Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking at the Current weather reports and all the Snow showers currently falling in the East , the ppn has pepped up and about to hit Leicester , I'm expecting Some Snow tonight .

Dew points are rising so any snow will be short lived...thats if there is any at all imo.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Dew points are rising so any snow will be short lived...thats if there is any at all imo.

Look at the Models though there is colder air following on behind , at least -5 850's everywhere by morning .

[snowmadchrisuk]

NAE would suggest rain being the main form of precip for the entire region of the Midlands overnight and into tomorrow. Can't rule out a wintry mix of sleet or wet snow for a brief period. Regardless, the risk of any snow settling or accumulating is probably zero at low levels, with a slight chance of small accumulations over high ground across northern parts of England.

Due points will be a problem with settled Snow tonight , kind of annoying that 40 miles East of me there still at -2 . On the bright side tomorrow evening is much better with negative due points throughout from 6pm .. Might be a bit of wish full thinking but I still have not had enough snowfall this year to build a snowman and it is annoying that places like Norwich are getting pasted right now :

[MKN]

This should make most happy should it happen for our region. A few more upgrades between now and tomorrow evening and it might suprise a few i think

[snowmadchrisuk]

Norwich are getting pasted? You sure?

As for tomorrow evening- there is the risk of a period of sleet or snow at lower levels as the occluded front pulls back north-west. Eastern areas of the country could fair best from this as colder air will be situated over this region. Though may places across the Midlands could see some wintry precip tomorrow evening into Wednesday, but still the risk of accumulations look rather unlikely.

Well radar and weather reports show them to have been reporting Snow for the last 3 hours due points around the South East are also currently around Freezing . GFS is looking good for Tomorrow Night into Wednesday

[A.J]

Plenty of snow falling today near Melton Mobray, east leicestershire where I was working today. It started around 10:30 through until 2pm...settled on cars, but not roads....Dew points were marginal, and slightly milder air gradually pulled in from the NW, ending up with a cold heavy rain on the way back home this evening

[Costa Del Fal]

Wednesday is looking increasingly interesting for us i feel. Will wait till tomorrow for finer detail.

[SteveElbows]

I know it would be silly to place much faith in it, but the BBC forecast has me in for rain, then sleet at midnight, then back to rain, then sleet at 9am and light snow at 12. Shame I wont be in Nuneaton tomorrow morning as Im off to Wellingborough for work and the BBC dont think there will be snow there tomorrow. Not that Im likely to be missing out on much anyway.

[jukebox]

Well radar and weather reports show them to have been reporting Snow for the last 3 hours due points around the South East are also currently around Freezing . GFS is looking good for Tomorrow Night into Wednesday

Not sure I agree with that comment mate. GFS has -5 850's http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png but shows the 528 dam line running through the heart of the country http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn363.png dew points look the wrong side of marginal http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3610.png and any precip looks like it will be slow to push back north and also dying out as it does so http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png all according to the GFS. The UKMO paints a similar picture but with the 528 dam further north and any precip stalling over the s/e and dying out whilst just pushing a small area back north during Wednesday night http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm603.gif GEM paints a similar picture again but wit the precip further west http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem603.gif NAE paints an even worse picture with the heaviest precip over the south east being http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021700_1512.gif and 12 hours later it decays to this http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021712_1512.gif with no real movement of the front though need another few runs of this to firm that detail up. I'm not saying that you wont see snow but as this is an unusual synoptic setup I think we are on the wrong side of marginal to see anything exciting and anything that does fall wont last very long at all. Hope I've bored you all enough with that now lol

UKMO fax chart for Thursday looks a mess, I would,nt like to try and interpret that lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice GFS 18z For Wednesday into Thursday. I think were either going to be very much disappointed or quite surprised. Definately needs to be looked at tomorrow as the NAE says no chance.

The NMM from meteociel suggests maybe.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Blizzards

[jukebox]

NAE says no at 48 hrs http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021718_1518.gif

GFS says yes at 48 hrs http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021718_1518.gif

and GFS 12 hrs later continues the snow http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021806_1518.gif

I honestly aint got a clue what will happen my heart says go GFS but my head says that the NAE will be nearer the mark I think there could be some more lamp post watching to come yet and hopefully this thread will take off again in a few days time

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS seems to be downgrading tomorrow now. Snow unlikely imo. Looks like it will die out pretty much where it is. Another event we miss out on.

Edited February 16, 2010 by Blizzards

[Serendipity]

I'm not too bothered re snow but I don't want rain either! We seem to be stuck in no man's land - not cold but not warm either. No snow but rain instead of bright skies.

3.7 here with a dp of 3.1 - quite a big difference across the country if you look at xcweather. My friend just North of Manchester (so not far from here really I can reach her house in under 2 hours) is experiencing snow right now. It would take some plummet and change in synoptics for it to snow here as the temp and dp are rising steadily.

As an aside though, very few crocuses and snowdrops out compared to previous years!

[Costa Del Fal]

This Mornings NAE is much better but the West Midlands would stay dry with the snow just over in the East Midlands.

[Strider]

I can't find the dewpoints on xcweather?

[Costa Del Fal]

I can't find the dewpoints on xcweather?

Not all stations have them but some have the temperature then a / with the dewpoint next to it e.g Birmingham.

[kar999]

Temperatures, Dew Points etc for many UK weather stations are here. Just set it to your local nearest one.

SkyLinkWeather Aviation

A beautiful crisp sunny day here today... despite skating to work on Black Ice. One van managed to skid into someones wall! The local council (South Staffs) are still not gritting some of the country roads (including rural bus routes) that they previously used to. Maybe because it's Half Term?

I don't know why they are still conserving stocks. I can't see there being anything major or a long lasting snow event in the reliable timeframe. I know it's only mid Feb but whatever is in FI will soon be Spring.

Edited February 16, 2010 by kar999

[Costa Del Fal]

Recently updated BBC maps bring tomorrows snow tantalisingly close.

[Higher Ground]

Recently updated BBC maps bring tomorrows snow tantalisingly close.

Potential snow showers forming tantalisingly close out to our west as we speak???

Edited February 16, 2010 by Higher Ground

[Costa Del Fal]

Showers developing nicely now.

Good convection here as well.

[Serendipity]

We just had a shower.

It was rain.

[kar999]

We just had a shower.

It was rain.

Temperatures and dew points are far too high. And we've had the heat of the sun for most of the day warming the ground.. Higher ground may see some sleet or snow flurries at best IMO.

Edited February 16, 2010 by kar999

[Serendipity]

I agree, just didn't want anyone getting excited about the showers cropping up. I'd rather keep the sun!

[Serendipity]

Just had hail here actually!

[Nick L]

An absolute beast of a shower just skirting to my north, would have liked to seen something exciting.