Model Output Discussion:

[karyo]

Could it be that a stratospheric warming is not what we need when we have an already established cold pattern? Last winter was cold with a favourable nw-se jet until the major stratospheric warming occured and then we got trapped in a mild pattern for the rest of the winter?

Just wondering...

Karyo

[Shunter]

ECM at T96...............it couldn't could it ????

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ECM at T96...............it couldn't could it ????

http://www.meteociel...96&mode=1&map=1

The ECM is better than the other models at t120....

Nothing mind blowing but pressure is higher to the north east - much I was trying to suggest seemed more logical when speaking of the UKMO

Edited February 2, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

ECM at t96 and there is bags of potential, I would naturally assume a very cold

pattern would develop from here. This is where FI starts and while we keep on

seeing charts like this then a very cold pattern has every chance of succeeding.

[Tom D]

ECM at T96...............it couldn't could it ????

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1

There's one hell of a battle going on on the ECM, big high pressure over us, to our south, east and northwest with the Atlantic trying to break in from the W/SW. The drama isn't over yet.

t+120

[D KARLSON]

very poor performance in the models of late and thats to be expected and this continues until a new pattern emerges.

Less cold weather overall to come for most, but even then dont be surprised to see northern areas hanging on to some sleet and snow especiaslly Scotland as the residual cold air hangs on here.

I dont think the cold air will ever be too far from Scotland and this will contue for the next week ,with cold air perhaps trying to push south again as we approach mid month ,there is still an awful lot on uncertainty in these nodels at the moment so dont rule out some surprise snowfalls here and there

[TEITS]

ECM at t96 and there is bags of potential, I would naturally assume a very cold

pattern would develop from here. This is where FI starts and while we keep on

seeing charts like this then a very cold pattern has every chance of succeeding.

Even at +72 there is a difference between the ECM & GFS with the Atlantic LP slightly further W on hte ECM.

Personally if it was me I would go and nuke the bloody thing. Far from settled at the moment.

[Weathizard]

The models are changing like the proverbial, not even worth looking at them for the moment.

[bluearmy]

alas, was just a tease ................

T144 looks very consistent to T168 from the 00z run. the pressure build to our south is stronger than from our north - the energy must go somehwere and at the moment, thats ne. unless either the ridging from the north becomes stronger or the heights to our south weaken (unlikey looking at the energy headed into the trough), there appears to be only one direction for the energy to go.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Even at +72 there is a difference between the ECM & GFS with the Atlantic LP slightly further W on hte ECM.

Personally if it was me I would go and nuke the bloody thing. Far from settled at the moment.

Irrespective of what the rest of the output shows, I've seen enough within the 6 day period to suggest that the outlook is far from settled yet.

It is that t120 to t144 period again - it can't be trusted, much as all week. And as you say differences start before that anyway.

[SP1986]

I think the ECM is just showing the variation in the models. I don't think 72 to 96 hours is the turning point any longer - it will come close without doubt but looking at the evolution I don't think an easterly/cold pattern will develop inside that 96 hours. It is possible an easterly could develop later but I think within the 96 hour frame there is too much energy, and it's closer to the timeframe.

As always I'm ready to be proved wrong but this is just my opinion and sticking my head out either bravely or stupidly.

[Bobby]

ECM isn't as bad as the other models but we're still in a wet SWly flow.

As people have said, we need the undercut. We aren't getting it unfortunately.

[MR EXTREMES]

There's one hell of a battle going on on the ECM, big high pressure over us, to our south, east and northwest with the Atlantic trying to break in from the W/SW. The drama isn't over yet.

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?02-0 t+120

flicking through the ecm so far does show pressure build from the ne but as you already suggested pressure else where theres nowhere for the low to our west to go except over us.

although over time as the low weakens then this could allow a push from the ne or east only problem is how strong is the low to our west it looks like middle ground setup with sw or southerly flow and the southerly flow looks very mild coming up from africa although cooling as it gets here but mild.

ECM isn't as bad as the other models but we're still in a wet SWly flow.

As people have said, we need the undercut. We aren't getting it unfortunately.

yep i agree spot on i cant see any cold in the realiable at all i think the game is up in the short to medium term.

[bluearmy]

if you look at the NH plot on ecm 12z, you see that the evolution of the rex shaoed block with the norwegian shortwave pivoting around to the se support and atlantic trough to sw is shown perectly at T168. the meeting point today is just off the norwegian coast. yesterday, it was southern just to the se of england. the pattern remains the same - the extra energy from the atlantic trough has shoved it about 400 miles ne. i suppose that if the atlantic energy is overplayed at T120, the pattern could come back to where it was yesterday but unless the models swing back tomorrow, i doubt it.

my point is, that ecm isnt choping and changing. the pattern is the same. its just where it ends up thats moving around. if we agree that there is x model agreement on the atlantic energy up to T96/T120, then we must accept that we will be too far south to benefit from next weeks pattern. at the moment, there probably isnt, so we still have a chance for things to change. by tomorrow T96 will be T72 and then, its unlikely the atlantic is poorly modelled re energy distribution.

[cooling climate]

I certainly would not want to make a forcast for next week based on the runs

I have seen tonight. The ECM at t168 showing promise again with what looks

like troughing trying to undercut although on Meteociel it is sometimes hard to

tell.

[igloo]

good agreement from all models today for mild wet and windy conditions at least for the next week any Easterly that may come will be in our dreams

just shows how a crap little shortwave over norway spoils everthing

[MR EXTREMES]

I certainly would not want to make a forcast for next week based on the runs

I have seen tonight. The ECM at t168 showing promise again with what looks

like troughing trying to undercut although on Meteociel it is sometimes hard to

tell.

t168 pointless looking at we can only get a answer up to t96 and im sure now the answer is milder sw flow wet windy or even middle ground but no cold.

there is no way around it cc its not going to happen for sometime yet.

[TEITS]

Here is my view and how this may change in the next few days.

Take a look at +72/+96.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

According to the model output a few days ago mild SW,lys should be pushing into Scandi. So why aren't they in this chart and why is Scotland seeing E,lys? Well the answer is simple rather than the energy from the trough going NE as suggested by the models we see a LP system weaken and move SE.

Moving onto +144/+168.

Once +144/+168 moves in +96/+120 timeframe I wouldn't be surprised if the above repeats itself. Even at +72 the GFS/ECM disagree with the positioning of the Atlantic trough and in my opinion the outlook will remain uncertain for the next 24/48hrs.

Im sure some will say im straw clutching because all the models are showing roughly the same thing. However nothing can be certain when we have witnessed such incredible changes within +144 from the operationals.

[sunnijim]

The BBC Regional forecast here in the SE, has just called for it to turn colder at the weekend, and much colder next week. Go figure!

[Thundery wintry showers]

good agreement from all models today for mild wet and windy conditions at least for the next week any Easterly that may come will be in our dreams

just shows how a crap little shortwave over norway spoils everthing

I don't think the shortwave over Norway has much to do with it- the strength of the Atlantic is the main cause.

[PLANET THANET]

sorry mods slightly off topic but just to add further questions about the models, just now on our local bbc news , our weather girl stated that it would get much colder next week, does this help or cloud the issue with the model outlook even more

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I don't believe a thing the models are showing beyond t96 this evening. The most plausible output in the earlier stages is the ECM.

All this talk of mild swerlies and wind and rain for next week is exceedingly premature imo. At least atm.

[PLANET THANET]

sorry i have just seen someone has beaten me to it

[Yeti]

I certainly would not want to make a forcast for next week based on the runs

I have seen tonight. The ECM at t168 showing promise again with what looks

like troughing trying to undercut although on Meteociel it is sometimes hard to

tell.

Tbh CC I think things are looking pretty clear now; it doesn't look like there is going to be a cold spell in the near future. The fabled easterly has once again disappeared from all the models. This time I fear it is too late for it to reappear.

There was hope this morning from the UKMO but this, too, has now turned into mild SW'lies and I believe the first truly mild spell of winter is nearly upon us. The problem is that the west based NAO is almost more than a help rather than a hindrance as we just end up trapped on the wrong side of the trough with the block holding the unfavourable pattern in position, and whilst it wouldn't take much to bring us a colder flow, these small changes would actually be quite stubborn to occur.

I have refrained from posting until things firmed up somewhat but tonight it seems things have done exactly that. The writing was on the wall a couple of days ago when the easterly appeared only on certain models, and each time that particular model was "the favourite" for some reason or other; for example until this morning the UKMO was written off by most but when it showed the desired undercut this morning it was clearly a "trend setter". For the newbies on here, this is a good indication that a cold spell isn't on the cards.

Hopefully things will be more favourable mid-month as the SSW pumps up the height rises over the Arctic - this may be a more promising period for a cold spell to occur. Until then, the background signals were looking pretty mixed, with conflicting cold/mild signs that in the end look like giving us a frustrating near miss!

[Buxton Codge]

sorry mods slightly off topic but just to add further questions about the models, just now on our local bbc news , our weather girl stated that it would get much colder next week, does this help or cloud the issue with the model outlook even more

They are probably reading the month ahead forecast on the BBC website

Its mild all the way! I have no idea why they would say otherwise