Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowstorm1]

ECM reverted to a milder scenario and GFS now on it's own with a cold scenario. GFS has been poor while ECM has been alright.

ECM evolution for me.

How has GFS been poor? its been going with this easterly consistently for 14-16runs yes if it is wrong then you can say that but so far it hasnt backed down so you cant say its been poor recently unless its wrong.

[MR EXTREMES]

well i just read gp thoughts in the model tec thread and theres nothing exciting atleast until middle of feb even the end of feb.

so thats it for me looking forward to summer now happy we had something special and that winter was not blowtourch.

but the even larger teapot trend looks like biting back soon well perhapes not blowtourch average but im now looking forward to spring and summer.

cant be bothered to waist my life on let downs.

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM reverted to a milder scenario and GFS now on it's own with a cold scenario. GFS has been poor while ECM has been alright.

ECM evolution for me.

Actually the ECM 12z has been a mild outlier. Jackone has mentioned this in the model thread.

[MR EXTREMES]

How has GFS been poor? its been going with this easterly consistently for 14-16runs yes if it is wrong then you can say that but so far it hasnt backed down so you cant say its been poor recently unless its wrong.

the gfs is wrong absolutely sure of that now it only has support from the mino models ecm ukmo together well you cant argue with that.

[Optimus Prime]

How has GFS been poor? its been going with this easterly consistently for 14-16runs yes if it is wrong then you can say that but so far it hasnt backed down so you cant say its been poor recently unless its wrong.

Oh dear GFS always gets stuckup for when it shows synoptic people want to see. I'm glad some aren't working for the Metoffice long range forecasts otherwise we would be in a state of emergency.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Enough said.

[Snowstorm1]

the gfs is wrong absolutely sure of that now it only has support from the mino models ecm ukmo together well you cant argue with that.

You can argue with that because GFS has been conisistent.

ECM is one of the mildest runs on the Ecm ensembles.

T48hr is fi atm.

Minor Models support an easterly idea.

So there is plenty of reason to argue with that,

And O.P the GFS has been consistent for 14-16runs so you cant dimiss it and no need for the attitude mate

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Optimus Prime]

Actually the ECM 12z has been a mild outlier.

Was that due to missing data? Haven't heard that one in a while.

[MR EXTREMES]

You can argue with that because GFS has been conisistent.

ECM is one of the mildest runs on the Ecm ensembles.

T48hr is fi atm.

Minor Models support an easterly idea.

So there is plenty of reason to argue with that,

And O.P the GFS has been consistent for 14-16runs so you cant dimiss it and no need for the attitude mate

no attitude from me.

toys out of the pram yes but attitude no.

the gfs is the the only model showing the extreme end of outputs.

and if you think im wrong then tec thread with gp post it does not look good.

edit :ok sorry snowstorm crossed wires lol.

Edited January 30, 2010 by badboy657

[Optimus Prime]

And O.P the GFS has been consistent for 14-16runs so you cant dimiss it and no need for the attitude mate

Oh come on. This is silly. Let everyone know what the data REALLY shows.

The GFS hasn't been consistent. It's gone from one extreme no another without hardly any support. The verification data shows it's the worse out of the top 3 since before the 30th. All the models point towards the continent getting cold while the UK remains milder with the GFS just gives us a stalling front to the SW for a week.

Consistancy doesn't make it right. It just makes it biased against all odds.

"the gfs is the the only model showing the extreme end of outputs.

and if you think im wrong then tec thread with gp post it does not look good."

GFS is always extreme. Be it mild or cold. It's always had that problem since I've been fallowing it since 2003. It does it every time and drags everyone down with it.

ECM has ALWAYS been the most reliable. It's clearly the model to go with and mixed with the UKMO it's by far better then the GFS.

If we get an easterly of the GFS sort I'll be really surprised. Even if we did there's not the huge cold pooling it was pointing at earlier so it wouldn't be your 1987 we were looking at a day or so ago.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Mark Bayley]

Actually the ECM 12z has been a mild outlier. Jackone has mentioned this in the model thread.

The ECM op was towards the top end of the ensembles as well as much above the mean

[Snowstorm1]

Oh come on. This is silly. Let everyone know what the data REALLY shows.

The GFS hasn't been consistent. It's gone from one extreme no another without hardly any support. The verification data shows it's the worse out of the top 3 since before the 30th. All the models point towards the continent getting cold while the UK remains milder with the GFS just gives us a stalling front to the SW for a week.

Consistancy doesn't make it right. It just makes it biased against all odds.

"the gfs is the the only model showing the extreme end of outputs.

and if you think im wrong then tec thread with gp post it does not look good."

GFS is always extreme. Be it mild or cold. It's always had that problem since I've been fallowing it since 2003. It does it every time and drags everyone down with it.

ECM has ALWAYS been the most reliable. It's clearly the model to go with and mixed with the UKMO it's by far better then the GFS.

If we get an easterly of the GFS sort I'll be really surprised. Even if we did there's not the huge cold pooling it was pointing at earlier so it wouldn't be your 1987 we were looking at a day or so ago.

Yes and i have and i admit the ukmo and ecm was terrible but how do you know gfs is wrong? nobody can say anything for you it maybe a 1% chance or less but for you there is a chance for me id say 30% atm with gfs showing it well and ecm ensembles looking good.

Can we quit this silly arguement please.

[Optimus Prime]

How do you know the GFS is right? It rarely ever is in winter which is what stemmed this 'silly' discussion through some slight misleading of information.

[Snowstorm1]

How do you know the GFS is right? It rarely ever is in winter which is what stemmed this 'silly' discussion through some slight misleading of information.

I said it might be right by placing 35% confidence in it mate And i didnt steam this silly discussion all i said was facts anyways 18z off and rolling...

[ukmoose]

What's a little scary is the Europe has been so cold for so long and although we have tapped in to the cold from time to time, the cold has not, in my view, been exceptional in the south given the potential there has been. Exceptional for recent winters definitely yes. Bit would exceptional at other times in the past have delivered a sub zero CET?

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone tonight as far as I can see and February will (more than likely) flatter to deceive once more. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of -ve AO and other favourable synoptics.

Very frustrating for cold lovers, so near yet so far... feels very much like defeat clutched from the jaws of victory once again and it seems like a very damp squib and bitterly disappointing end to a winter that has tried its best to deliver so much.

[Cymro]

What's a little scary is the Europe has been so cold for so long and although we have tapped in to the cold from time to time, the cold has not, in my view, been exceptional in the south given the potential there has been. Exceptional for recent winters definitely yes. Bit would exceptional at other times in the past have delivered a sub zero CET?

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone tonight as far as I can see and February will (more than likely) flatter to deceive once more. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of -ve AO and other favourable synoptics.

Very frustrating for cold lovers, so near yet so far... feels very much like defeat clutched from the jaws of victory once again and it seems like a very damp squib and bitterly disappointing end to a winter that has tried its best to deliver so much.

I really don't get that comment, it has been exceptionally cold for a sustained period of time the coldest in a 114 years isnt it not as in a 50 day period? all good saying there have been colder days colder week periods but its the longevity of this cold thats significant also last febraury delivered the deepest snow since the 80s across most of Britain if you remeber, I recorded 10 days of lying snow then like most areas although its nothing compared to this month but it was still a cold month certainly in the first half so how's it failed to deliver once more? I rekon people are too downhearted by the models that are chopping and turning every whip stich.

[Slinky]

I really don't get that comment, it has been exceptionally cold for a sustained period of time the coldest in a 114 years isnt it not as in a 50 day period? all good saying there have been colder days colder week periods but its the longevity of this cold thats significant also last febraury delivered the deepest snow since the 80s across most of Britain if you remeber, I recorded 10 days of lying snow then like most areas although its nothing compared to this month but it was still a cold month certainly in the first half so how's it failed to deliver once more? I rekon people are too downhearted by the models that are chopping and turning every whip stich.

Your right, its been cold!! For snow here IMBY I have seen 2cms lasting for one day......

[Cymro]

Your right, its been cold!! For snow here IMBY I have seen 2cms lasting for one day......

Your Altitude and close proximity to the sea doesn't really help though does it mate, dont worry though still have a whole 2 months and even further where snow can fall.

[Snowyowl9]

The GFS hasn't been consistent. It's gone from one extreme no another without hardly any support. The verification data shows it's the worse out of the top 3 since before the 30th. All the models point towards the continent getting cold while the UK remains milder with the GFS just gives us a stalling front to the SW for a week.

ECM has ALWAYS been the most reliable.

GFS was the first to pick out the easterly in FI this time so northern blocking is forecast thats what it`ll pick out.

ECM showing everything besides the kitchen sink I found this winter too, immense northern blocking and bitter east winds this week too.

[Peter Henderson]

Well, here in Jordanstown we've about an inch of snow on the grass, and around half an inch on the road although main roads are clear. Not much in Belfast itself but plenty visible up over Divis Mountain. Most of it fell yesterday evening in some quite heavy showers. A slight covering around 8.30 p.m. again.

This winter's been the best for many years. Already 4 snow events, with the one after Christmas lasting for a week along with really cold temperatures (-8 one evening), and we're only at the end of January. Next weekend and beyond certainly looks interesting if the predicted easterly comes off.

[snowingtequila]

every discussion seems so full of nonsense this week very hard to find soemwhere to discuss the cold spell that we are in the middle of. Heavy snow at the moment here brilliant onditions but no one seems to care about this they are just congratulating themselves that the GFS was maybe wrong!

[drgl]

every discussion seems so full of nonsense this week very hard to find soemwhere to discuss the cold spell that we are in the middle of. Heavy snow at the moment here brilliant onditions but no one seems to care about this they are just congratulating themselves that the GFS was maybe wrong!

Some good snow showers here, looks like more coming from Cheshire gap??

[ribster]

Coldest winter in Scotland on record allegedly!

[Eugene]

Several times this winter there were people back slapping over zonal weather on the charts that never materialized, i see the same thing today too, will they ever learn

[Snowyowl9]

Several times this winter there were people back slapping over zonal weather on the charts that never materialized, i see the same thing today too, will they ever learn

You havn`t seen countrytracks forecast then overall.

I`ll admit wednesday still looks interesting with a colder SE-ly flow and snow though.

So we`ll see what happens.

Got down to -2.2c last night today has given a few snow showers one heavy giving a covering 1.3c now.

More snow showers to come,the reason I don`t want this wet now is the ground is now frozen and thats how I like it, a HP would be the ideal thing but even that won`t be happening now.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

What's a little scary is the Europe has been so cold for so long and although we have tapped in to the cold from time to time, the cold has not, in my view, been exceptional in the south given the potential there has been. Exceptional for recent winters definitely yes. Bit would exceptional at other times in the past have delivered a sub zero CET?

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone tonight as far as I can see and February will (more than likely) flatter to deceive once more. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of -ve AO and other favourable synoptics.

Very frustrating for cold lovers, so near yet so far... feels very much like defeat clutched from the jaws of victory once again and it seems like a very damp squib and bitterly disappointing end to a winter that has tried its best to deliver so much.

eh!?