Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Probably 36-48hrs away till the colder air starts to undercut in the east, the flow turns cold for most though on Monday with temps probably between 2-4C. I'd imagine Monday to be one of those rather cloudy dull days with the mins only a little lower then the maxes.

Still quite amazing to think we are looking at yet another cold spell!

[Spurry]

Darren Bett on BBC1 just said "next week will be colder but we're not expecting a return of the harsh weather we had in January"

Edited February 5, 2010 by Spurry

[Winter Monsoon]

Well just been in mdoel thread adn half are saying latest ECM is good and Half saying not, so confusing. Its funny but when the models are in disagreement this forum is in agreement with each other but when the models start to agree this forum goes the other way.<br>

[Thundery wintry showers]

Darren Bett on BBC1 just said "next week will be colder but we're not expecting a return of the harsh weather we had in January" :lol:

If so I agree with him, that sounds about right for next week (not quite the same depth and persistence of cold as we had in January) and if we do get the retrogression towards Greenland later on, by then the sun will be higher and stronger, preventing long runs of sub zero CET days. Having said that, if we get a prolonged spell of blocking from it (an outside bet at this stage, but not totally implausible) it could end up comparably snowy during the latter part of February.

[Spurry]

If so I agree with him, that sounds about right for next week (not quite the same depth and persistence of cold as we had in January) and if we do get the retrogression towards Greenland later on, by then the sun will be higher and stronger, preventing long runs of sub zero CET days. Having said that, if we get a prolonged spell of blocking from it (an outside bet at this stage, but not totally implausible) it could end up comparably snowy during the latter part of February.

Interesting ...how do you see it panning out based on this mornings GFS ?

Thanks

Ian

[PB22]

A very downbeat 5 day forecast on Radio Suffolk with Phil Garner a little while ago, indicating rather cloudy conditions dominating for the next 5 days, with daytime highs of around 4C, and a "small chance of a light dusting of snow". By next weekend turning less cold again. Can't say I totally agree with that forecast, but they are the professionals.

[Spurry]

We've had a really hard frost here which wasn't expected , the ground is white, it dropped to -2.8c last night and is only up to -2c now

[johnholmes]

A very downbeat 5 day forecast on Radio Suffolk with Phil Garner a little while ago, indicating rather cloudy conditions dominating for the next 5 days, with daytime highs of around 4C, and a "small chance of a light dusting of snow". By next weekend turning less cold again. Can't say I totally agree with that forecast, but they are the professionals.

does seem rather downbeat as you say Paul-unlikely to turn less cold according to the models?

[D KARLSON]

does seem rather downbeat as you say Paul-unlikely to turn less cold according to the models?

seems downbeat but i think the BEEB always tend to air on the conservative sideans perhaps its case that for the moment at least, they are not expecting any widespread snowfalls or temps as cold, thats not to say some places wont have significant falls and locally heavy falls in a few places, but then again it depends on the persistence of these ene winds if they persist for long enough snow will accumulate day on day as always the devils in the detail

[dogs32]

Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at British Weather Services, said: “Another week to 10 days of ice and snow is on the cards with temperatures to plummet to as low as -12C in places, along with the return of disruptive snow in many areas.

“The snow will initially affect eastern counties of England and Scotland, but will become more widespread as next week unfolds, with most areas eventually seeing significant falls.

“The country can again expect disruption to its infrastructure, especially travel, with widespread school closures and possible power outages.”

Jonathan Powell, senior weather forecaster with Positive Weather Solutions, said: “Winter will be back with a blast as Arctic air plunges nationwide and it will sink below freezing for most of us as we enter next week.

“When you add in the wind-chill factor it will feel more like -3C during the daytime in the north, -2C in the south, falling away to -12C overnight in the north, with -10C in the south.

“There will be some snow on Tuesday or Wednesday, and then again the following week.

“The cold conditions will continue past mid-month, with the likelihood of further snow, before winter slowly releases its grip before March.”

The bitter winter has already left Britain’s roads with more than a million potholes which will cost at least £100m to repair and motoring groups called on local authorities to be better prepared this time.

Welsh Local Government Association chief executive, Steve Thomas, said although local authorities have started to stock up on salt again, they are not at full capacity.

“We are not just talking about Wales here, but the whole of the UK,” he said.

Edited February 6, 2010 by dogs32

[johnholmes]

maybe its just me but I cannot understand why two of you have copied and pasted the same long post from another source and the total comment from you both is 'nice'

[lukemc]

Hi.

So is it likely that we will see our lowest temperatures since Early January next week then? What sort of temperatures can we expect next week could we expect widespread minima of -4C or -5C and below with some areas down to -10 or below? (of course lower if there is snowcover?) Also what sort of synoptics are required to bring ice days in February I keep hearing that the days are longer and the sun is stronger than January meaning that they are less likely now but I know that February 1986 was a very cold month with a subzero average what made February 1986 such a cold month and are the synoptics being shown now similar in some respects?

Luke

[Thunder Snow]

My latest forecast is now avaliable in my sig.

[damianslaw]

We are back firmly in cold territory again with widespread air frost last night and tonight.. Feb often is very frosty.

Some believe Feb can't deliver the same level of cold as Jan. I completely disagree, early-mid Feb on average sees the coldest weather of the winter. SST's are colder now than in Jan, the arctic is colder, the continent is colder.. early-md Fev is similiar in nature to early-mid August when we usually see our warmest weather of the summer. As the days lengthen the cold strengthens, the onyl difference as we head through Feb is the warming sun, but it is still very weak.

[LomondSnowstorm]

We are back firmly in cold territory again with widespread air frost last night and tonight.. Feb often is very frosty.

Some believe Feb can't deliver the same level of cold as Jan. I completely disagree, early-mid Feb on average sees the coldest weather of the winter. SST's are colder now than in Jan, the arctic is colder, the continent is colder.. early-md Fev is similiar in nature to early-mid August when we usually see our warmest weather of the summer. As the days lengthen the cold strengthens, the onyl difference as we head through Feb is the warming sun, but it is still very weak.

Very true. There is a reason that the February and January CETs are the same, and that is that the peak of cold weather is between mid-January and mid-February in general. Given either a slack flow, cold uppers and/or a wind sourced from a frozen landmass with little modification, ice days remain a distinct possibility.

LS

[cj114]

I have always found that Feb usually delivers the Coldest part of winter and if we are going to get Snow this in the month that delivers it!

I am only going by 50yrs on this planet, but my Husbands Birthday is usually freezing and many years coming back from his Birthday meal has been in Snow.

This winter reminds me of the 80's though, so I am not convinced Feb will be that cold, or not for long at least. However if the 80's are anything to go by we will have Snow in March too.

Oh my Gas Bill!! It's going to take all Summer to pay it off, assuming we have one this year!

Now that would be something to look forward to.

[risk of sleet]

I'm not sure I can be responsible for my actions if we don't (again) get a summer.

2nd line

[Lincs Observation]

i dont know if this is the right place to put this but if not could the Mods move it to an suitable place.

Now this about sums up what a fantastic winter it has been so far globally.

http://news.bbc.co.u...cas/8501246.stm

LO

morning all

In addition to the goings on above in the usa, heres a snip of what MAY be on its way to us..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8489736.stm?ls

LO

[Neilsouth]

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Mainly dry with bright or sunny spells in the west, but cloudier with sleet or snow showers in the east. Significant snow accumulations possible locally. Cold, frosty and winds easing.

Updated: 0411 on Sun 7 Feb 2010

:yahoo:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interesting ...how do you see it panning out based on this mornings GFS ?

Thanks

Ian

I didn't see this until today! Looks like growing chances of quite a prolonged cold spell setting up, snow amounts are still up in the air. Next week looks dry for the majority of northern and western Britain but the eastern side of England, and perhaps eastern Scotland and southern England, may be in the firing line for a wintry mix of showers early in the week and snowfalls later on in the week. Probably dull and damp initially (today & tomorrow) then turning bright and showery.

We are back firmly in cold territory again with widespread air frost last night and tonight.. Feb often is very frosty.

Some believe Feb can't deliver the same level of cold as Jan. I completely disagree, early-mid Feb on average sees the coldest weather of the winter. SST's are colder now than in Jan, the arctic is colder, the continent is colder.. early-md Fev is similiar in nature to early-mid August when we usually see our warmest weather of the summer. As the days lengthen the cold strengthens, the onyl difference as we head through Feb is the warming sun, but it is still very weak.

I think mid Feb can deliver the same level of cold, but not for as long, because of the warmer sun (a very potent easterly or northerly will still bring sub-zero maxima despite any sunshine, but then once the airflow slackens it will become less cold).

The main issue next week will be less in the way of cold upper air than in the early January spell, though particularly if we can get that east-north-easterly draw off the continent at some stage, it may still get very cold with maxima close to freezing and minima several degrees below.

[TEITS]

The main issue next week will be less in the way of cold upper air than in the early January spell,

Im not sure I agree with this statement although again it depends on your location.

During the last cold spell in Jan the flow was intially a weak NE,ly. When this veered E,ly and we had the -11C uppers these only lasted for around 36hrs before warming up from the E.

This week we have upper temps around -8C which look likely to drop to around -12C towards the end of the week. Beyond and upper temps look to remain around -7/8 before possibly dropping once again from the N.

Personally I found the Jan cold spell rubbish for my region. The only time I witnessed notable heavy snow showers was during a friday evening which lasted until 2am Saturday morning. My snowfall depths never exceeded 3cm!

Also worth mentioning that despite the stronger sun the SSTS are below normal especially off the Norfolk coast. So if sunshine is in short supply towards the end of next week then it could be very cold, especially in E Anglia/SE.

Edited February 7, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Tim Bland]

Anyone fancy a trip to washington? Check this out http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8502681.stm

If they can experience a 1 in 90 year event there is nothing to say the same can't happen here. Half that would be a once in 90 year event here.

The good thing about this cold spell is that we dont have to panic about precipitation etc straight away. This looks like a slow burning cold spell that will get gradualy more severe. My current view is that it will peak early next week with some widespread snow falls and ice days.

It sticks in my mind though that in Feb 1991 NE USA was experiencing record high temps! I recall this becuase of the classic Ian McCaskill forecast which shows temps of 21c in NYC

Just goes to show that there are lots of diffferent synoptic routes in the Northern Hemisphere to achieve cold in the UK.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Thunder Snow]

Well when i seen the weather forecast from Thomas i got alittle excited, but apart from a few snow flurries for my area. Most of the action is going to be the East.

[TEITS]

Excellent forecast from the BBC and probably even better than I imagined.

Have to say though that some of the comments on the model discussion thread are becoming rather tiresome!

[Bristawl Si]

Excellent forecast from the BBC and probably even better than I imagined.

Have to say though that some of the comments on the model discussion thread are becoming rather tiresome!

Agreed TEITS.

It's absolutely nailed on that we're in for a decent cold spell, prob lasting well into next week. At the mo Eastern areas are favoured but the models have been showing that for days now.

And when will people ever learn that these spells 'develop' over a period of time. By this time next week even i could be snowed in, early 80s style

"Patience" is the key word and many people on the forum haven't got any of that!