Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[pascalsbongo]

Boys, boys put your handbags down! I think what pascals was trying to say is that this is a much more relaxed forum than some of the others which cannot be named! All the talk of LP, HP, FI, UKMO, GFS 12Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz - does tend to leave you a little bit lightheaded particularly when it does not actually transpire!!! Actual data is good, it gives us a picture of what's happening around Wales and what might come. That's my opinion anyway

E x

Correct ,that is what i was trying to say.

When did i ever say 99% on here were incredibly boring?

Lol talk about a play on words.

tee hee hee.

1.There is information which most like to look at (note i did not say 99%).

2.There are the more technical parts that which many do like to look at and also many do not.

3.Then there are the real dull technical jargon posts, which only a select few like to look at.

Then there are the additional posts like Andys which make it worthwile reading this forum.

The additional posts fill the voids of when its not snowing, and they keep this message board ticking over.

If the debate is not kept alive by light hearted interjections, then the debate dies.

Rather like marmite,love it or hate it ,Andy music is the main reason this message board is as active as it is.

Sorry to compare you to marmite Andy lol

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The NAE and the GFS are a major upgrade for tomorrow in terms of precipitation amounts. Both have the heavier precipiation further west.

With the 12Hz run first. A lot of similarities to the snow events last winter, and also that event in Febraury 2007. There could be a lot of snow in places, and not just to high ground.

Latest NAE and GFS charts have precipitation hitting as far west as Swansea.

I agree, precipitation amounts have been increased on the latest runs, upper air temps arnt to bad and gradually get colder as the low heads off so it could well be rain turning to Snow:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021821_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

It still has time to change so precipitation intensity could be braught further West again or shifted away more to the East

The shift west in precipitation intensity can be seen quite well on the GFS runs

GFS 12Z: http://charts.netwea...2/27/ukprec.png

GFS 18Z: http://charts.netwea...8/21/ukprec.png

[alijoe]

I think south wales has a very good chance of snow to low levels! Local forecast still seems confident for the west country to see anything from 2-10cm somerset/bristol/glouc so I think you could have some fun and games in your region.

Welcome Mullender, nice to see you in the south wales thread, I usually visit yours. lol Finger crossed we will all get some tommorow. I really would be a lovely end to a great winter and we could not possibly ask for more (but we probably will lol).

[Cymro]

I agree, precipitation amounts have been increased on the latest runs, upper air temps arnt to bad and gradually get colder as the low heads off so it could well be rain turning to Snow:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021821_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

It still has time to change so precipitation intensity could be braught further West again or shifted away more to the East

The shift west in precipitation intensity can be seen quite well on the GFS runs

GFS 12Z: http://charts.netwea...2/27/ukprec.png

GFS 18Z: http://charts.netwea...8/21/ukprec.png

Ive a feeling about this and i really dont know why i never normaly do things off the top of my head but i really do have a feeling that this is going to be an event for many in Wales and alot more than previously stated.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Ive a feeling about this and i really dont know why i never normaly do things off the top of my head but i really do have a feeling that this is going to be an event for many in Wales and alot more than previously stated.

Yep i have more optimism after seeing the ppn intensity moved west.

[andymusic]

Thanks for the compliment Pascals (me and marmite don't get on mind you) - I enjoy posting my thoughts about the weather on here - ever since the dawn of the net - all the extra info - models - lightning detectors - temp info - etc etc etc makes the weather an even more intriuging hobby - I know I might go on about snow a bit - but this winter has been exceptional for it - and this thread only exists really to talk about the cold weather or lack of it! - as I've said before - in the summer I will be happily discussing storm prospects - I suppose I'm a bit of an extreme weather nut - like a lot of us - we enjoy pushing things to it's nth degree.

[alijoe]

Well, I agreed with you this morning and I agree with you now. I knew what you were saying and I find it hard to thinkother people could have taken offence to it. But hey, winter weather seems to bring out all sorts of things And Andy Marmite is my hero (especially if the snow comes off for me tommorow. lol).

[andymusic]

Well, I agreed with you this morning and I agree with you now. I knew what you were saying and I find it hard to thinkother people could have taken offence to it. But hey, winter weather seems to bring out all sorts of things And Andy Marmite is my hero (especially if the snow comes off for me tommorow. lol).

Hi Ali - thanks for that - it's looking good for us in South/South East Wales tomorrow - so enjoy your snow babe. Cold is digging in and there might be more to come overnight friday into saturday morning too

[alijoe]

Hi Ali - thanks for that - it's looking good for us in South/South East Wales tomorrow - so enjoy your snow babe. Cold is digging in and there might be more to come overnight friday into saturday morning too

Your very welcome x Yes it is looking good at the moment and could be an interesting weekend. Fingers crossed.

[J10]

THE NMM is out and continues the western encroachment of tomorrows precipitation.

In both cases the 18HZ is further west.

The NMM isn't that generous with the actual snow chances though. But with this level of precipitation and winds from the NW, much of this will be of snow especially inland, and probably over any hill.

Evaporational Cooling is also looking to be our friend tomorrow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Could be a good day tomorrow then snow-wise.

[Cymro]

Every one is ignoring me haha no but I said earlier I had a hung things would shift more westwards and i was right, come on phase one nailed lets get to phase two where we get more snow and a certainty of it:P

[J10]

Every one is ignoring me haha no but I said earlier I had a hung things would shift more westwards and i was right, come on phase one nailed lets get to phase two where we get more snow and a certainty of it:P

To be honest I tend to agree with you. Looking very promising for tomorrow.

[Cymro]

To be honest I tend to agree with you. Looking very promising for tomorrow.

I've seen this before and ok that doesn't hold much science but sometimes you know? maybe its the snow we had this morning that came from nowhere that has had a positive effect on me who knows? but I've a feeling places as far west as Carmarthen will be affected by this with the heaviest area of snow between Swansea and Newport. Im not saying the imediate coast will see snow will pretty similar to today i reckon but a lot more favourable with cooler dp and upper air temps etc, places above about 80meters should see settling snow imo places below will see sum but it wont be as substantial as higher ground.

Edited February 17, 2010 by adamjones416

[Jayfromcardiff]

I've seen this before and ok that doesn't hold much science but sometimes you know? maybe its the snow we had this morning that came from nowhere that has had a positive effect on me who knows? but I've a feeling places as far west as Carmarthen will be affected by this with the heaviest area of snow between Swansea and Newport. Im not saying the imediate coast will see snow will pretty similar to today i reckon but a lot more favourable with cooler dp and upper air temps etc, places above about 80meters should see settling snow imo places below will see sum but it wont be as substantial as higher ground.

I agree.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Every one is ignoring me haha no but I said earlier I had a hung things would shift more westwards and i was right, come on phase one nailed lets get to phase two where we get more snow and a certainty of it:P

It looks promising, and its good to see the NMM also agrees with this shift West.

BBC forecast not to bad- showed snow for parts of South Wales- heaviest over the SE- even some over Swansea but with a mix of rain. Will check again in the morning anyway, good luck everyone.

[Cymro]

It looks promising, and its good to see the NMM also agrees with this shift West.

BBC forecast not to bad- showed snow for parts of South Wales- heaviest over the SE- even some over Swansea but with a mix of rain. Will check again in the morning anyway, good luck everyone.

I wouldnt use the bbc weather forecast with the maps if i were you I find them most inaccurate but its a nowcasting situation tomorrow.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I wouldnt use the bbc weather forecast with the maps if i were you I find them most inaccurate but its a nowcasting situation tomorrow.

Yup it is going to come down to nowcasting, i would favour the shift west, the latest runs have gone with it and also the Metoffice have advisories out for areas such as Neath & Bridgend. So the potential has been there.

Heavy showers visible to the SW on the radar: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[kold weather]

Yep another westward shift from the 18z, once again the NW section of the front is the place to watch, during the day as the front strengthens we should get increasing reports as Evap cooling occurs...

I am a little wary though that the models were rather too low with the dew points yesterday and thus this needs to be quite a very close eye on indeed IMO...however conditions probably will be on the right side of marginal apart from possibly the peak afternoon hours where the snow line probably will retreat to higher ground.

So keep an eye on the overnight temps and dew points and see how close they match with the models, as its a marginal set-up you want to see them pretty much in good agreement, if not then it may end up wrong side of marginal. Still very exciting times, on higher ground no doubt IMO of 3-5cms being probable, on lower ground and all depends on how heavy it is and where exactly the front sets itself up.

[BranMan]

I'm expecting heavy snowfall tomorrow and according to everything I've looked at could last for a good 12 hours....giving us anything between 4 inches to 8 inches....and temps of 1C maximum

Upper Cwmbran 150m asl 5 miles SE of Newport

[Marcus_surfer]

Seems further west at the moment, the valleys will do well out of this and even lower levels too, if the ppn is heavy enough

[andymusic]

Good morning - before the fun begins - and it's about to - precip just coming into south wales now - the GFS 00z WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the cold and snow has now been extended right through into March as some have been talking about elsewhere. This weather does not want to give up - so this is gonna become the norm for now - any ideas of spring - forget it - the groundhog was right!

ENJOY YOUR SNOW FOLKS

[BranMan]

Temp 1.4C outside...cold and damp outside, no frost just raw...

Interesting day ahead...expecting a decent duming of the white stuff lasting 10 hrs at least later....

Cwmbran 150m asl ( west pontnewydd ) 5 miles east of newport

[andymusic]

SNOWING IN PONTY

[CRACKPOT]

The lastes Beeb chart with Carol show the snow only clipping the far South East of Wales - there is a definite north eastward push on this if that is correct and will take our snow away from us - boo hoo !!

JK