Cold Spell Discussion

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi,

I've crossposted this here as I'm hoping for some expert opinion on this and boy, its gone mad in the MO discussion

Hello,

I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming.

I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on.

What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe.

Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way Resized to 28% (was 48 x 27) - Click image to enlarge

Cheers

STORMBOY

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't know about the upcoming evolution to a possible easterly (will be getting a forecast for February together this weekend, so should firm up on some educated guesses by Sunday). But with the band of organised shower activity in the North Sea aligned at more of a NW-SE slant than the wind direction it is looking good for those showers coming back onshore in the Norwich area and also for Tyneside.

The last three GFS runs have hinted at this, so if it comes off, a good call by GFS Precipitation.

[Snowyowl9]

Had 2 snow showers but each time the moon was partly out,got a dusting on the patio now and it`s been blowing in mimi drifts as the wind picked up all very dry to settle on for a change with this NW-ly wind -0.7c

[SNOW-MAN2006]

6 inches here off last nights showers, took everyone by total suprise! Temps hitting 2 degrees today so i do expect very little thaw...

Edited January 30, 2010 by SNOW-MAN2006

[mac_]

Met Office forecast for here tonight was for rain with hill snow. Here on the coast weve had no rain, only heavy snow showers off and on. The temps have been slightly too high for much of it to settle so the roads are clear but there is a covering on pavements and grass. Bit strange that this was forecast as rain when all the showers during the day here have been of either hail or light snow, but maybe there was more to it that I dont know about!

Cant understand why Met O haven't issued a weather warning. We've had numerous heavy snow showers that are accumulating here in Antrim , I imagine conditions must be much worse over the higher ground.

[Eugene]

Well as we come towards the end of January it looks like January 2010 will be the coldest January since 1987 in Coventry :blink: :o :o :o

And the coldest December/January period there since 1979 :o :o :o :o

Gobsmacking really and how can anybody moan about the weather after incredible stats like that.

[londonsnow]

interesting little streamer through the far sw of cymru and on to cornwall today.

[Cymro]

interesting little streamer through the far sw of cymru and on to cornwall today.

Yes Tenby an area notable for never recieving snow and cold tempreatures has got a snow covered beach some 2 inches apparently.

[kippure]

Some pictures of snow in the wicklow mountains today

http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/weather-pictures/kippure-gates-towards-sallys-gap-30-01-10/msg19764/?topicseen#msg19764

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

I did not expect to see any snow this weekend as I am in the Charente near the coast in SW France, but heading in land to take part in a treasure hunt we came across heavy snow showers of mainly wet snow so it did not settle, never the less it was nice to see. Then the treasure hunt was called off because of the snow!! Welcome to the temperate climate of the Charente!

Cheers

FC

[Yeti]

We have a covering here in Cambridge atm after a little fall last night... a nice surprise, as I wasn't expecting anything.

Looks like that's it for showers in the E though now except the extreme E of E Anglia.

[ZONE 51]

3pm sat

[Alex95]

The amazing this is that despite a few inches of snow this northerly feels fairly insignificant! In recent years this would probably have been the highlight of the entire winter, 7cm with clear skies and only a thaw on southerly facing roofs and bushes.

[John London]

Snowing here now, and very dark.

[Angleseylad]

Heavy graupel shower recently

[Costa Del Fal]

Ive seen the UKMO and the ECM and Ahh no winter is over...

...NO it isnt! Im finding some of the posts in the Model discussion thread ridiculous. One or two runs have showed mild weather and its all over. Geez. There is plenty of potential out there.

Gets on my nerves how people are so quick to favour mild drab on one or two runs!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ive seen the UKMO and the ECM and Ahh no winter is over...

...NO it isnt! Im finding some of the posts in the Model discussion thread ridiculous. One or two runs have showed mild weather and its all over. Geez. There is plenty of potential out there.

Gets on my nerves how people are so quick to favour mild drab on one or two runs!

yeah but its a strong possibility, ukmo has shown this mild for the last 5-6 runs, ecmwf latest is very mild, GFS though shown the FI easterly for days, but now its euros v gfs, the most likely thing on the 00Z's is for the gfs to go with the euros

wont mean winter is over but ecm and ukmo show a very mild 1st half of feb, but theres always March

[Costa Del Fal]

yeah but its a strong possibility, ukmo has shown this mild for the last 5-6 runs, ecmwf latest is very mild, GFS though shown the FI easterly for days, but now its euros v gfs, the most likely thing on the 00Z's is for the gfs to go with the euros

wont mean winter is over but ecm and ukmo show a very mild 1st half of feb, but theres always March

Indeed, maybe this Easterly wont happen but March often still brings snow and sometimes April if were lucky just like Easter 2008.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed, maybe this Easterly wont happen but March often still brings snow and sometimes April if were lucky just like Easter 2007.

2008 not 07, but yeah white easter sunday 23 March, then snow on 6th April, although all gone by midday as expected for time of year, from 2 weekend northerlies

I have always insisted northerlies 95% of the time arrive at weekends (or fridays) and often topple on monday

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Mark Bayley]

Ive seen the UKMO and the ECM and Ahh no winter is over...

...NO it isnt! Im finding some of the posts in the Model discussion thread ridiculous. One or two runs have showed mild weather and its all over. Geez. There is plenty of potential out there.

Gets on my nerves how people are so quick to favour mild drab on one or two runs!

Would be no fun without it. To be fair the ECM is just as likely as the GFS. Both fit in with the Teleconnection forecast. A -AO and a -NAO (west based was forecast by GP) Some people over react with every model output. On minute its the best spell in years, the next winters over for three or four weeks!

Will be interesting to see the morning runs, It would not surprise me to see the ECM go for an easterly and the GFS to go off of one

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark bayley

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed mark, all models have had their ups and downs! GFS has been very consistent lately and even the UKMO has been a bit. Tbh the ECM has been a bit lost and stuck in the middle!

[Snowstorm1]

I actually for once i know it may sound like straw clutching but the GFS has been the most consistent bringing this easterly must be 14-16runs? ive never such consistency from the model! IF the 18z is still the same my and many other people"s hopes will increase from around 30% to 35%. Then for me in the morning it will be make or break if gfs 00z goes atlantic mush and the other 2 are the same ill preety much give up but if 2 out of 3 of the models tommorrow morning go for the easterly i will be happy if all 3 do i think it may crash the servers!

[Mark Bayley]

I actually for once i know it may sound like straw clutching but the GFS has been the most consistent bringing this easterly must be 14-16runs? ive never such consistency from the model! IF the 18z is still the same my and many other people"s hopes will increase from around 30% to 35%. Then for me in the morning it will be make or break if gfs 00z goes atlantic mush and the other 2 are the same ill preety much give up but if 2 out of 3 of the models tommorrow morning go for the easterly i will be happy if all 3 do i think it may crash the servers!

I remember the GFS parallel was very consistent in December, much better than some of the other models. The GFS does have a habit of leading us up the garden path. Is it leading up the garden path now, who knows.

[Snowstorm1]

I remember the GFS parallel was very consistent in December, much better than some of the other models. The GFS does have a habit of leading us up the garden path. Is it leading up the garden path now, who knows.

For me if the GFS has got this wrong all my faith will go in the model and increase in the ECM and Met office. But if GFS is right then well it will raise my faith in the model.

[Optimus Prime]

ECM reverted to a milder scenario and GFS now on it's own with a cold scenario. GFS has been poor while ECM has been alright.

ECM evolution for me.