Cold Spell Discussion

[ribster]

Well the country file forecast went for temps recovering to nearer normal, but he doubted it would last for long.

Went out for a walk with the dog around 10am, was absolutely perishing, was still below freezing and the wind was stinging!

[keithlucky]

I have never seen the met so brave to announce around the 8 of feb cold to return, must be the beast from the east making an apperance !

[Stevetynant]

I have never seen the met so brave to announce around the 8 of feb cold to return, must be the beast from the east making an apperance !

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

This is on the Met Office website- they don't look so brave there ?

[John London]

I was wondering if we could have a thread called "Warm Spell Discussion" just to keep a balance. I played football this morning on a frozen pitch covered in snow, for some reason our park pitch doesn't have under soil heating. Don't want to sound like a weakling but the sooner it warms up the better for me, sliding tackles on a rock hard pitch are a nightmare.

[keithlucky]

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

This is on the Met Office website- they don't look so brave there ?

That was issued at 12 since then they said around 8th feb turning cold on latest forecaste on news 24.

Edited January 31, 2010 by keithlucky

[Mondy]

I was wondering if we could have a thread called "Warm Spell Discussion" just to keep a balance. I played football this morning on a frozen pitch covered in snow, for some reason our park pitch doesn't have under soil heating. Don't want to sound like a weakling but the sooner it warms up the better for me, sliding tackles on a rock hard pitch are a nightmare.

I did this as a laugh a few weeks ago. Didn't go down well and was deleted/removed. Guess humour and thoughtlessness don't mix too well on the i/net or here.

[Stevetynant]

Ah I see- thanks Keith

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that anything more than about 3 days in advance is educated guess work and supercomputers or not Nature is wholly uncooperative and refuses to conform to Met Office schedules.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I did this as a laugh a few weeks ago. Didn't go down well and was deleted/removed. Guess humour and thoughtlessness don't mix too well on the i/net or here.

Keep rocking the boat Mondy! A mid-July 'cool and wet spell' discussion should also be added, not to mention an 'autumnal drizzle' discussion!

[Southender]

BBC Monthly Outlook. WOW!!

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010

Bitter cold returning

High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.

Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010

Staying very cold

There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

Edited February 1, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[picog]

BBC Monthly Outlook. WOW!!

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010

Bitter cold returning

High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.

Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010

Staying very cold

There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

If precipitation amounts are normal, and the temperature forecast is correct, then we could be headed for a lot of snow!

Edited February 1, 2010 by picog

[SP1986]

If I had to choose between a trophy, and egg.. then egg is definitely what I would choose based on the forecast above

[Iceni]

If precipitation amounts are normal, and the temperature forecast is correct, then we could be headed for a lot of snow!

Those slugs are still getting well- err… slugged.

Broke the ice on the pond this morning and it was nearly 2" thick. A couple of years ago, I'd be going over the top on here about it. This winter's been wonderful, but what I really don't want to happen for the sake of my garden is a warm week which gets all the plants growing only to have their new growth zapped by another deep freeze — much better to have a gradual warm up in March/April.

[stephenjlynch]

For me, this winter has been great so far.

I've had falling snow every day since Friday, and some hefty soft hail / snow showers which has left a few cm's each day.

Personally, I'd be happier with a deep cold north-westerly than an easterly

[Peter Henderson]

Indeed, and if the UKMO picks up on something then I will be more interested!

There seems to be something of a discrepency between the BBC and the met office today. The UKMO's long range forcast for Feb 6th to Feb 15th:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.

Contrast the above with the following from the BBC this morning:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/

Summary

Briefly milder then very, very cold

As January draws to a close, it looks as if December and January have been the coldest since the winter of 1981/1982 for the whole of the UK. In Scotland it will probably be the coldest December and January since records began, way back in 1914. It looks like February will do nothing to bring the average temperature up a bit, in fact quite the opposite.

Monday 1 February 2010 to Sunday 7 February 2010

Eventually turning milder

It will take until about Wednesday for the whole of the UK to get back into the milder westerly airstream from the Atlantic. Before then it does turn briefly milder in Scotland with some rain and hill snow, but we're soon back into the colder northerly airstream. Further south it will be a little milder and wetter through Monday night into Tuesday. The second half of the week and into the weekend sees west or southwesterly winds across the UK. With that comes milder conditions, but also bands of rain in association with low pressure systems. During Wednesday, as the transition happens, there could be some significant snow from the Midlands northwards.

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010

Bitter cold returning

High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.

Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010

Staying very cold

There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

I don't know about everyone else but two completely different long range forcasts. I always thought the Beeb sourced their data from the UKMO ? Which one is correct ? Which one do we believe ? Unusual for the BBC to stick it's neck out like this, or is the UKMO just being overly cautious ?

Edited February 1, 2010 by Peter Henderson

[Polar Front]

Thank god I put a CET of 2.15 for Feb! I bet everyone will be going back to adjust their estimate for Feb downwards now.

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know about everyone else but two completely different long range forcasts. I always thought the Beeb sourced their data from the UKMO ? Which one is correct ? Which one do we believe ? Unusual for the BBC to stick it's neck out like this, or is the UKMO just being overly cautious ?

None's sticking their necks out. You're reading to much into it. It's a low rate forecast that nobody reads and has low outcome accuracy.

[frozencamel]

Evening folks..

I last logged on a few days ago and it all seemed doom and gloom with milder conditions for the medium range.

Just watched the East Midlands BBC weather and they advised that after the weekend it will be turning much colder with an extended cold spell.

Sticking their necks out there aren't they?

**sorry just seen previous post..

Edited February 1, 2010 by frozencamel

[NorthantsSnow]

Just heard on CNN about the miserable winter Vancouver is having, which may threaten events at the upcoming Winter Olympics. El Nino is bringing very mild conditions for that part of the world which look set to persist through February. So far it has not snowed once in 2010, and any precipitation in Feb is likely to be of rain. Perhaps more surprising the temperature has only dropped below freezing once, when on average this occurs on 46 days of the year in that part of the world.

[Optimus Prime]

Just heard on CNN about the miserable winter Vancouver is having, which may threaten events at the upcoming Winter Olympics. El Nino is bringing very mild conditions for that part of the world which look set to persist through February. So far it has not snowed once in 2010, and any precipitation in Feb is likely to be of rain. Perhaps more surprising the temperature has only dropped below freezing once, when on average this occurs on 46 days of the year in that part of the world.

Vancouver a very small city on the far South-westrn side of Canada. Due to a displacement of high pressure from the MID US stretching upto Anchorage a mild southerly flow has been dominating that small part of the country.

Most of North American into much of Canada has been rather cold of late.

Funny how the Copenhagen freeze has halted the global warming summet just as the heatwave may put a stop to the games in Canada.

Natures obviously fed up with pointless humans doing these pointless things lol.

[Eugene]

These are normally useless but they did predict lots of blocking this winter so maybe not so useless afterall, looks like a very cold Feb and with that block to our northeast you can't write that off atm.

Not that great for our spring and summer prospects it must be said, it has every month upto July as below average in southern UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

[Liam J]

pretty low temps around that band of ppn over scotland and a few locations are reporting snow falling, 5.3c here expecting that to drop as the cold air filters south once more later.

looks like snow on wednesday as a front pushes into the cold air.

[penicuikblizz]

pretty low temps around that band of ppn over scotland and a few locations are reporting snow falling, 5.3c here expecting that to drop as the cold air filters south once more later.

looks like snow on wednesday as a front pushes into the cold air.

Its been snowing here since 5am this morning 2inches on ground and still snowing, snow lying in South Edinburgh looking at the traffic cams

[Liam J]

Its been snowing here since 5am this morning 2inches on ground and still snowing, snow lying in South Edinburgh looking at the traffic cams

send it down here!! tomorrow looking good for snow here as mentioned on a few weather sites, with some heavy snow likely met o going for 5cm low ground and more higher up, but as with snow its marginal the slightest change can mean rain

[MR EXTREMES]

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 16 Feb 2010:

Initially there is likely to be an area of locally heavy rain and hill snow across western areas and this is expected to edge slowly and erratically eastwards during the first part of the new week, the rain and snow perhaps fizzling out before it reaches the east and southeast. From the early part of the first week onwards there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast but it looks likely that the general trend will be for unsettled, rather cold conditions. We can expect mostly large amounts of cloud and occasional rain, turning to sleet and snow at times, with the sleet and snow risk probably highest in northern, eastern and central areas. The temperature is likely to be either cold or rather cold.

Updated: 1204 on Tue 2 Feb 2010

they seem very sketchy about how far the alantic gets i think this update sums it up possible that cold could return from the east.

[yamkin]

It looks like the MetO are going along with their UKMO models as the UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 16 Feb 2010 is as follows

Initially there is likely to be an area of locally heavy rain and hill snow across western areas and this is expected to edge slowly and erratically eastwards during the first part of the new week, the rain and snow perhaps fizzling out before it reaches the east and southeast. From the early part of the first week onwards there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast but it looks likely that the general trend will be for unsettled, rather cold conditions. We can expect mostly large amounts of cloud and occasional rain, turning to sleet and snow at times, with the sleet and snow risk probably highest in northern, eastern and central areas. The temperature is likely to be either cold or rather cold.

Updated: 1204 on Tue 2 Feb 2010