Cold Spell Discussion

[trickydicky]

This isnt a reply to any posts on here but more on the way easterlies are talked about every time they appear on a model. Can we put to bed the idea that "of course, the south-east and East Anglia will always benefit most from any easterly flow". Its just not true, the most snow and coldest daytime temps you can bet your life will be in Northumberland/North Pennines, Eastern Scottish Borders and Aberdeenshire.

[Eugene]

Mild air really struggling to get into the midlands even, looks like its gets squeezed out as it moves northwards today, incredible really and to think very mild temps maybe even into the early teens seemed possible for this weekend just 3 days ago, so glad i didnt get sucked in by models showing very mild, wet and windy taking over

[sandstorm2]

Can only hope that every council in Britain has taken the opportunity to stock up on grit and salt, because by the look of the models they are going to need plenty. Wonder if the metoffice have given them any early warnings.

SS2

[Ben_Cambs]

RAMP RAMP RAMP.......

[Winter Monsoon]

High im still learning the models but i see alot of people talking about east and north east etc etc. My question is to the more experienced...or anyone who cares to answer lol.

If this does verify will there be snow for the west/north west?? will it be heavy?? Sorry i know this is strictly model related but it is in a way as its to do with the current output. Just i know alot will read in here and just hoping that some one can give me a quick answer.

Thanks

[Ben_Cambs]

High im still learning the models but i see alot of people talking about east and north east etc etc. My question is to the more experienced...or anyone who cares to answer lol.

If this does verify will there be snow for the west/north west?? will it be heavy?? Sorry i know this is strictly model related but it is in a way as its to do with the current output. Just i know alot will read in here and just hoping that some one can give me a quick answer.

Thanks

If these charts do verify, everywhere will be at risk from snow. Its way too far off to know how heavy it will be etc, and admitidly it is too far off to know where the snow is most likely to fall at first.

[Eugene]

With the excitment growing with the model outputs looking more to a snowy spell again, can anyone confirm if the charts do come off what temps we are looking because with the GFS+144 posted by Paul B shows some very deep blues and as a beginner on here I'm not sure what temps we are looking, but i'm sure if it is very cold.

Depends where you are most likely 1C to 3C generally in any sunshine esp in the west, temps dropping to 0C and below in any snow showers during the day, temps around -3C at night if breezy dropping more if winds calm down.

Wind chill factor will be the main factor in how cold it feels and very low dewpoints.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Eugene

[cyclonic happiness]

With the excitment growing with the model outputs looking more to a snowy spell again, can anyone confirm if the charts do come off what temps we are looking because with the GFS+144 posted by Paul B shows some very deep blues and as a beginner on here I'm not sure what temps we are looking, but i'm sure if it is very cold.

probably similar to the last cold spell, but the sun is a weenie bit stronger now so it could help the snow situation with convection of any showers, more so than December.

[Iceni]

probably similar to the last cold spell, but the sun is a weenie bit stronger now so it could help the snow situation with convection of any showers, more so than December.

Good. Because apart from the 17th December (which was about 3 to 4 inches) we in west Suffolk had very little — it was topped up from time to time but just by 1cm — we just seemed to miss out every which way although there was lying snow for a couple of weeks…

I've just checked my snow forecast and it says snow falling for 11 consecutive days starting early hours Monday morning. If we get a third of that I'll be very happy, although I'd love to be snowed in for a few days — got the logs, got a freezer-full of food and only need to go out in it to walk the dogs — bliss.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In a showery north-easterly with 850hPa values around -10C nearly all of eastern Britain gets affected, but it tends to be hit and miss in the west. Often both the models and the TV forecasts underestimate the amount of precipitation generated over the North Sea, suggesting that nothing makes it into western areas when in reality some western areas get affected as well.

[Eugene]

Even since the very cold spell ended nearly three weeks ago, every week somewhere in the UK has seen snowfall esp the north and i saw a dusting on sunday night, i see people keep mentionng the last cold was three weeks ago but thats not the case, we had an easterly attempt around Jan 20th that gave some snow, Northerly late last week into the weekend and a very brief northerly mid this week which gave some heavy snow in the north when that front moved northwards into the cold air yesterday so it's been far from a mildfest.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's probably because the snowfalls of the first third of January were almost nationwide whereas since then the snowfalls have tended to affect limited areas of the country.

Certainly in Norfolk I saw last weekend as representing a brief return to cold bright snowy weather.

This isnt a reply to any posts on here but more on the way easterlies are talked about every time they appear on a model. Can we put to bed the idea that "of course, the south-east and East Anglia will always benefit most from any easterly flow". Its just not true, the most snow and coldest daytime temps you can bet your life will be in Northumberland/North Pennines, Eastern Scottish Borders and Aberdeenshire.

Just wanted to pick up on that post, as it really depends on where the source of cold air is.

A "continental" easterly flow bringing polar continental air from the east or southeast will usually hit the south-east and East Anglia the most, as those areas will get the coldest upper air and see numerous snow showers, while further north it tends to be less cold. The main issue with this setup is that it can often end up cold and cloudy but dry.

This winter's easterlies, on the other hand, have featured mainly arctic continental air or even arctic maritime air coming down and across from the east. This means northern areas often get the coldest upper air and often see the biggest snowfalls as a result. It is also usually bright and showery, hence the way our snowy spells have tended to coincide with large sunshine amounts. This is why I talk of easterlies with a "northerly" source.

[Eugene]

Aberdeen's winter weather set to last until March

Cold spell will go on for weeks

By Rita Brown

Published: 04/02/2010

WHITEOUT: Gritters and snowploughs have been at full stretch to keep routes around Aberdeen clear.

More Pictures

ABERDEEN'S winter weather could last well into March, experts claimed today.

The warning came as the Aberdeen area endures its coldest winter for almost 100 years.

Blizzards and sub-zero temperatures have hit the Aberdeen area since December.

And now Aberdeen residents have been warned to gear up for more bad weather as the cold snap looks to continue well into March.

rbrown@ajl.co.uk

Read more: http://www.eveningex...=#ixzz0ebByk4ju

I wonder if she's anyway related to our ian

More accurate forecaster though

Edited February 4, 2010 by Eugene

[damianslaw]

High im still learning the models but i see alot of people talking about east and north east etc etc. My question is to the more experienced...or anyone who cares to answer lol.

If this does verify will there be snow for the west/north west?? will it be heavy?? Sorry i know this is strictly model related but it is in a way as its to do with the current output. Just i know alot will read in here and just hoping that some one can give me a quick answer.

Thanks

Easterlies sourced direct from the near continent tend to deliver snow mainly for south eastern parts and eastern coastal areas, Kent, East Anglia and the London area do notably well when the flow is directly from the near continent.

North western parts tend to do much better when the easterly has more of a arctic continential airflow attached to it, i.e. a NE flow from Scandanavia, showers will penetrate if the wind is strong enough, as we head into Feb with a stronger sun, convection can aid the development of very heavy showers which have less chance of fizzling out when they reach this side of the Pennines. If an organsised trough develops from the north east western Pennine areas and central east lakes do very well for snow.

Looking at the synoptics, there is a good chance heights will strengthen to the NW aiding a NNW flow and trough development as we see the scandi trough in situ.

[nick sussex]

Why when the threat of snow does this site always flatter to deceive regarding snow potential for your own area. For example trawling the other sites for encouragement Metcheck states absoluteley no snow for my location in Poole for the next 14 days. Weather outlook suggests the same. Even the BBC give temperatures of 5 degrees plus for next Tuesday. Incidentally the symbols never come to fruition on here and I would suggest its not the models that are over progressive but this site itself. We will see.

Can I give you some advice, metchecks automated bag of tricks are a waste of time, too much glitz and not enough quality content, bbc automated 5 day forecasts are a pile of pants, TWO I don't know but generally don't take too much notice of automated output.

It's impossible to say this far out regarding snow potential but for fear of being shot by certain posters! the set up generally favours eastern and se areas of both Scotland and England, these are the highest risk, however as we've seen from the last cold spell other areas still have a decent chance.

Edited February 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[Lewis]

Hi guys, just thought i would let you know.

My first blog post on Net-w;

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/236/entry-3966-cold-spell-incoming/

Just me thoughts, enjoy.

[Peter Henderson]

The BBC are announcing the forthcoming coldspell on their weather forcasts this evening, as are RTE. Weatheronline are confident it's going to get really cold and snowy eventually. The UKMO are still being somewhat cautios and not getting too excited at this stage with a cold or rather cold long range outlook.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

May I ask and gauge what people's idea of a prolonged spell of cold is? My view is up to 3/4 days is a snap. A week to 10 days is a spell. 10-14 days a prolonged spell. This of course is not metorological standards but my own view. And we have a spell coming with possibly breaking into prolonged.

BFTP

[Ripeberry]

Ian Ferguson on the local news this morning said it would just be a 'snap'. I thought he would have

said 'cold spell' if it's going to last all week. But maybe not in the south west

[cooling climate]

May I ask and gauge what people's idea of a prolonged spell of cold is? My view is up to 3/4 days is a snap. A week to 10 days is a spell. 10-14 days a prolonged spell. This of course is not metorological standards but my own view. And we have a spell coming with possibly breaking into prolonged.

BFTP

I would say thats pretty near to the way I tend to judge them, although 5+days would to me constitute a spell.

10 and over prolonged and 14 days + considerable(very stable hemispheric pattern as NOAA keeps alluding to

on this upcoming pattern).

[Totoro]

May I ask and gauge what people's idea of a prolonged spell of cold is? My view is up to 3/4 days is a snap. A week to 10 days is a spell. 10-14 days a prolonged spell. This of course is not metorological standards but my own view. And we have a spell coming with possibly breaking into prolonged.

BFTP

My last reply to your post was deleted - I have no idea why. Okay, it's a tad off topic, but so is your question which has obviously remained.

Anyhow, my answer was that your summary sounds reasonable to me.

[Duane S.]

May I ask and gauge what people's idea of a prolonged spell of cold is? My view is up to 3/4 days is a snap. A week to 10 days is a spell. 10-14 days a prolonged spell. This of course is not metorological standards but my own view. And we have a spell coming with possibly breaking into prolonged.

BFTP

I'd go with that analysis of a spell/snap/prolonged cold.

Your earlier post was also very much along with my way of thinking in that as the block tries to sink (as it likely will a bit) it will only serve to increase the strength of any Easterly, possibly away from the North. It will be unlikely to sink too far IMO and I still think the form horse is retrogression to the promised land. Add to that that the timing of the SSW could have been absolutely perfect!

[Lewis]

Safe bet is, turning cold with snow showers affecting eastern districts from Sunday onwards, with tuesday/wednesday/thursday heavy snow showers for eastern areas, some prolonged giving accumulations in places, strength of the flow, and the HP still not nailed, so it can only upgrade

Cold and dry for other areas with wintry showers on a fresh to moderate ENE'rly wind. Night time temps dipping very low, with severe frost likely the further inland you are.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Hammer]

Met Office twitter states

Cold weather next week. Night frosts everywhere. Snow showers in east, slight covering in places, not as bad as in January.

[john mac]

You've got to laugh, the Daily Express has gone off on one, the cold snap has made the front page and it hasent even started yet