Model Output Discussion:

[keithlucky]

The 18z control run is a good example of why things are in so much disagreement. It's vastly different the the operational after about t+120.

Back to question i posted earlier the only thing constant is the met office forecasting a cold spell, what model do they use they are consistant saying cold outlook for next week?

[chris78]

Back to question i posted earlier the only thing constant is the met office forecasting a cold spell, what model do they use they are consistant saying cold outlook for next week?

...perhaps no model ...output is so random they are using more traditional forecasting methods to reach their solution...although i think as others have said they willl very probably change tomorrow???

[dave79]

Back to question i posted earlier the only thing constant is the met office forecasting a cold spell, what model do they use they are consistant saying cold outlook for next week?

Surely they have other more highly programmed models which they use to recieve there information regarding the outcome in the weather. I cannot see them sharing the same models which users on the net are freely available to. That said there are some very knowledgeable users on here that seem to know what they are talking about, so who knows.

[SnowBallz]

Surely they have other more highly programmed models which they use to recieve there information regarding the outcome in the weather. I cannot see them sharing the same models which users on the net are freely available to. That said there are some very knowledgeable users on here that seem to know what they are talking about, so who knows.

Their servers interpret data which is fed through to them by the Met Office. These servers then deliver 'forecasts' across all of their media, ensuring consistency in their output

And yeah, the Met Office DO have their own forecast modelling system. They consider the output of all the available models - but (understandably) trend towards their own one. That's not to say that theirs is always accurate: because it's been proven that it isn't - but, on the long-term output, it more than likely performs considerably better - for the UK anyway - than the others which are out there, which I doubt have such a focus on the British Isles.

Edited February 3, 2010 by SnowBallz

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Well say for example there was a major weather event on the way, would they want users on the net reading the same info they have. This could cause havoc in the press and on the streets etc. So surely they have other more programmed models which they use to recieve there information regarding the outcome in the weather.

ROFL is there a post of the year competition because this gets my vote. You know they could be a hint of truth in that because I recall that the B.B.C. were saying on the eve of the last big snow event in January that the worst area would be in the West of England when infact 1 of our very own forum members was saying that the band of snow would be further East and he was right.

I even remember forum members from the West posting in the SE and London forums congratulating themselves after listening to the B.B.C. forecast.

Maybe this time they have fixed the models because they dont want to cause panic buying down at the local Tescos lol.

Oh dear you just have to laugh and lighten up sometimes on this forum after the mad and and crazy model runs over the last 7 days.

Maybe Ian Fergusson is trying to warn us forum members in a secret code in fear he gets found out for leaking out the Armageddon conditions heading our way, hey Im only joking of course... or am I ?

Over to you Ian.

[nick sussex]

Back to question i posted earlier the only thing constant is the met office forecasting a cold spell, what model do they use they are consistant saying cold outlook for next week?

The UKMO have their own raw output upto 144hrs, but they also have the ECM aswell as its ensembles as they don't run their own medium term ensembles, I'm sure they look at the other models aswell, they also have shorter range ensembles by way of the MOGREPS.

In terms of them calling cold next week I find that quite a leap of faith, perhaps the weekend could see an east to se flow but unless they expect the Atlantic low to be further west than currently modelled with a stronger ridge from the NE then i just can't see how that could occur.

[dave79]

Their servers interpret data which is fed through to them by the Met Office. These servers then deliver 'forecasts' across all of their media, ensuring consistency in their output

And yeah, the Met Office DO have their own forecast modelling system. They consider the output of all the available models - but (understandably) trend towards their own one. That's not to say that theirs is always accurate: because it's been proven that it isn't - but, on the long-term output, it more than likely performs considerably better - for the UK anyway - than the others which are out there, which I doubt have such a focus on the British Isles.

cheers for that snowballz, So they have a wider range of models and when the majority come in line with any type of weather we may recieve, they tend to agree with the majority of models. Clears that one up then.

[Matty M]

I do believe that the Met Office dont believe the mode output at the minute.

I think the ECM 96hr chart is of great signifigance.

Why? because think back a few days ago, at this point we were progged to have the low banging into us at this stage.

But note the ridge is quite extensive to our north.

Push that Atlantic low further west would then allow that trough over Scandy to dig south high pressure to build

behind it and cold easterlies to follow.

Important not to overlook that chart. The best of the night.

Slight energy changes in that output around this stage would have Huge effects down the line.

This is nowhere near over, 0z will be intriguing viewing.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Matty M

[TEITS]

cheers for that snowballz, So they have a wider range of models and when the majority come in line with any type of weather we may recieve, they tend to agree with the majority of models. Clears that one up then.

Just want to correct a few errors Snowballz made.

When it comes to the medium/longer range the Met O do not have their own model. Beyond +144 they will look at the ECM output and the ECM ensembles.

The only models that we don't actually see is the MOGREPS (short range ensembles) and a more detailed look at the ECM ensembles. I find the limited access to the ECM ensembles very frustrating.

Edited February 3, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Paul T]

- The charts and ensambles show a mild outlook to feb

- The recent charts have been showing signs of decent cold weather only over 144hrs, a classic 'recent winter' sign of it not materialising. (ref most winters of the last 20 years)

- I know you lot are trying to hold onto the late Dec/Early Jan cold, but its gone, and law of averages, along with climatic equilibriums, leads to the fact that the atlantic will boss us again for some considerable time. Its a fact, and dont fool you, largely, intellegent heads.

STOP....

And accept what is going to actually happen.... 2 weeks of Atlantic domination.

I hope im wrong, but i dont think i will be

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Generally I check the ECM and UKMO first and then if they've got a cold outlook I don't really care what the GFS shows as that will normally cave in anyway!

To me the GFS is like Iceland supermarkets, lots of quantity and offers but poor quality and crappy old stodge that might fill you up but give you indigestion! The ECM is like Waitrose, you can't afford much but what you get is good quality, the UKMO is like Sainsburys , good but with the occasional irritating Jamie Oliver moment!

Apologies to Iceland fans but any company that employs that irritating Coleen Nolan deserves to go out of business!

Nick I would class the UKMO in the brand of Tescos 'every little helps' God knows what Asda is? Sorry off topic but I couldnt resist delete, delete delete. Oh my the models have had me so confused and at times I have been reaching for the prozac. Im now leading a different approach with my mood swings following the model runs in a way very eratic and laughable.

[SnowBallz]

Just want to correct a few errors Snowballz made.

When it comes to the medium/longer range the Met O do not have their own model. Beyond +144 they will look at the ECM output and the ECM ensembles.

The only models that we don't actually see is the MOGREPS (short range ensembles) and a more detailed look at the ECM ensembles. I find the limited access to the ECM ensembles very frustrating.

I made errors?

News to me. That's never happened before; you do realise that's a world first?

It's incredibly important not to make errors, because that makes you look incredibly foolish. I mean, can you imagine if I made them on a daily basis? I might as well not bother getting out of bed.

Speaking of which, what the hell am I doing looking at model at 12.35? Nite nite TETIS

[dave79]

Just want to correct a few errors Snowballz made.

When it comes to the medium/longer range the Met O do not have their own model. Beyond +144 they will look at the ECM output and the ECM ensembles.

The only models that we don't actually see is the MOGREPS (short range ensembles) and a more detailed look at the ECM ensembles. I find the limited access to the ECM ensembles very frustrating.

I find your posts very interesting and from a novice point of view, I can learn quite abit from what you say and the models you post. From your point of view someone who study's these models and charts, I bet you find it very frustrating only having limited access to the ECM ensembles, imagine what you could post if you had full access to the ECM ensembles, anyway keep up the good work.

[yamkin]

Interesting NOGAPS 18Z 78h, 84h & 90h. The low out West looks very progressive to me.

[TEITS]

I find your posts very interesting and from a novice point of view, I can learn quite abit from what you say and the models you post. From your point of view someone who study's these models and charts, I bet you find it very frustrating only having limited access to the ECM ensembles, imagine what you could post if you had full access to the ECM ensembles, anyway keep up the good work.

Thanks ever so much.

Yes ideally I wish I could take a look at all 50 members and the exact charts they show rather than just the 2m temp etc. Sometimes we do get the odd freebie which im always grateful for.

Based on my observations this seems to be the charts/models that the BBC/Met O use. I will add this is only an observation so I could be wrong. I will also include the links.

0-48hrs NAE model/Fax charts.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ukmomod;sess=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0

48/72hrs charts. These charts are produced by the Met O and these are based mainly on the UKMO model.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

96/120hrs charts. A majority of the time these are based on the UKMO model. However sometimes you will find these resemble the ECM but at other times they are a blend of the ECM ensembles.

+120 and beyond. ECM operational/ECM ensembles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

I am uncertain how much info the Met O use from models such as GEM/GFS/NOGAPS etc. I suspect very little due to how impressive the UKMO/NAE/ECM/ensembles perform in these timeframes.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not much to comment today except look at ECM T96...worry no further, there is only one development from there..and it will show more and more over coming days.

BFTP

[Eugene]

lol i did say monday night i expect sunday to look alot different later this week, well i didn't expect it quite as early as today, 16C/17C on sunday, not in your dreams mate

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

[Optimus Prime]

lol i did say monday night i expect sunday to look alot different later this week, well i didn't expect it quite as early as today, 16C/17C on sunday, not in your dreams mate

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn11417.png

Wow and I thought I was the only human being that wakes up obsessively early.

The GFS has once again changed to now cshowing a South Easterly. I think we can safely say this may end up as nowcasting rather then forecasting.

[Eugene]

UKMO 00Z doesnt play ball BUT there is now quite alot of runs on the GFS 00Z ensembles showing similar to GFS 00Z OP , what a nightmare for forecasters, no 16C/17C though for sure on sunday no matter which way it goes

Edited February 3, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Very encouraging ensembles, definate cooling trend into next week and the very good GFS 00Z OP was one of the milder runs too

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[Iceberg]

Yes Another shift in the ENS downwards, EPS hinted at this on the ECM 12Z. Much improved ECM 00Z as well, shift the lows 300 miles (it was 500 miles on Monday) or change the tilt and you get a very nice chart.

Stil nothing is decided also interesting the models go for the HP and a brief easterly now for 96Z on the GFS and ECM.

[Eugene]

I expect the ECM ensembles to show the OP as one of the milder solutions, check out GEM 00Z iceberg very interesting run indeed, this really is very complex indeed and FI is very close atm.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Eugene

[Jayces]

If it does get colder next week then this is something the models have been showing for a while though see sawing between cold and mild yet the Meto have only ever shown colder with their 6-15 day outlook and people have been slating them when the models show mild.

So, Meto have stuck to their guns so far even when the models change because they keep changing back.

Does this mean the Meto know something we dont, are models not as good as human experience and input?

[andymusic]

If it does get colder next week then this is something the models have been showing for a while though see sawing between cold and mild yet the Meto have only ever shown colder with their 6-15 day outlook and people have been slating them when the models show mild.

So, Meto have stuck to their guns so far even when the models change because they keep changing back.

Does this mean the Meto know something we dont, are models not as good as human experience and input?

don't think it'll be human "experience" as we haven't been experiencing winters like this for sometime now - got to be further computer info that we don't have access to that is assisting them with hedging their bets

Afterall they do have super super computer down at Exeter - mega calculations etc - not all of the data it churns out are we gonna be able to access I'm sure

Edited February 3, 2010 by andymusic

[Great Plum]

Very encouraging ensembles, definate cooling trend into next week and the very good GFS 00Z OP was one of the milder runs too

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It seems that the crunch date is the 7th Feb - look at the spread from that date! Lets hope the OP run represents the actual weather!