Model Output Discussion:

[TEITS]

I don't think the shortwave over Norway has much to do with it- the strength of the Atlantic is the main cause.

A combination really.

If the Scandi trough hadn't been so stubborn then we would probably already be experiencing the E,ly, remember the ECM was very progressive intially in moving this SE. The combination of the scandi trough hanging around has prevented the block from moving further SW. This has allowed the Atlantic to approach from the W.

Its mild all the way! I have no idea why they would say otherwise

Didn't you say the same prior to yesterday mornings runs!

Every winter I try and learn from the model output. This winter I have certainly learn't a great deal which is why I remain open minded to tomorrows model output.

Edited February 2, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[LomondSnowstorm]

I said it this morning, and I'll say it again: anything after this is uncertain - I mean, look at the differences at this stage anyway:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN96-21.GIF?02-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-96.GIF?02-0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-96.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-1-96.png?12

All I can say is that the GFS and ensembles look out of kilter with the ECM and UKMO operationals in bringing the trough further east at +96.

Expect more changes to the outlook - perhaps it will be mild southwesterlies, but I still wouldn't bet against a turnaround of some sorts over the next 24 hours. As TEITS says, we were meant to be looking at low pressure as far northeast as Scandinavia by +72, and that clearly isn't going to happen.

LS

[bluearmy]

sorry mods slightly off topic but just to add further questions about the models, just now on our local bbc news , our weather girl stated that it would get much colder next week, does this help or cloud the issue with the model outlook even more

given the meto 15 dayer, which is the most up to date outlook she currently has for next week, compared to this week in the south, she is right. however, i doubt ian would have bothered saying anything once he'd seen the ukmo 12z. i guess you can maybe tell whether she's a weather presenter or a weather nut from this.

[nick sussex]

I don't think the shortwave over Norway has much to do with it- the strength of the Atlantic is the main cause.

Yes the Atlantic is a big problem but the Norwegian shortwave also has a role to play in stopping more ridging sw'wards which could have made the difference in tilting the jet more favourably. The upper trough begins to weaken but its too late by then, also the shortwave developing helps the trough elongate as it absorbs the shortwave, without the residual pieces of the Scandi trough hanging about things could have worked out quite differently both now and with the easterly fiasco of last week.

[stewfox]

The models are changing like the proverbial, not even worth looking at them for the moment.

The fat lady has had more come backs the Frank Sinatra

Her final exit or entrance is T96

[bluearmy]

A combination really.

If the Scandi trough hadn't been so stubborn then we would probably already be experiencing the E,ly, remember the ECM was very progressive intially in moving this SE. The combination of the scandi trough hanging around has prevented the block from moving further SW. This has allowed the Atlantic to approach from the W.

GP was warning early last week that nwp that removed the scandi trough quickly should be treated with caution. a victory for the teleconnections over the models. having read his thoughts yesterday evening, todays output doesnt surprise me.

[SP1986]

I really think this is just variations in the models, variations occur at the worst and best of times. I don't think right there's any new trends setting up on the models, what's happening on the ECM is pretty of what's been forecast anyway before the southwesterly comes in.

That said the milder weather will probably pushed back a bit each day, but eventually the Atlantic will come in at least for a short while.

[PLANET THANET]

given the meto 15 dayer, which is the most up to date outlook she currently has for next week, compared to this week in the south, she is right. however, i doubt ian would have bothered saying anything once he'd seen the ukmo 12z. i guess you can maybe tell whether she's a weather presenter or a weather nut from this.

she also had the wind coming from the north on saturday, i am a novice to this so i cant tell if that is correct to the models

[Jason T]

Evening all dont know whats going on with these models. As i say always not that xp on them. However if the beeb and meto are sticking to cold, they must be using human instinct in that the models are incorrect in someway.

I do feel for all of you on here as it is a nightmare.

However i truly feel that this mild spell thats showing on the models all the way through WILL NOT HAPPEN as in lasting something will change by tommorow night thursday morning.

The models will be showing there true colours and in agreement.

..................

[Frosty.]

Not much to say about the ECM 12z...it's rubbish, the GFS 12z at least shows colder air pushing south later next week.

[Great Plum]

Hi all,

some useful posts tonight amongst the angst and frankly some blatant trolling...

anyway, it would seem from tonight's models, that if the plump female hasn't started to sing, she is having her glass of sherry to limber up the vocal chords... However, there is something not quite right here - as TEITS and others have said, FI is around the 72-96 mark - I'm glad I'm not a forecaster...44

The Beeb and the Met have been bullish about much colder weather next week, far more bullish than you normally hear from them so I wonder if a chang eis afoot...

[nick sussex]

Just when I thought I'd be taking a little break from the models up pops the ECM with a ray of hope! I think the models are doing this on purpose so that we stay interested. If i can map a plausible route to cold i'm here! I was going to admit defeat on the next week when I saw that awful looking elongated trough on the GFS and UKMO, however the ECM gives the smallest of positives this evening which is welcome, so you're stuck with me for the timebeing!

Edited February 2, 2010 by nick sussex

[Great Plum]

That's true Codge... they have seemed remarkably consistent that colder weather is coming... However, I think this has been a nightmare to forecast so we'd need to cut them some slack...

when are the Faxes out?

[TEITS]

I really think this is just variations in the models, variations occur at the worst and best of times.

Whilst I agree, you have to admit the change in the operationals has been incredible and even surpass Dec 05.

As an example my mother asks for an outlook on a daily basis. Within the last 48hrs I have told her it looks cold, mild, cold, mild.

What I find particularly fasinating from a model perspective is how the Met O have consistently predicted a cold outlook when very few UKMO/ECM runs have actually shown this. They couldn't of recieved much help from the ECM ensembles because these have been very uncertain. The only plausible answer is they disbelieve the model output and are using their own forecasting instinct which is something I mention quiet often.

Now I don't want members assuming that I believe a cold outlook is certain. What I am saying is I have little faith in the model output between +96/+144 and that I remain open minded towards tomorrows runs.

P.S The Met O don't need to answer for anything. At the end of the day this has been a very tricky period to forecast which is why even the supercomputers have been struggling.

Edited February 2, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[nick sussex]

To lift the mood a little I've put emergency straw clutching plan A into action!

Heres the 96hrs from the JMA, not great after this but has the jet further south.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=96&mode=1

Edited February 2, 2010 by nick sussex

[snowmadchrisuk]

GP was warning early last week that nwp that removed the scandi trough quickly should be treated with caution. a victory for the teleconnections over the models. having read his thoughts yesterday evening, todays output doesnt surprise me.

I don't think that is totally correct , Forecasts were as of last night .. Negative ao , Negative NEO , an MJO heading for phase 8 all these things point to Strong Northern Blocking to be present in the Forecast. I also think that a cold spell is still likely and the Control and the Operational is so different on every run this shows me a patten change is likely and it hasn't been figured out yet .

[Cloud 10]

UKMO>> ECM>>

At least some good agreement between the ecm and ukmo 12z's at +96with cold air hanging around over the north of the uk.

The gfs 12z for the same time looking rather different with more agression from the atlantic resulting in a stronger less cold flow over the uk.

FI seems to be 4 days out or less at the moment.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Cloud 10

[karyo]

Just when I thought I'd be taking a little break from the models up pops the ECM with a ray of hope! I think the models are doing this on purpose so that we stay interested. If i can map a plausible route to cold i'm here! I was going to admit defeat on the next week when I saw that awful looking elongated trough on the GFS and UKMO, however the ECM gives the smallest of positives this evening which is welcome, so you're stuck with me for the timebeing!

Well, we'll be glad to have you here no matter the model output!

Seriously though, don't you think that this block to the east will just become a problem rather than a friend? It has the potential to keep the Atlantic systems over us or just to the west, with us stuck under a continuousy mild flow!

Karyo

[Strider]

Not much to say about the ECM 12z...it's rubbish, the GFS 12z at least shows colder air pushing south later next week.

Just when I thought I'd be taking a little break from the models up pops the ECM with a ray of hope!

Uh... does not compute.

[KTtom]

Pretty much agree with most that being said for next week and I really can't believe that the last 2 forecasts I have seen have mentioned only a brief milder spell before the cold returns next week. Why would they go that far out if they didn't have to?

Talking of models Why don't N-W provide a link to UKMO charts or the extended ECM on Wetter?

[Cleeve Hill]

Well, all you cold weather fans, I was listening to Radio Gloucestershire at 6.30 tonight and Richard Angwin (Ian Fergusons buddy) was saying Winters is still lurking, referring to AO and NAO. He said mild until mid next week when easterly will returning and weather looking like it will turn cold again. He specifically made comment about significant snow in these parts.

The models are hiding something.

[nick sussex]

Well, we'll be glad to have you here no matter the model output!

Seriously though, don't you think that this block to the east will just become a problem rather than a friend? It has the potential to keep the Atlantic systems over us or just to the west, with us stuck under a continuousy mild flow!

Karyo

Thats very nice of you Karyo

Well this is always the problem in these set ups where a western based negative NAO is forecast, as you can see once the elongated trough appears on the scene running sw/ne and the block to the east sinks its a very slow moving pattern until theres an upstream change.

I do wonder what you said earlier regarding the MJO moving back towards phase 6 is causing these changes, although this by itself might not be totally to blame perhaps its tipped an already knife edge pattern the wrong way in terms of cold, although the forecasts expect it to move towards phases 7 and 8 I'd much rather see its actual position.

[TEITS]

Uh... does not compute.

Im not surprised your confused.

This is why there remains a ray of hope which is why Nick S is correct.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

I shall just repeat again what I said earlier.

If we're are to see a return to cold then it won't be directly from the E via the blocking to our NE. Look at the ECM +96 chart and what remains possible is the energy from the trough goes SE rather than NE. Note the centre of the HP around Greenland/Iceland. Well if the energy does go SE then a NE,ly is more likely than a direct E,ly.

[in the vale]

This may be in the wrong thread so mods feel free to ..... Anyway, with the models swinging about so much there must clearly be a signal or two that are acting as 'fulcrums' around which the models swing. The guys and girls that run and interpret these models must be even more stressed and bewildered than the good folk on this forum. Do they never communicate with the real world amateur forecast people? Do they have no communication channels to pass information on? I know that hugely complex terrafloppy supercomputers run the numbers but real people set the models and parameters before hitting the 'go' button for each run. Why do we never hear about their headscratching - only the wildly swinging outputs. If the economic forecasts (which use similarly, unimaginabley huge computers running Monte Carlo simulations) struggle then we get to hear why. I am puzzled as to why professional forecasters sit in a black hole that allows no information beyond the event horizon... Or am I missing some vital piece of the puzzle? As a complete novice - quite likely!

[Frosty.]

Uh... does not compute.

It was just my opinion, the ecm 12z doesn't show anything wintry in my opinion with winds mostly from the south, sometimes with a bit of ssw'ly and a bit of sse'ly but unsettled with some rain and near average temps.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Frosty039