Model Output Discussion

[Bristawl Si]

We need some members from scotland to give their view on the models because it looks like wintry weather is very likely up there for at least another week and possibly longer, the moaning from some in the south is becoming tiresome.

No one's really moaning Frosty. My post, although not particularly 'techie' in nature is just an opinion of how i see things panning out and i did state that there will be, IMO, a north/south split re cold and possible snow, by the weekend.

So, yes, i'd agree that the north will stay in a more 'wintry' regime - and i qualify 'wintery' to mean colder with snow possible, even probable.

[Cheese Rice]

The short to medium term outlook is cold for much of the country, the main risk of snow and cold is in the north of england and Scotland and at times the whole of the UK. I'm not too sure why there are some downbeat posts, if you live in the far south the outlook isn't amazing but it isn't bad either. Next week is a different story and is not worth been downbeat or upbeat over as we don't know what will happen, negative posts are misleading as it is still too far away to be certain.

[aspire27]

The short to medium term outlook is cold for much of the country, the main risk of snow and cold is in the north of england and Scotland and at times the whole of the UK. I'm not too sure why there are some downbeat posts, if you live in the far south the outlook isn't amazing but it isn't bad either. Next week is a different story and is not worth been downbeat or upbeat over as we don't know what will happen, negative posts are misleading as it is still too far away to be certain.

Disagree.

Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

[Frosty.]

No one's really moaning Frosty. My post, although not particularly 'techie' in nature is just an opinion of how i see things panning out and i did state that there will be, IMO, a north/south split re cold and possible snow, by the weekend.

So, yes, i'd agree that the north will stay in a more 'wintry' regime - and i qualify 'wintery' to mean colder with snow possible, even probable.

Hi BB,

I wasn't directing that comment at anyone in particular but there is a very downbeat mood from some on here and it should be posted in the model moods thread or moaners corner or whatever it is called

I still think it's 50/50 in the longer term, i.e for next week, if lows can track further south it might help pull in some cold uppers from the continent as some of the models are suggesting today but a milder breakdown from the southwest is a real threat by early next week.

[LomondSnowstorm]

We need some members from scotland to give their view on the models because it looks like wintry weather is very likely up there for at least another week and possibly longer, the moaning from some in the south is becoming tiresome.

Ok, tomorrow evening looks interesting for anywhere from Fort William to Wick to Comrie to my location, as a band stalls over northeast Scotland for a number of hours before heading southwest. http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021700_1512.gif

The southern extent is somewhere around Dundee, so potentially very interesting for the residents of two of the largest Scottish cities. Temperatures look impressively cold for where precipitation is falling http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/tmin/10021700_1512.gif http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/tmax/10021700_1512.gif so snow and quickly accumulating on frosty or icy ground is likely for anywhere inland.

After this and IMO the UKMO looks impressive for some snowfall in eastern Scotland, with the low fairly close and an easterly wind kicking in http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?15-18

The ECM is a lovely run and a better one for most areas. http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_72.png

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_96.png

The latter is interesting in particular as this is pretty much the same setup that brought 5 inches to central Edinburgh and 10 inches around the M90 from Perth to Edinburgh.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_120.png

At +144 a brief northerly bout brings in more geniunely cold uppers across northern Scotland http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_144.png , and at +168 everywhere north of Birmingham is under -5 uppers. In fact up to +240 -5 uppers are present across southern Scotland and northwest England http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_240.png

And even for those further south what's not to love about this chart? http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021512/NSea_2010021512_thgt850_192.png

Not quite what '93 was here but it could be pretty good for northwest England and Ireland if it came off. So in summary, nothing in these charts suggest mild, not even average for many areas, and potentially very snowy further north.

LS

[nick sussex]

A mixed bag in the model output this evening, I would say an interesting outlook if you like a bit of everything thrown in, rain, hail, sleet and snow but unfortunately little chance of a proper winter wonderland unless you live on a high hill.

Theres just not the proper cold upper air to deliver with this PM set up, the trough no matter how much its willed just won't move far enough south to deliver some colder ne'rlies, however a temporary snow cover is possible almost anywhere but getting this to last is difficult unless you get a bit of luck and can scrape a clear night with some frost following any snowfall.

Looking at the general track of the shortwaves then the Midlands northwards look to have the best chance of seeing some decent snowfall as these track just far enough south to keep these areas on the colder northern flank but again the colder pools look transitory in nature.

It looks good though for northern Scotland with some appreciable snow and very good news for the Scottish ski resorts. Lets hope that the models can shift the pattern a little further south, they have trended this way over the last few outputs but still need to go alot further to allow some colder air in from the ne.

[Cheese Rice]

Disagree.

Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

"There is NOTHING significant showing in the models regarding cold this week. Maybe some wet snow in places. Any real snow limited to N and NE Scotland this week. Please please stop getting the hopes up of 'newer members'."

How is there nothing significant in the models for cold this week? The whole of northern england and Scotland will see snow and possibly significant snow down to lower levels, the charts clearly support snow. I'm not sure if it is because it is the North of the UK that is at risk that it makes it less important, I'm quite sure if it was looking cold for the midlands south the model thread would be singing a different tune.

"So this week some wintry PPN about the country, any snow and cold weather is in N/NE Scotland. Hope people start to realise this and stop chasing something that has not ever been consistently modelled."

The risk is for the whole of northern England and Scotland, saying cold for North of Scotland is misleading as there is cold air stationary across northern england/Scotland, at times the cold weather will sink south wards across the whole of the UK.

Edited February 15, 2010 by grab my graupel

[Birkhill saints]

Ok, tomorrow evening looks interesting for anywhere from Fort William to Wick to Comrie to my location, as a band stalls over northeast Scotland for a number of hours before heading southwest. http://expert.weathe...021700_1512.gif

The southern extent is somewhere around Dundee, so potentially very interesting for the residents of two of the largest Scottish cities. Temperatures look impressively cold for where precipitation is falling http://expert.weathe...021700_1512.gif http://expert.weathe...021700_1512.gif so snow and quickly accumulating on frosty or icy ground is likely for anywhere inland.

After this and IMO the UKMO looks impressive for some snowfall in eastern Scotland, with the low fairly close and an easterly wind kicking in http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?15-18

The ECM is a lovely run and a better one for most areas. http://www.meteogrou..._thgt850_72.png

http://www.meteogrou..._thgt850_96.png

The latter is interesting in particular as this is pretty much the same setup that brought 5 inches to central Edinburgh and 10 inches around the M90 from Perth to Edinburgh.

http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_120.png

At +144 a brief northerly bout brings in more geniunely cold uppers across northern Scotland http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_144.png , and at +168 everywhere north of Birmingham is under -5 uppers. In fact up to +240 -5 uppers are present across southern Scotland and northwest England http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_240.png

And even for those further south what's not to love about this chart? http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_192.png

Not quite what '93 was here but it could be pretty good for northwest England and Ireland if it came off. So in summary, nothing in these charts suggest mild, not even average for many areas, and potentially very snowy further north.

LS

Thanks for that fantastic info, keep up the good work for all us lurkers.......................................

[lukemc]

Disagree.

Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

What you also must remember is the outlook in the models although not particularity cold outlook by the standards we have just had in the likes January, is showing the potential for quite a few marginal snow events in the reliable timeframe. Some of the biggest snowfalls we have seen in this country in recent years have come from marginal situations when uppers where not particularly low (e.g. the likes of March 2006 yes in March not February! - one of the biggest falls for Liverpool (where I am from) in the 2000s), and where rain instead of snow was forecast just a few hours before hand so although it could rain heavy equally is could snow heavy even down to low ground in places.

Luke

[TEITS]

Disagree.

Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

If you don't mind me saying but your posts aren't realistic either.

Alot depends on members locations and their expectations. If members are looking for a prolonged very cold spell affecting the whole of the UK then their going to be disappointed. However if you're looking for a snow event then this remains possible in the short & medium range and for locations such as N England/Scotland this potential is even greater!

Lets look at the GEFS mean for various locations.

London -5C until 24th Feb.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100215/12/t850London.png

Aberdeen -7C and only rising above -5C on the 1st March.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100215/12/t850Aberdeenshire.png

With these upper temps and the chances of disturbances developing around the LP means the risk of snow continues into F.I.

Also worth mentioning that the front thats moving SE will not bring snow at first. When the front backs W does the risk of rain turning to snow occurs. This looks likely during Tues night into Wed for E Midlands/W parts of E Anglia.

So in summary no signs of severe cold but remaining fairly cold with further snow events remaining possible especially away from S England.

[Cheese Rice]

There could be some quite harsh night time frosts this week, with most of the UK under a very slack flow very cold night time temperatures are a high probability. I wouldn't be surprised if many areas in the midlands and central northern england dropped to -5.c, and parts of Scottish highlands getting down to -10.c, even in the major towns and cities temperature will be quite cold around -3.c to -4.c I would of thought. Also fog could also be an issue which would hold back the temperatures considerably, with even freezing fog been an issue in some areas.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

There could be some quite harsh night time frosts this week, with most of the UK under a very slack flow very cold night time temperatures are a high probability. I wouldn't be surprised if many areas in the midlands and central northern england dropped to -5.c, and parts of Scottish highlands getting down to -10.c, even in the major towns and cities temperature will be quite cold around -3.c to -4.c I would of thought. Also fog could also be an issue which would hold back the temperatures considerably, with even freezing fog been an issue in some areas.

Really, that depends on skies clearing, if they do, your predictions will be close, if they don't clear, it will be warmer.

I think the models have given us a real mixed bag, they sem to me to be hedging their bets, and every time I post I seem to say that FI is not very far away, T72 to T96, so things can still change.

Remember Models are just that, Models, Real life is what happens, and we've all seen the FAX charts are a lot closer than the models

[MKN]

Seems to me that the gfs is continuing to upgrade the potential snow between now and friday with each run at the minute. This week could turn out quite good for a few. its beyond this where i feel we either end up either very cold or very mild.

[robert]

Great looking 18z with lot's of snow potential especially from mid week.

[mountain shadow]

Seems to me that the gfs is continuing to upgrade the potential snow between now and friday with each run at the minute. This week could turn out quite good for a few. its beyond this where i feel we either end up either very cold or very mild.

Certainly seems that way. Widespread snow showers by Friday if it verifies.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100215/18/96/prectypeuktopo.png

Lets hope this is a trend to push the trough into the continent..

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100215/18/96/airpressure.png

talk about potential

Edited February 15, 2010 by mountain shadow

[January Snowstorm]

Yes the models are trending colder and colder with every run, inevitably drier too though!

Certainly the gfs ppn charts look very dry with so much low pressure around. How right they are, time will tell, though I must say I find them very accurate of late.

For the Irish amongst us it's looking quite tasty after Wed, though tomorrow has downgraded in both ppn and temps

[mountain shadow]

Yes the models are trending colder and colder with every run, inevitably drier too though!

Certainly the gfs ppn charts look very dry with so much low pressure around. How right they are, time will tell, though I must say I find them very accurate of late.

For the Irish amongst us it's looking quite tasty after Wed, though tomorrow has downgraded in both ppn and temps

Fantastic looking run this for the Irish contingent. Shovels at the ready. Really need to keep pushing everything east.

[Cheese Rice]

Very good GFs run so far, the whole of the UK in the cold air by Friday. By Sunday a very interesting setup happens, a low approaching, this would bring boatloads of snow to some places and rain for others. ATM the models are showing the main risk for Ireland/Northern England and Scotland, but this will change nearer the time. I would say the main risk is unlikely for Scotland, I think again the models are underestimating the high so the snow risk could be further south so Wales/Midlands/Northern England and parts of Ireland are possibly at risk for some disruptive snowfall.

Also the much touted "mild" air doesn't make its appearance, as expected the cold air is over the UK. Only nearer FI is the breakdown shown, which is with every run been pushed further and further back.

Edited February 15, 2010 by 10123

[kold weather]

Disagree.

Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

I know others have picked this post apart but with regards to the week coming up, some parts of Scotland could well quite easily see 15-25cms over the next 36hrs and there could be even more depending on how the period between Thurs and Sat develops.

A summery of the 18z run is wet and cool in the south, cold and snowy further north. The 18z GFS shows a very interesting evolution that could give good falls to the north of England and Scotland and is worth watching as well.

[damianslaw]

Scotland, Cumbria and NE England look like being locked in a cold and wintry theme for the foreseeable future, uppers here will be favourable for low level snow especially under any heavy precipitation, the risk obviously greater the further north you go, with NE Scotland potentially in for some significant snow over the next few days. An unstable polar airstream and evaporative cooling = snow in the north.

The colder air looks like gradually moving south by Friday, and the weekend is looking increasingly colder with some appreciable cold uppers entering Scotland as we beging to pull in some colder arctic air thanks to the low finally moving away to the south east..

Thereafter, I think we need to look to the NW not the SW, another shortwave feature looks like developing over Iceland bringing in another low pressure on a similiar track to this one, however, unlike today, there will be colder uppers in place and this looks like bringing a potent polar blast to north western parts. I wouldn't be surprised if Feb ends up with a northerly, heights look like staying very high over Greenland and the jet will stay southerly, no return of the atlantic just yet..

[Freezing-Point]

This is the model output discussion so....

The 18z in deepest darkest fantasy land (T+384) brings an absolute cracker... Heights rising to the north bringing -10 uppers being driven down from gales from the NE. That would give the daffs a shock.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

This is the model output discussion so....

The 18z in deepest darkest fantasy land (T+384) brings an absolute cracker... Heights rising to the north bringing -10 uppers being driven down from gales from the NE. That would give the daffs a shock.

You've stolen my chart from the regional thread!

Nice though isn't it!

And who knows it may even happen....!?

[SP1986]

The GFS at the moment is clearly struggling to handle the situation. I have no idea where it will end up, it will continue to evolve so guessing what it will be in a weeks time is anyones guess!

At the moment it's heading toward the cold outlook however I don't think it's settled.

[Freezing-Point]

You've stolen my chart from the regional thread!

Nice though isn't it!

And who knows it may even happen....!?

We should have had something similar to that last week, but the high seemed to like Scotland too much and all the cold was driven down into Spain. My Dad is in Portugal and says they have had snow there.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

We should have had something similar to that last week, but the high seemed to like Scotland too much and all the cold was driven down into Spain. My Dad is in Portugal and says they have had snow there.

I must admit I did ok out of that. A bit like some of the conditions you had at New Years. It was great reading your local thread and the fun you were having then - a good taster of the same here early hours last Thurs!

Back more on topic - a kitchen sink of everything from the models over the coming days with slack low pressure drifting around. Sound churlish to say it, but would make better Spring mix weather. Bring back the north sea snow machine!

Edited February 15, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection