Cold Spell Discussion

[Bolton67]

I think this shows how marginal the situation will be for most areas, as many places got rain on the 23rd of Dec and the upcoming synoptics are quite similar. looking at the GFS I would say a definite risk of snow only for the central spine of Northern England and Scotland, not exclusively for high ground either. On the 23rd Dec most places got rain apart from very central areas of northern England, this was the scene in the center of Leeds (30m ASL) on the 23rd where only a few miles east got rain

, and the scene on the morning of the 24th

more heavy snow which wasn't forecast .

Nice Vids .

I sent John Holmes a pm the other week, ''i once saw 8 inches of snow falling in Bolton, yet 12 miles away in Manchester they did not get a single flake ''

Next week will be like that in the UK. some will be happy ,while others will be upset.

Edited February 12, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[snowray]

I find a NE wind can turn out like this if it was east/NE to S/SE off the continent then it would be much colder,the north sea must play a big part this week with the surface flow,and the wind has been blowing all week,different to back in January it was much lighter.

NW wind can be colder and more productive for snow.

Yes for Wales a NWly is very good but not for the London area, but historically NElys have been good as we have seen in East Kent in the last couple of days. In fact the North sea is colder than it has been for a long time, about 2c below ave for the time of the year, so I would have thought that this would have helped to produce lower temps and more snow then sleety rain.

TEITS was saying just now on the model thread that there has been a lack of cold uppers to our East and this causes the milder Easterlies, I just dont know what to think.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I agree.

If you look at todays charts one would expect snow showers but away from high ground, about 150m, its all been rain or sleet.

People on here say that before Christmas is too Early for a decent Easterly, wait til February, then come Feb everyone says the sun is too strong for a decent cold pool to establish itself!!

Personally I think it can snow any time from October to April in the UK as we have often seen, but everything has to be just right, but usually things just turn out just wrong, only just mind....

The few light showers I have seen today have been snow and light graupel. Latest shower just now was proper snowflakes

Regarding the easterlies, again I would disagree with that - it is not that there hasn't been any cold air to the east, it has been there in abundance!. The situation has been that the pattern has been retrogressing very quickly all winter so all the easterlies have been brief and the cold pools from that vector have not arrived properly as the wind has backed into the north and north west ahead of shortwaves and compact low pressure moving down from Norway, Iceland or Greenland.

The main sources of upper cold air has been from the north/north east with a Scandinavian trough

[Rob]

How come that warning is not in place for Eastern/South eastern England?

Met office warnings

will be too mild, rain or sleet at most here

[Geordiesnow]

I think one of the reasons why today temps are slightly higher despite the cold uppers is because of the lack of showery activity and thicknesses are fairly high, i'm sure thicknesses can affect the temperature even if you don't have any showers? I'm not too sure.

Been fairly chilly here but with rain showers and thats it although the clouds were fairly convective but sunshine was pretty much at a premium.

[snowray]

The few light showers I have seen today have been snow and light graupel. Latest shower just now was proper snowflakes

Regarding the easterlies, again I would disagree with that - it is not that there hasn't been any cold air to the east, it has been there in abundance!. The situation has been that the pattern has been retrogressing very quickly all winter so all the easterlies have been brief and the cold pools from that vector have not arrived properly as the wind has backed into the north and north west ahead of shortwaves and compact low pressure moving down from Norway, Iceland or Greenland.

The main sources of upper cold air has been from the north/north east with a Scandinavian trough

Yes I would have expected snow in rural Kent today away from the coast where there is good snow cover and the coldest uppers hanging on. The main problem for the rest of us was in fact the higher Dew points, I had a heavy shower this morning from a streamer, nothing wrong with the intensity, but was just rain with the odd flake mixed in as DP's role as the heavier PPN came in. As you say, every time the wind veers more Northerly, up go the temps.

Edited February 13, 2010 by snowray

[Snowyowl9]

Colder last night as upper air got lower and it was cloudy all night with a tiny sprinkling of sleet/snow iced water drops.

Min of -0.3c...3.4c now and some sun and cloudcover NE to N wind.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[yamkin]

will be too mild, rain or sleet at most here

Will Hand the Chief Forecaster at Haytor is sticking by his prediction:

"I haven't changed my mind on the forecast. I have already

explained that mass ascent is to take place in cold air (forecast dew points

are low with sub-zero in places all around the low), that is a scenario for

a widespread snow. Thicknesses are still around 528DAM in the south mid-week

turning colder later. Light precip in the south will be rain but moderate or

heavy bursts will readily turn that to snow. From the Midlands northwards

snow is more certain and on all ground above 200m asl nationwide. What more

can I say at this stage, there are big uncertainties regarding distribution

of precip. and we will have to wait for high res. models for that."

[Iceni]

Just had a light snow shower — we're 110 m asl here — just enough to make a marginal difference

[yamkin]

Just had a light snow shower — we're 110 m asl here — just enough to make a marginal difference

Same here, just had another light snow shower and there's more on the way

[ribster]

I think you should try reading it again then, its not rocket science like some of the more technicial posts.

Ok, well Sardinia is a much, much smaller Island, its snowed there on and off all Winter even in the Capital Cagliari on the extrme Southern Coast, and Corsica, and they are both in the middle of the Western Med.

At our latitude and with the Atlatic still well and truly closed for business what happens to us I ask? We end up getting mild air from the North, shoving the cold pool over us out East, then instead of contunuing South it just stops, end result bitter cold NElys end up in the Atlantic. It's madening stuff realy, like a bit of fiction, couldn't make it up if you tried.

It's snowed on and off here all winter, I think your expectations must be way too high, this winter has been excellent for snow and cold. Judging by your profile you've been around the last 20 years, or do you have a short memory??

Anyway, I need to desist from this before the mods slap me.

[Iceni]

I think you should try reading it again then, its not rocket science like some of the more technicial posts.

Ok, well Sardinia is a much, much smaller Island, its snowed there on and off all Winter even in the Capital Cagliari on the extrme Southern Coast, and Corsica, and they are both in the middle of the Western Med.

Sardinia is mostly mountains with the odd high plateau… I even saw several ski runs there when I was on holiday last summer. A huge proliferation of LandRover Defenders too which rather points to what their winter conditions can be like.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Iceni

[snowray]

It's snowed on and off here all winter, I think your expectations must be way too high, this winter has been excellent for snow and cold. Judging by your profile you've been around the last 20 years, or do you have a short memory??

Anyway, I need to desist from this before the mods slap me.

I have no idea why your getting so jumped up? I dont realy care if it snowed every day in North Norfolk for the last 20 days or even 20 years for that matter. Did you even bother reading the post properly I ask myself, probably not.

Anyway, In view of the fact that I now feel that you are a mmmm, lets see, oh I know, a wind up merchant, and that I have never personally attacked anyone's posts on here in this way, I shall now ignore you.

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Sardinia is mostly mountains with the odd high plateau… I even saw several ski runs there when I was on holiday last summer. A huge proliferation of LandRover Defenders too which rather points to what their winter conditions can be like.

True, but it does snow on the coast as well. Look up snowfall at Cagliari which is the Capital, its on the Southern Coast, think it snowed there just yesterday again, or the day before.

Heres a nice pic, Rome, The Eternal City under the snow yesterday: Baths of Caracala

Edited February 13, 2010 by snowray

[Eugene]

Hasn't been too bad a cold spell here, i noticed the canal all icey when walking alongside it so it shows its been cold enough to make the canal very icey on long stretches something that isn't that common around here.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Eugene

[lukemc]

Hi,

Just asking are parts of Mainland Europe near or adjacent to the UK (such as parts of France, Germany and the Benelux countries) more snowier on average in the winter? Because I thought that more "continental" areas are colder but drier in the winter but we have more precipitation but it is more marginal and more likely to fall as rain in those situations (with the possibility of convective showers of the North Sea too that nearby mainland Europe don't normally see) For example I remember that during the February 2009 snow event the UK and Ireland seemed to get the most out of that set up with a cold and snowy pattern, whilst Holland and Belgium seemed to be cold and dry, but for the same period in 2010 the exact opposite has occurred with the nearby parts of mainland Europe bearing the brunt of the snowfall whilst most of the UK (except the SE) remains cold and dry - why the difference is it due to the position of the HP and the trough? It would be interesting to see the average snowfall stats for those areas and compare them with the UK.

Also question about the climates of Europe, is it true that the true continental climate in Europe does not begin until you reach the eastern part of Germany (into Eastern Europe) as I have read that some define a true continental climate as a climate that is able to maintain a fixed period of snowcover every winter down to low altitude, with at least one winter month with an average temperature at or below freezing, then surely going by this definition would you say that the western parts of Germany and Benelux have a more continental influenced variant of a maritime climate?

Luke

[Lewis]

Glad to hear im not misreading the fax charts.

Looking rather dry with the exception of NE Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.png

This is why I can't see mucn snow elsewhere. Remember a stalling front with constant heavy rain will drop the temps. Also worth mentioning that at this range I will always go with the NAE.

Your really clutching to nothing TEITS.

Your looking and try to manipulate the model output to favour your area.

The SE/EA are never and never was an area favored for snow. DAM/Thickness, Isotherm, Dews, are all against you.

Things could change, but other than the odd flake in heavier sleet/rain, i would not expect anything if i was you mate.

[PubliusEnigma]

A tantalsing chart. Very cold flow across the UK with a LP coming from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Interesting weekend for N England if the 06Z verified.

Theres a wretched High over Malta, which rules out any chance of the Low you mentioned tracking SE into the MEd.

[Archie_Lewis]

Your really clutching to nothing TEITS.

Your looking and try to manipulate the model output to favour your area.

The SE/EA are never and never was an area favored for snow. DAM/Thickness, Isotherm, Dews, are all against you.

Things could change, but other than the odd flake in heavier sleet/rain, i would not expect anything if i was you mate.

You better go call up the Beeb and Meto guys then! They are forcasting heavy snow for SE and EA Tuesday, go and tell them that they are munipulating the charts to favour the SE and EA in their forecasts!

[PubliusEnigma]

You better go call up the Beeb and Meto guys then! They are forcasting heavy snow for SE and EA Tuesday, go and tell them that they are munipulating the charts to favour the SE and EA in their forecasts!

Have you got a link to the MO site where it promises Heavy snow for the SE on tuesday. I cant find anything

anywhere that says this, although a lot of people here are forecasting this. ?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I do think we have plenty to look forward to for the rest of this month. This week and into next weekend the risk of snow will always be present due to cold air/LP being close by. However on a negative note im rather nervous about the HP to the S as this could cause LPs systems to track NE bringing mild SW,lys. I fear this is why the ECM mean has risen over the past 24hrs.

I agree Tamara about Dec 1978. I will be happier if the ECM continues with the trend and the ensemble mean drops down again.

Lewis so if im wrong why are the BBC/Met O saying the same as me. We need to cut out this nonsense about the SE bias.

hi Dave,

I admire your good work,nothing wrong with your ananlysis.Sometimes i dont always agree with you but thats what DISCUSSION forums

are about.

I have absolutely no idea what this week will bring but theres some good posts with charts and that helps people

to judge the outlook so carry on the good work old bean.

[Alex95]

Yes I very much agree, all there is the possibility of back edge wet snow for E Anglia/SE areas.

Don't be mislead - the front will be weakening by the time the colder air catches up, at best you will see some wet snow before the whole lot peters out.

The best place to be would be where the front wraps back in, which looks like NE Scotland to me. N England also looks like getting some snow in the form of troughs, but nothing too significant, and I've noticed a feature is being modelled to move from Northern Ireland into Scotland midweek, eventually clearing NE Scotland. These areas could get heavy snow. The SE quarter could get snow, but it very marginal to me. Hence there are no METO warnings out as the METO are presumably thinking the same thing.

Towards the end of the week the Northern 1/2 or even 2/3 of the UK stand a chance of seeing a substantial snow event, though it might turn out on the wrong side of marginal close to the North Sea, and Northwest Scotland might miss out too.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes I very much agree, all there is the possibility of back edge wet snow for E Anglia/SE areas.

Don't be mislead - the front will be weakening by the time the colder air catches up, at best you will see some wet snow before the whole lot peters out.

lol one hell of a post there what aload of rubbish clutching at what?

infact after the messy week looks very exciting indeed and in the last 10 15 years ive not been on a bigger rollercoaster than i have in the last 2weeks,

but theres other trends building in both camps mild and cold,

but in my opion the cold keeps coming back this is thanks to the teleconnection look how far the jet is look at blocking and more building maybe soon,

so its not over until the fat lady sings.

as for the meto there done a good job of there medium and short range forecasting excellent but so have netweather so lauching attacks at forecasters ect ect is totally a cope out.

as foor eye clutching hes not hes reading into what he see,s and is not suggest anything will happen hes simply expressing what he is seeing,

[Archie_Lewis]

Have you got a link to the MO site where it promises Heavy snow for the SE on tuesday. I cant find anything

anywhere that says this, although a lot of people here are forecasting this. ?

Tuesday to Wednesday forecast on the national page!

Risk of Heavy Snow for SE England

also watch the beeb forecasts!

[Tom D]

Have you got a link to the MO site where it promises Heavy snow for the SE on tuesday. I cant find anything

anywhere that says this, although a lot of people here are forecasting this. ?

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Run through the map forecast, which has a heavy snow symbol over the London area for the whole day.

[Weathizard]

Have you got a link to the MO site where it promises Heavy snow for the SE on tuesday. I cant find anything

anywhere that says this, although a lot of people here are forecasting this. ?

Look at the forecast for the London area, Kingston just south of London has constant heavy snow predicted for a day or so..