Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Lets see how this all plays out, because the forecast from derek was very different to the weather we had today, wintry showers for the rest of the week and weekend.

Just goes to show how quickly things can change!

I hope there isn't a huge change, 5-10cm he said for SE wales looking good.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Had heavy snow here this moring for a time that give a dusting.

SE Wales stands a good chance of seeing a period of snow tomorrow.

GFS 06Z shows the precipitation running up allong SE Wales, SW England and the Midlands:

http://charts.netwea...6/30/ukprec.png

Upper air temps over SE Wales are about -4C with the 528 DAM line shown over us, so quite good for snow:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs302.gif

http://charts.netwea...hgt500-1000.png

Dew points on the the NAE are around -1C

http://expert.weathe...021812_1706.gif

With precipitation turning to snow over SE Wales: http://expert.weathe...021812_1706.gif

Im curious how far North that front will come, slightly further north would probably put South Wales at risk of Snow. Anyway will see what the 12z shows.

See the Warnings/Advisories for Wales here: http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited February 17, 2010 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[keithlucky]

meto have the warning up from 0600 in the morning

Latest forecaste about 8am cardiff snow will reach you, snowed swansea valley had about a inch wasent forecaste but gp on forum said snow further west,cardiff seems to be the furthest west this front is reaching bordering wales hereford should see 10cms thursdays with west midlands 15cms.

Edited February 17, 2010 by keithlucky

[Snow Obsession]

In Brecon on hols at the moment - was lovely to see so much snow this morning. Nothing has settled on the roads at this level but a bit on the grass etc, however it's very pretty on the hills and mountains all around. Looking forward to whatever tomorrow may bring - would be such a tragedy to be snowed in as we're due to go home on Friday!!

[andymusic]

In Brecon on hols at the moment - was lovely to see so much snow this morning. Nothing has settled on the roads at this level but a bit on the grass etc, however it's very pretty on the hills and mountains all around. Looking forward to whatever tomorrow may bring - would be such a tragedy to be snowed in as we're due to go home on Friday!!

don't think you'll be snowed in, but a couple more cms is certainly possible depending on where the front ends up

[keithlucky]

don't think you'll be snowed in, but a couple more cms is certainly possible depending on where the front ends up

Pity andy snow reaching wrong time of day for south east wales more than likely be wet snow, reaching midland after dark perfect for them.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Metoffice forecast for Wales:

Headline:

Cold and unsettled, with sleet or snow in places.

This Evening and Tonight:

Rain or sleet, with hill snow, across some eastern and northern parts of Wales will clear away overnight and allow frost to develop in many places, along with some patchy fog. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Thursday:

Bright for awhile before it clouds over generally, with sleet and wet snow spreading northwards to reach much of southeastern and central Wales by dusk, and turning increasingly to snow. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Updated: 1558 on Wed 17 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Also looking at the latest NAE and the 12Z GFS it looks like the front is further North.

http://expert.weathe...021818_1712.gif <NAE @ 30h

http://charts.netwea...2/30/ukprec.png < GFS 12z 30h

Again SE Wales looking ok for a spell of Snow also the risk of snow for the higher ground of S.Wales if the front comes this far North.

[andymusic]

Pity andy snow reaching wrong time of day for south east wales more than likely be wet snow, reaching midland after dark perfect for them.

Possibly - GFS 12z has the snow coming in between 6am and 12am and temps are pretty low even around 12 midday - nothing is nailed on until it happens - things might not happen exactly the way it's forecast - see what tonight's 18z has to say before tomorrow's events

Edited February 17, 2010 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Metoffice forecast for Wales:

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Also looking at the latest NAE and the 12Z GFS it looks like the front is further North.

http://expert.weathe...021818_1712.gif <NAE @ 30h

http://charts.netwea...2/30/ukprec.png < GFS 12z 30h

Again SE Wales looking ok for a spell of Snow also the risk of snow for the higher ground of S.Wales if the front comes this far North.

Strange the met jamie news 24 sleet snow reaching cardiff 8am met online snow reaching at dusk same people massive time difference why?

[andymusic]

GFS is also keeping temps low all day under the front which should produce wintry/snow conditions for most of the day by the looks of it

[Marcus_surfer]

Heavy showers near SW England now, if they continue to make progress they will be here by 10PM

[andymusic]

Heavy showers near SW England now, if they continue to make progress they will be here by 10PM

I think those are what's lined up for the morning - but don't quote me on that! - they are fairly slow moving - they are very close to the centre of a low pressure out there - so are circling that "eye" then - you can check that out though by having a look at something like Sat24 or the meto's satellite pics

Edited February 17, 2010 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

Just seen we have now been included in the watch for a possible 5-10cm of snow tomorrow! looking better for here atm, hope it happens :wacko:

[andymusic]

Rather interesting "Blob" coming into Cardiff shortly - sleet/rain/snow mmmmmmmm - who knows?

[Jamie.]

woke up to a fine covering of snow this morning on the grass and roofs.

it was so wet/damp though so didn't last long.

Today has been drizzly.

[kold weather]

Rather interesting "Blob" coming into Cardiff shortly - sleet/rain/snow mmmmmmmm - who knows?

Its not bad looking at the radar, looks like a little of showers have developed in the last 2hrs or so, with another cell going up to the NW Gloucester, I have to admit I'm quite curious as to what is coming out of that system, esp a little inland away from the coast.

[Cymro]

Looks like im a little to far west for any snow to affect me tomorrow I just hope we have a change in Wind direction and my parcel did come thankfully

[nomad098]

Rather interesting "Blob" coming into Cardiff shortly - sleet/rain/snow mmmmmmmm - who knows?

Well I can confirm moderate very cold rain might do better inland

[andymusic]

Looks like im a little to far west for any snow to affect me tomorrow I just hope we have a change in Wind direction and my parcel did come thankfully

More to do with the track of the low pressure as the front that is coming off it is one of it's "arms" - meto thinks the low will track across the country from west to east - flinging the front around it to effect South East/Mid Wales with snow - as the low is moving away from Wales - unfortunately it will take the said front with it but - you never know - the low centre may track in a different way - has been known - and then that presents everyone with a totally different set up - a surprise could always be in store!

[Elnonio]

Rather interesting "Blob" coming into Cardiff shortly - sleet/rain/snow mmmmmmmm - who knows?

I know - Rain

[Jamie.]

BBC online (although very inaccurate for days 4&5) forecast heavy snow Monday.

[J10]

A nice dusting of snow on all surfaces with some heavy snow around 8am, all gone now but nice to see.

There we were last week saying the potential of snow, and the MOD thread dismissed it.

Saying that wasn't really expecting lying snow. For tomorrow going back to last winter there low pressure systems form the S/SW bumping into the embedded cold where quite often not modelled exactly and were sometimes too far east or too far west. So while Eastern Wales is in the firing line, don't be at all surprised to get snow much further west, or perhaps further east than expected.

Very much looking forward to Jamie excellent NAE updates later, and I will do the update for the NMM as soon as the 18HZ comes out, which last night was aorund 11.30pm. This may give a much better idea as to where the potential snow is for tomorrow.

[andymusic]

BBC online (although very inaccurate for days 4&5) forecast heavy snow Monday.

GFS 12z is showing snow showers - but all could change as it has been doing with this current set up - currently only look about two days ahead for accurate forecasting - anything after that could happen but is subject to change

Tomorrow at 6pm

[Jayfromcardiff]

GFS 12z is showing snow showers - but all could change as it has been doing with this current set up - currently only look about two days ahead for accurate forecasting - anything after that could happen but is subject to change

Tomorrow at 6pm

Any idea when the snow will start?.....so i know when to get up tomorrow mate.

[andymusic]

Any idea when the snow will start?.....so i know when to get up tomorrow mate.

shouldn't be too early a start - probably around 8am - can't be absolutely sure mind - I think it'll be a little later than the front that came in this morning - but certainly if it's early - any time after 6am