Cold Spell Discussion

[FENDER.]

I think you will be way off the mark with that, I think the potential for widespread snowfall next week is looking very promising. Of course things between now and then can change due to it being a week or more away but the models look very good as things stand. Im saying that despite being in one of the worst places usually for snowfall from a northerly. If the low pressure to our north east intensifies just a tad and drags down colder 850s any marginallity will be removed.

The Met Office update seems to suggest rain next week, with any snow confined to Northern Hills.

[johnholmes]

The Met Office update seems to suggest rain next week, with any snow confined to Northern Hills.

why oh why rather than do a slight misquote don't you quote the whole piece or actually paraphrase it correctly?

[FENDER.]

why oh why rather than do a slight misquote don't you quote the whole piece or actually paraphrase it correctly?

Sorry I though it was a fair summary?

[Mark Bayley]

Metoffice states snow is more likely on the hills, but will not be confined to the hills

""Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday (16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground. ""

Last sentence continues to show snow won't be confined to high ground

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edit: Not to confuse people

Edited February 9, 2010 by mark bayley

[Optimus Prime]

""Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday (16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground. (Note, not confined to the hills) ""

Want to explain why you decided to add the last bit yourself?

[Lynxus]

Can we have this please?

[Neilsouth]

Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling pressure. Three things will aid snow development:

1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and falling pressure.

2. Decreasing stability forcing convection

3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will

hmmm we shall see

[disco-barry]

Very good time lapse there! makes a change from petty forum members!

[Mark Bayley]

Want to explain why you decided to add the last bit yourself?

The bit in brackets? To ephasise it was not confined to high ground which is what some thought. Probably shouldn't have placed it in the quote lol

Edited February 9, 2010 by mark bayley

[damianslaw]

Early next week though beyond the reliable timeframe is showing a very good chance of widespread heavy snowfall in the north filtering into central and perhaps southern parts. Uppers will be very cold courtesy of the deep cold arctic air, the lapse rate will be high and evaporative cooling in evidence.

A deep seated northerly will be very unstable, such synoptics can easily deliver heavy snow in the north as late as April, this being Feb heavy snow would be almost a cert with blizzards the order of the day - its a much much better synoptical pattern for heavy snow than what we have at present.

[Tom D]

Early next week though beyond the reliable timeframe is showing a very good chance of widespread heavy snowfall in the north filtering into central and perhaps southern parts. Uppers will be very cold courtesy of the deep cold arctic air, the lapse rate will be high and evaporative cooling in evidence.

A deep seated northerly will be very unstable, such synoptics can easily deliver heavy snow in the north as late as April, this being Feb heavy snow would be almost a cert with blizzards the order of the day - its a much much better synoptical pattern for heavy snow than what we have at present.

However there were times this time last week that this current easterly was much better placed than its turned out so caution when looking out beyond +144 is important. I don't think talking about blizzards at this range is cautious But the trend and possibility of continuation of cold conditions into next week remains.

[Weathizard]

Early next week though beyond the reliable timeframe is showing a very good chance of widespread heavy snowfall in the north filtering into central and perhaps southern parts. Uppers will be very cold courtesy of the deep cold arctic air, the lapse rate will be high and evaporative cooling in evidence.

A deep seated northerly will be very unstable, such synoptics can easily deliver heavy snow in the north as late as April, this being Feb heavy snow would be almost a cert with blizzards the order of the day - its a much much better synoptical pattern for heavy snow than what we have at present.

I see you mention Southern parts may get some snow but looking at the charts my part of the woods is in a NE/ENE airflow, will this not bring snowfall for my part of the world? I'm not an expert on this btw so sorry if I'm completely wide of the mark..

[damianslaw]

However there were times this time last week that this current easterly was much better placed than its turned out so caution when looking out beyond +144 is important. I don't think talking about blizzards at this range is cautious But the trend and possibility of continuation of cold conditions into next week remains.

Yes I have used the word caution on the model discussion thread..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Early next week though beyond the reliable timeframe is showing a very good chance of widespread heavy snowfall in the north filtering into central and perhaps southern parts. Uppers will be very cold courtesy of the deep cold arctic air, the lapse rate will be high and evaporative cooling in evidence.

A deep seated northerly will be very unstable, such synoptics can easily deliver heavy snow in the north as late as April, this being Feb heavy snow would be almost a cert with blizzards the order of the day - its a much much better synoptical pattern for heavy snow than what we have at present.

I still would be happier if it was 4-5 weeks earlier, 16th Feb I feel will be very marginal for low lying inland areas, high levels no problem, even today my temp reached 6.4C probably due to stronger sun radiation

[Liam J]

my top temp today was 4.3c and now -0.8c so quite chilly but not the cold we were hoping for like the models were showing in the past.

if the cold verifies next week as shown there would be lots of snow over a large part of the uk, with intense arctic cold air...

it sounds like february is the new april with people saying marginal or to warm for low level snow?!

its mid feb heading into late winter, recent years have brought my most snow fall in march with marginal events giving 5 foot drifts (2006) the only problem the sun melts it fast but the right synoptics always deliver.

but its in fi and i will only start to believe if its still showing at the weekend, long way to go.

Edited February 9, 2010 by james12

[Snowyowl9]

The NW-ly at the end of January/early this month makes today`s N/NE look average like feb 2005 all over again,it was cold enough to snow though buts temps on a par with then.

One or 2 days then only gave just a wet wintry showery mix from a cold NE-ly and upper air were well low enough.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Wilks]

Chucking it down with snow here at the moment

[Liam J]

met office flash now for kent, and looking at the current met o radar there in for a pasting!!

sunny here and 2.1c

[SP1986]

5.5C here, sunny feeling chilly in the wind but fairly mild out of it.

Overnight min: 0.9C

[Peter Henderson]

Whatever happened to this week's "BIG FREEZE" ??????????????????????????????????????

Quite pleasant here today, tempt. 6 degrees. a slight frost this morning. Futher outlook from the met office is forcasting rain on Sunday. Hardly a "BIG FREEZE"

Edited February 10, 2010 by Peter Henderson

[Rollo]

Perishing here(windchill -7c) and just the odd light snow flurry,obviously not what we hoped for during the end of last week but still wintry enough.

[i luv snow]

Hammering down with snow in Ipswich !

[Polar Continental]

Feeling very cold here this afternoon with light to moderate snow and graupel showers, only slight accumulations though. It is noticeable how the temperature plummets in the showers, briefly reached 3.8c around lunchtime, currently 0.5c in the snow shower, feeling like –5c in the force 3-4 northerly wind.

[Airedalejoe]

Don't know if I'm looking at different models to everyone else- it looks like the cold spell is still "on" for the longer-term, evolving similarly to the December spell with a west based -ve NAO but the jet staying largely away to the south. Sunshine and snow showers for most, but perhaps a bit less cold with frontal sleet/snow events in the south (rain near the south coast) and daytime thaws in any sunshine.

A lot of south-east bias is perhaps manifesting itself here but even towards the SE it would only require a very slight eastward shift from both GFS and ECM to leave the SE fully exposed to the coldest air.

Glad someone else has the same opinion as me after viewing the models!! We're currently in a cold spell, icy on a morning some snow showers at times, the possibility that more is to come next week. It's been a cracking winter and I would happily take this every year..it's the UK folks not Quebec!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

An inch of snow in Norwich, and spectacular cloud formations- the convection is beating anything I've seen this winter so far, and that's saying a lot!