However, moderate cover will still stick under the strenghtening Feb sun, it isn't that warm still.., I remember Sunderland keeping a 4 inch cover during the first few days of March 2004 even..

To say that we cannot see cold on the scale of what we get during mid dec-mid Jan is not true. On average mid jan-mid Feb is the coldest period of the year by a long chalk. Nightime minima is often at its lowest during this period. Examples of very cold maxima in Feb are Feb 1986 when even at the close of the month places were sub-zero, more recently Feb 1994, Feb 1996, Feb 2001 have brought sub-zero maxima, and remember last feb very cold first half.

Importantly the sea is now approaching its coldest meaning that chances of snow (as opposed to sleet) are improved in the SW should we get air moving in from the Channel. Here on the S Coast we could do with the Atlantic/Channel lows moving just a shade further South than they did in the last cold spell. At present the main action seems to be from N&E, but I would expect this to change if the cold lasts more than a week. Time will tell!

[Liam J]

yet again winter 09/10 is going to give us yet another cold shot, with snow and frost although looking quite cloudy atm with light sleet/snow outbreaks for the next few days towards the east with a few heavier showers likely and moving inland.

with even colder air excpected after midweek and i suspect many areas seeing accumulating snow yet again, im quite surprised in the model thread people seem to be worrying about the sun strength and that it cannot be as cold now its february, this is normally our coldest month and snowiest yes the sun is getting stronger but it is still weak and should you be lucky enough to get snow cover this week im sure it will not melt to fast unless its only a dusting.

late march/april is the time to worry about sun melting the snow rapidly, and not in mid winter.

would love this set up, 1990's winter-

Edited February 7, 2010 by james12

[Neilsouth]

Snow here covering everything , significant snow thur/fri bbc news

[Rich44]

Been snowing here all morning, not settling yet but it's only a matter of time surely....

[Iceni]

Snowing lightly here too… bodes well for later on in the week.

[Slinky]

Only sleet here still fingers crossed for later in week, might beat my 2cms yet

[Rich44]

Wow well impressed been hammering it down all morning here everything now turning white, good base for round two, wasn't expecting this much today

[icy toes]

Been snowing pretty much constantly in Cambridge since 8am. Not settling though. Varies from small snow grains to big wet flakes

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Snow showers on and off this morning in Consett Co.Durham leaving a dusting on all surfaces.

[D KARLSON]

Snow showers on and off this morning in Consett Co.Durham leaving a dusting on all surfaces.

as expected and a covering here in north yorks, its strange in these situations people will watch BEEB forecasts to confirm how much snow there will be for their area and find the forecast does not even mention precipitation save for more organised showers in the south east as was the case today .

The problem is the BEEB does not have the time to mention snow showers that are light down the eastern side and concentrates on the main weather events ,but if you zoom in on the east coast the snow showers are there and when given uplift by hills even low hills they produce surprising amounts of snow and this will be the case for the next few days with anything from a few cms to 10 cms quite likely certainly locally.

The south east is anoother matter ,with the heavier precipitation forecast any uplift here will produce some quite heavy falls even above 300 feet or so ,and Kent will bare the brunt basiclly but not solely due to its height,15 cms is certainly poossible as the showers hit the weald of Kent.

So to sum up although intense convection is not forecast ,other factor come into play especially on a local level and some places could be in for a very wintery spell of weather some, fun and games to come for a few lucky ones

Edited February 8, 2010 by D KARLSON

[weatherobsuk]

How the British Weather is a tease. Went to watch a local football game in 2x layers (anticipating the cold), yet we was one of the few in the UK on Saturday lucky enough to see a significant break in the cloud. I tell you the layers were soon coming off and it was quite warm in the February Sun.

Now to think a S.W.E is again knocking on our doors with Easterly pooling coming off the Continent for another week or two at least.

[Thunder Snow]

I don't think its going to be as cold as i first thought, and i think most of the heaviest snow is going to be for the EAST

[moogyboobles]

Anyone got any insight into how things might be in Chelmsford on Wednesday. My last driving test was cancelled by snow and I am worrying it'll happen again now!

Bittersweet...I love snow, but I can't wait to drive!

[MisfitDog3]

Not sure about next week and personally think it's way too early to say anything specific even on next weekend just yet. Saying that, I reckon the snow at the end of the week looks like it may be disruptive a lot further west than just Kent which the Met Office was still focusing on this morning from a study of the charts.

[craig1973]

I never think february is as good, yes snow is possible, but will always thaw quicker as sun is higher, days longer, and just generally not as cold month as Dec-Jan, of course could be different at high levels

I would say if Jan 1-14th synoptics happened in February it would be slightly less cold with much more thaw at low levels, had lots of snow feb 05, but big thaws inbetween showers, with no mild air in place

even my snow last sunday thawed very quickly on 31st January, and no mild air moved in

my area and id say best time for snow (coldest time) 15th Dec - 15th Jan, snow wont thaw during those dates unless mild air from the atlantic moves in

this coming 'cold spell' could be a surprise to many low lying areas, bbc give me 6°C for Tuesday off a cold airstream, and 4C on tue-thur. Mid dec to mid Jan would be way colder

not here in north east of england ,one of the best snows i remember is feb 91 ,which had no thaw during the day, and the snow stayed on the ground for two weeks.

[Lewis]

Yes, this aspect of the shower activity has surprised me this early in the month, but I've known it happen in northerly/north-easterly regimes in February before, e.g. 27/28 February 1993, 23/24 February 2001, 25-27 February 2004, 13 February 2005. The sun is getting higher and stronger which means not only higher daytime temps but also more convection.

Good point totally agree with you mate.

Here in Hull i hit 6c about 20 mins ago, 5 mins later a shower hit, temp dropped to 3.1c, thats almost a 3c drop! wow