Cold Spell Discussion

[swfc]

Very confused state of affairs at the moment.Shortwaves ete and the atlantic depp keeping this very fluid.Earlier post mentioned the beeb going for colder next week/latest forecast was milder weekend but no mention beyond that suprisingly.??? :lol:

[Intrepid]

Heavy rain here and 3.5c :lol:

[Richard Lake]

LOW CONFIDENCE! for next week!!!! :lol:

............Anyway I think personally a cold spell will come our way and within the next 48 hours things are going to become more certain.

He said the second half of next week which is in the 7-11 day frame, so I would have to agree with Ian. Forecasting weather beyond 7 days is always difficult - at best you can form an opinion of what may lay ahead; affectionally on N-W this is called the the trend.

We shall have to wait and see what will transpire over the next couple of days, but today's temperature is not as high as what was being shown on the tv forecasts last night. I remain unconvinced that temperatures will rise too much over the coming days - I certainly wouldn't call temperatures of 4-6c in February as mild, average yes, cold no, why people have to use the word Mild instead of the word Average I will never know. Even TV forecasters use the word far too much, what is wrong with Average?

Current temp: 2C ... and thats a coastal temperature.

Edited February 3, 2010 by rikki

[Storm Animal]

1st snowflakes falling here now.......temp dipped to 1.3oC, so looking promising for later when the heavier stuff moves in ;o)

[La Bise]

Snowing here...

[John London]

I'm playing in a cup match this Sunday so thankfully it looks like being much warmer than of late. Another benefit to warmer temperatures is I might be able to put the van away and get the RX7 out to play with. Great car, but totally s--t at gripping the road even in the dry let alone with a bit of frost.

Edited February 3, 2010 by John London

[Richard Lake]

Don't bank on them warm temperatures materialising John. :ph34r:

[Mark Bayley]

Snowing heavy here, currently a dusting

[Liam J]

moderate snow falling now, starting to settle temp 0.5c DP -1c the band may stall/weaken as it hit the high ground in northern england

yet another day with snow falling winter 09/10

Edited February 3, 2010 by james12

[k19]

As i type it is snowing moderately here, with a dusting so far, is it possible this will stay as snow instead of turning to rain?

[La Bise]

It has not stopped for 2 hours and it's all white now, lovely!

[glasgow-guy]

currently snowing in Glasgow pretty heavy ATM

[k19]

can anyone post current radar pic?

[Ben_Cambs]

can anyone post current radar pic?

Well I dont have the radar pics but I can give you this link:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[The PIT]

yes that is a rare one Pit-in 40 years in Met I encountered it twice!

Just measured a measly 2.2mm of rain. Weston parks automatic station was frozen up as well I hear.

[Snowyowl9]

Daytime temp only reached 1.9c but as expected it couldn`t snow anymore as uppers are above 0c had some cold rain instead that wind is very raw from the south 2.5c now though.

I`m glad these storms aren`t heading this way look very severe glad the jet is heading way south.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

The famous date february the 8th eh this is an absolute corker.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

25 years aniversary to the exact date with heavy snow and blizzards that won`t be topped.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850208.gif

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Delta76]

Closing in on 2 inch of snow down here on the hills East of Rotherham ( Wickersley )

[stumathers]

Moderate snow since 3.30 though has turned sleety now as it fizzles out. Average depth is 4cm.

[Eugene]

Cold air winds againBut mild air is tryingIssued: 0530hrs Wednesday 3rd February 2009

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Mild air tries to spread to all parts, but cold air winds through

Good morning, It's easy to look at model output and follow it, sheep-like, without questioning its proposals. However, the sign of a good forecaster is the ability to questions the models and, when necessary, to question their conclusions. Often, the model will be revealing subtle signals, highlighting that the weather forecast may not be developing as one might first think.

And that is the situation today and over the coming days. I say this because a glance at the charts would indicate that the weather turns much milder and more unsettled with any cold weather being squeezed away to the east. However, closer study reveals that cold air does not really clear from Scotland and northern England over the coming days. Despite trying their very best, Atlantic fronts just do not get milder air successfully across all of the country.

And this is why I think the emphasis for the coming days will be on cold weather. Today is an example where rain is spreading from the west, but as it reaches colder ground through Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England, the north Midlands and high ground of southern England it will be turning increasingly to snow. Then, despite spreading further north, the occluding process of the front means that the warm air gets lifted aloft, but does not reach the surface and so the north stays cold.

Very wise words indeed from weatheronline, especially the paragraph i put in bold, something some model watchers should take note of.

[Peter Henderson]

Very wise words indeed from weatheronline, especially the paragraph i put in bold, something some model watchers should take note of.

Have you noticed their forcast for the week ahead ? They're now aggreeing with the BBC's announcement on Monday that there will be another big freeze next week with the cold weather winning out. The UKMO are still hedging their bets though, and being somewhat cautious.

[damianslaw]

Daytime temp only reached 1.9c but as expected it couldn`t snow anymore as uppers are above 0c had some cold rain instead that wind is very raw from the south 2.5c now though.

I`m glad these storms aren`t heading this way look very severe glad the jet is heading way south.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

The famous date february the 8th eh this is an absolute corker.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

25 years aniversary to the exact date with heavy snow and blizzards that won`t be topped.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850208.gif

Very similiar synoptics evolving next week as what occured in 1985. Feb 14th 1985 brought severe conditions to many spots with blizzard conditions..

[Snowyowl9]

Very similiar synoptics evolving next week as what occured in 1985. Feb 14th 1985 brought severe conditions to many spots with blizzard conditions..

The 8th and 9th the heavy snow and then blizzards came as the winds were gale force for the most part for a days after.

My favouite weather event of all time :wub: it lasting almost 2 weeks with bitter east/SE winds and drifting all through.

As you can see the upper air was a sharp gradient,with a bitter undercut east wind.

This day actually started of frozen,it didn`t get above freezing that day and there was freezing wet graupel/sleet first thing which soon turned to snow and drifting on contact on frozen ground which was iced over on the ground always remember that.

Wind started off SE and strong,and went around to the east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00219850208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850209.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00219850209.gif

The wind this time won`t be nothing like that.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[swfc]

Given we never really loose the cold air once or if it arrives then i guess we shoudnt complain.We have been spoilt this winter i guess so lets not be expecting extreme conditions all the time.

[snowdrifter]

LOL --- That post is misguided- light wintry PPN-

try heavy Snow showers moving westwards - This run favours the NE, East & all of the South-

In terms of this evolution is there a month that can compare- yes Jan 1985

S

I can rememember living in Birkenhead on the Wirral that January, with v heavy snow falling. Can't remember the actual date, but if Jan 85 is at least partially comparable, then it certainly isn't just the east that could do well snow-wise.

Edited February 3, 2010 by snowdrifter

[snow raven]

The GWO is a function of relative angular momentum:

http://www.esrl.noaa...m.sig.90day.gif

(which is governing the amplitude)

and tendency in relative angular momentum:

http://www.esrl.noaa...d.sig.90day.gif

(lateral movement)

Tropical wave analysis suggests that the westerly wind burst has another few days left in it (potential velocity potential anomaly 200 hPa field):

http://www.esrl.noaa...d.sig.90day.gif

Whilst analysis of the December evolution the GWO suggests around 10 days allowing for a greater amplitude event this time round:

http://www.esrl.noaa...gcm/gwo_90d.gif

Solid 8-14 day anomaly pattern forecast from the CPC tonight:

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

Battleground UK and no ridge over Iberia.

What does that mean in layman terms?