Model Output Discussion:

[cyclonic happiness]

How do we know it's overcooking the lows though? Especially when the balanced forum poster will admit that they don't know whats going on, as much as everyone may disagree with this for obvious reasons, at the time frames suggested as deep low has as much chance as a returning easterly.

It must be getting something wrong, that low by 162 must be 3000 miles across???

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=1

Edited February 2, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[Geordiesnow]

The gfs low production line continues, Why does the gfs nearly always overcook LP systems in the atlantic?

I can't see any overcooking of low pressure systems, all the models are showing a massive low pressure system in the Atlantic at this moment in time. Its probably one of the reasons to our downfall for hoping for an easterly.

This weekend could see our first proper widespread double figures for a good old while but that could change if the other big 2 are indeed correct.

[cold snap]

little rant sorry.

Met office fax

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

They have gone to the effort of doing this,but still they are coming with a cold story..

Whats going on?

Edited February 2, 2010 by cold snap

[Snowyowl9]

a PRETTY GOOD fax CHART;

If you like mild S-lys last nights chart.

This first chart is pretty good,looks like the low dies a death though.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack3.gif

ECM would come out better low further south but just cold rain/sleet or wet snow.

[damianslaw]

My take on the models this evening is that they are just reverting to the default pattern, i.e. whenever there are signs of a big low in the atlantic moving our way, they position it on a SW-NE course. Upstream signlas support a southerly tracking jet next week - we have a fairly southerly tracking jet right now. Teleconnections do not support a rampant atlantic - more likely ridging to develop over the mid-north atlantic next week, once they get this message, which they seem to be ignoring they will alter the position and track of the low with medium term outlooks as we head towards mid Feb showing a much more settled and cold outlook.

[remymartin]

How do we know it's overcooking the lows though? Especially when the balanced forum poster will admit that they don't know whats going on, as much as everyone may disagree with this for obvious reasons, at the time frames suggested as deep low has as much chance as a returning easterly.

I admit im still learning but ive been wathching the gfs model long enough to know that low will not come to fruition even at 66h. Look at it

[J10]

yes I would recommend that some with a jaundiced view on weather forecasting variability actually read the NOAA 6-14 day explanation from them of how the models are coping. The most likely set up over the northern hemisphere-largely geared to their area of course, but often with ramifications in a similar time scale for the Euro area.

For instance this evening they comment with marks of 5/5 that the pattern Stewart has given the link to is considered correct.

Note the wave length of the main troughs-its very long, which suggests only slow movements and a tendency to edge west does happen sometimes. The UK is shown to be under a 'weak' upper ridge which has the effect of weakening and slowing the apparently active Atlantic.

By no means is the pattern settled beyond the end of this week, be it for mild or cold.

If you can accept that and watch the developments then you should not suffer too much trauma for what actually occurs!

Excellent analysis, from both John and Stewart, very much food for thought,

Even though a short term easterly blast looks unlikely, there are signs of channel lows and undercutting lows even at T+72, and this bodes well for any potential event in the later time frame.

[igloo]

weather for ducks for the foreseeable future even eastern europe will have a rapid thaw a rotten run one thing for sure it cant get any worse

[Jason T]

it will all change tommorow.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm sorry, but putting aside the chances for another cold spell/easterly the GFS is nonsense

Yes, we know that a large deep low is likely in the western atlantic but all this revolving dumbelling dartboard low near the UK that never fills for days on end is surely nonsense. According to this most of europe is heading for Spring

This model exaggerates everything from snowstorms and ice ages to windstorms, southerly plumes, northerlies. I could go on!

Sorry for a very unscientific post, but I find so little value in this particular model

Edited February 2, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[stewfox]

It must be getting something wrong, that low by 162 must be 3000 miles across???

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Yes Eastern seaboard to Norway

How do you model that and what its going to do.?

[cyclonic happiness]

current and latest news 24 high pressure building from the n east gradually getting cooler with a easterley developing

Lol!!! omg don't say things like that?!! :wacko: we are all confused enough as it is, well at the end of the high res' that stupid low is just sitting there, hardly filling or moving and it is MASSIVE?!

I hope it's not there next week or it will be front after front after front of rain, but at least it'll be mild *coughs*

[lobbox]

OT but made me smile... 'ITV weather, sponsored by confused.com' :wacko:

[nick sussex]

On tonights model viewing with ten being a brilliant eastlerly heres how i rate the models this includes 18Z

ECM 2/10

GFS 4/10

UKMO 3/10

Just seen the Met office fax for Sunday and its terrible.

Only one way down now.Met office have to change there words now.Dont there?

I think you're being over generous I'd give them the following

ECM 2/10

GFS 0/10

UKMO 1/10

The ECM gets a two because its the least horrifying of tonights model output.

I'd give the following horror rating out of 10 for the GFS 18hrs run 9/10 down from the 10/10 for the 12hrs! This is of course because we've had such a good winter so far , in normal winters the GFS would get a 7/10!

Trying to scrape a few positives, the jet is still well south and the trough isnt so sw/ne alligned,still some reasonable heights to the north. I'm particularly grumpy tonight as I see a horrid foehn possibility for the Pyrenees which is a shame as the current snow line in this area is around 700 metres.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm sorry, but putting aside the chances for another cold spell/easterly the GFS is nonsense

Yes, we know that a large deep low is likely in the western atlantic but all this revolving dumbelling dartboard low near the UK that never fills for days on end is surely nonsense.

This model exaggerates everything from snowstorms and ice ages to windstorms, southerly plumes, northerlies. I could go on!

Sorry for a very unscientific post, but I find so little value in this particular model

It's just a shame it is the most used though, due to having 4 runs a day and far more charts e.g. precipitation type than the other models, but the verification stats say it all really http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.gif

Just not as good as the ECM and UKMO. The 18Z is also the worst of its runs anyway, hence the pub run quip.

[SP1986]

I think to answer the question of where is the Atlantic getting it's energy up, this sets up a chicken and egg theory counter question.

[davehsug]

Lol!!! omg don't say things like that?!! :wacko: we are all confused enough as it is, well at the end of the high res' that stupid low is just sitting there, hardly filling or moving and it is MASSIVE?!

I hope it's not there next week or it will be front after front after front of rain, but at least it'll be mild *coughs*

If yoou look at it's extremes it actually stretches from about Hudson Bay to Moscow! I know JH siad it was a long wave but....

[Cloud 10]

I admit im still learning but ive been wathching the gfs model long enough to know that low will not come to fruition even at 66h. Look at it

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

It might do on this occasion.

[Jason M]

Hi All

GFS doesn't look right to me. The Atlantic low (as another poster mentioned) just looks too deep. Also notice how the low which just parks itself off the coast of Scotland maintains its central pressure for days.

Some big changes to come I feel!

Better be, or there will be a lot of flooding early next week

Jason

[johnholmes]

f only, if only, more of you would look up from the GFS hourly watch-take in what the northern hemisphere is showing, read what GP and CH amongst others post in the technical thread-read the inputs from Ian regarding his insight into Met senior man's thinking-take a broader more balanced view-read the FULL NOAA outputs for 6-14 days and look at their charts-believe me some of you would then get a whole new perspective of models and how they work-also far less upset that some of you seem to have almost every day.

just a silly old professional mumbling so best ignored I suppose.

I'll tune in tomorrow morning, no need to look at the models, simply read the first half dozen posts to know what you feel they are saying.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It's just a shame it is the most used though, due to having 4 runs a day and far more charts e.g. precipitation type than the other models, but the verification stats say it all really http://www.emc.ncep....0_G2NHX_00Z.gif

Just not as good as the ECM and UKMO. The 18Z is also the worst of its runs anyway, hence the pub run quip.

I often don't bother looking at it. I will look at the ECM and UKMO first and then the GEM and afterwards, sometimes, see how the GFS compares to them all.

The only pattern that it is reliable with is tramline zonal south westerlies (as in corridor of death south westerlies not this particular pattern) Even then, it doesn't know when to stop and generates low bomb after low bomb and only generally comes to a screeching halt after the euros have picked up a pattern change about 2 days before!

Of course I am being a bit tongue in cheek and I will check the other data and stratosphere etc - but I am not a GFS fan I'm afraid!

Edited February 2, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Bobby]

Even the Fax charts have the low with pressure in the 940s. It's messing up everything, if it was weaker we'd probably be in business.

So it's not the GFS thats overcooking it.

[Secret Society]

i cant believe folks Are STILL LOOKING at GFS

just watch ukmo and ecm.

groundhog phil has better consistency than the GFS

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Even the Fax charts have the low with pressure in the 940s. It's messing up everything, if it was weaker we'd probably be in business.

So it's not the GFS thats overcooking it.

As I said, it is not the deep central low in the western atlantic that is the issue. That is a very accurate signal for the likely pattern. It is the over development from there and shortwave frenzy that the GFS embarks on that is questionable.

[snowspotter]

i cant believe folks Are STILL LOOKING at GFS

just watch ukmo and ecm.

groundhog phil has better consistency than the GFS

Indeed. The 96hr ECM looks good to me. I reckon there will be some upgrades by tomorrow , just a hunch.