Model Chat And Moods

[DAVID SNOW]

That was your initial post, but while it might have been meant light-heartedly it was something of a jibe at northerners, and not fully accurate because it's not quite that clear cut as some parts of the "north" (depending on where you define "north") get more storms than parts of the south.

That was the second post and it came across as pretty condescending.

In fairness if you substituted "Wash" with, say, "Teeside" then the generalisation would be a pretty good one.

Wrong, its called...... Banter.

My FIRST post as you have agreed was a generalisation, but was also correct.

Could you leave this be now, and just pretend you never replied to my first post.

If someone from the north east posted on here that they get more snow than southerners, i would say yep, thats true. I would also realise that sometimes we would see more snow,but by and large their statement would be correct.

[Thundery wintry showers]

That post comes across as saying "I was right and you were wrong, now can we end this?". The reason why I criticised the first post was because of its context- it was addressed to someone from West Yorkshire who was in a discussion with someone from Portsmouth about how Portsmouth gets less snow. Regardless of the merits of generalising "us southerners get more storms", it doesn't apply to West Yorkshire vs Portsmouth- if anything W Yorks is the more thunder-prone of the two regions. Had it been comparing with somewhere in south-east England, where thunder frequencies are generally higher, it's unlikely that I'd have commented on the post.

I think some of us were also doubting what north-south arguments/discussions/banter were doing in the Model Moods thread anyway!

Ironically there is going to be a north-south divide over the coming week, but a three-way one, between bright showery weather in the N, dull wet weather in the S, and frontal sleet/snow in between. That frontal boundary will vary in northward extent over the coming days. It isn't set to be a classic 70s/80s style snow battleground because of the relatively marginal airmass to the north, but there will still be snow for some.

[doublebarrel]

now children, i for one will be glad when the sun shines, then you can all go outside and play !! this winter this forum has had that much bickering and kid like remarks it just ain`t worth reading somedays.who cares who has more snow the north or south have you forgot England is an island . ok Britain is an island. it aint that big !! if we are having snow somewhere then say it, not bloody call the place, we are supposedly weather watchers together enjoying it not fighting over it

[DAVID SNOW]

That post comes across as saying "I was right and you were wrong, now can we end this?". The reason why I criticised the first post was because of its context- it was addressed to someone from West Yorkshire who was in a discussion with someone from Portsmouth about how Portsmouth gets less snow. Regardless of the merits of generalising "us southerners get more storms", it doesn't apply to West Yorkshire vs Portsmouth- if anything W Yorks is the more thunder-prone of the two regions. Had it been comparing with somewhere in south-east England, where thunder frequencies are generally higher, it's unlikely that I'd have commented on the post.

I think some of us were also doubting what north-south arguments/discussions/banter were doing in the Model Moods thread anyway!

Ironically there is going to be a north-south divide over the coming week, but a three-way one, between bright showery weather in the N, dull wet weather in the S, and frontal sleet/snow in between. That frontal boundary will vary in northward extent over the coming days. It isn't set to be a classic 70s/80s style snow battleground because of the relatively marginal airmass to the north, but there will still be snow for some.

Youre first paragraph,

The poster from West Yorkshire would be well within their rights to pull me up on my post if they thought I was butting in to a private conversation, and I would say they are more than capable of doing so. Perhaps though they took my post in the light hearted way it was meant(a bit more thick skinned than us soft sotherners )

I have again looked at the Met Office Thunder Annual Average Maps and they clearly show(as you have brought it up)that Portsmouth does have more thunder days than West Yorkshire,so I will stick with their maps/drawings and not yours if thats ok?

Your second paragraph interests me, I thought this thread was here do talk about all types of weather and the mood the weather may create. If this is so then a north/south debate is very relevent as weather types can be very different north to south in the same day.

Your third paragraph contradicts your second,you cant use irony as an excuse.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have again looked at the Met Office Thunder Annual Average Maps and they clearly show(as you have brought it up)that Portsmouth does have more thunder days than West Yorkshire,so I will stick with their maps/drawings and not yours if thats ok?

There are people from the Met Office itself who acknowledge that those thunder maps are not as detailed as their other ones, and their 1990-97 ATD maps showed a distribution more akin to my drawing- as did an article back in the early 2000s in Weather on UK and Europe thunder frequency.

If those maps didn't show what you wanted them to, I doubt you would be citing them as the authoritative source above all others (i.e. confirmation bias).

I'm an ex-northerner as it happens.

My third paragraph does not contradict the second, it is referring to a north-south divide in the current model outputs and not a north-south divide in something else.

[DAVID SNOW]

There are people from the Met Office itself who acknowledge that those thunder maps are not as detailed as their other ones, and their 1990-97 ATD maps showed a distribution more akin to my drawing- as did an article back in the early 2000s in Weather on UK and Europe thunder frequency.

If those maps didn't show what you wanted them to, I doubt you would be citing them as the authoritative source above all others (i.e. confirmation bias).

I'm an ex-northerner as it happens.

My third paragraph does not contradict the second, it is referring to a north-south divide in the current model outputs and not a north-south divide in something else.

Firstly, are you not able to reply to all aspects of my post?

Secondly, can you show me the Meto more accurate, updated thunder day maps?

you state you are a northener... I am shocked

A north south divide has always been the case in weather terms,and has nothing to do with current model outputs as you say.

so, as i have said too many times i will go by the maps the Meto have online today.

Making your own maps does not count

[camperstron]

The christmas pudding im afraid, people dont know what its like to be cold. I was born in 1944 and the winters then it seemed to me were severe. Yes even in my location in Poole in Dorset. As one of eight children we had to be content with a paraffin heater strategically placed in the hall for warmth at night. Newspaper stuffed in cracks in the floorboards to keep out the draught. Ice that formed on the inside of the windows when you awoke in the morning. All huddled around a measly coal fire in the evenings. And yet we were happy with our lot and never complained because everyone else was in the same boat. People talk about the cold winter of late being superb but as a snow lover it hasnt even come close to some of my memories as a child. It seemed a magical time when just like the xmas carol good King Wenceslas the snow really was lying deep crisp and even and the frosts were certainly cruel. I remember the crunch under foot when you walked on the frost covered snow, the icicles on the trees that shone under the street lamps. You may laugh when you read this and if they were the good old days then you can stick em where the sun doesnt shine lol. But then I was fortunate enough to remember 63 when you were driving through tunnels of snow because there was no where else for the ploughs to put the snow. So when people talk of this being a memorable winter my reply is it doesnt even come close. Dont really know where to place this post but if others out there are remotely interested perhaps we could share some of our memories of cold winters gone by.

One of my neighbours was telling me about the winter of '47. He was a boy and his house was on a slight hill. One night they went to bed - there was no snow. They woke up in the morning to a huuuuge amount and the wind had drifted it all the way up the back of the house!

For my region we haven't really got anywhere near, actually nowhere near, that level of snow this winter.......yet!

[John London]

Reading the Model Output Discussion today there appears to be a hint of desperation creeping into the posts from the cold and snowy brigade.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Reading the Model Output Discussion today there appears to be a hint of desperation creeping into the posts from the cold and snowy brigade.

Only from those in the south

[kent]

Only from those in the south

Hope you get snow up to your sporran. Personally I want the spring to arrive.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hope you get snow up to your sporran. Personally I want the spring to arrive.

Quite funny because I'm a piper so do regularly wear the sporran! It was perhaps a bit of a tongue-in-cheek comment but basically if we can draw a map of the tendency to hopecast snowfall from the 12Zs....

[kent]

Quite funny because I'm a piper so do regularly wear the sporran! It was perhaps a bit of a tongue-in-cheek comment but basically if we can draw a map of the tendency to hopecast snowfall from the 12Zs....

Cool. I love the sound of the bagpipes. My brother in law is a Scot and we always have a good laugh at the expense of each other. All good fun. We have had some wonderful holidays in Fort William. The atmosphere in the bars at night are second to none.

[John London]

The end of another 12 hour day at the coal face. I think the game is finally up for the extreme winter weather "Beast From The East" brigade. Now heading home through the snow free streets to my house that hasn't been snowed under. Oh well there is always the next model run.

[Thundersquall]

Erm - Next Friday - Wow!

If that comes off then we'd better batten down the hatches!

Edited February 19, 2010 by Thundersquall

[Cheese Rice]

These lows better shift further north, I'm alway on the northern most extent of every low

[James M]

Part of me wants to be greedy and for things to be shunted slightly further north so the North of England bares the brunt, but then I know down in the Midlands you haven't as much snow this year..hmm we'll see

[Severe Blizzard]

Trouble is the "offing" is Cold rain. Apart from a couple of days the last two weeks here has been bone chillin cold with rain and a few flakes of snow at times. Imo the worst winter weather imaginable especially if you happen to work outside. The ground is totally sodden in this area atm. The current "pattern" has become tedious, with another week of the same ( at least ) to follow.

This winter has been colder than for many a year but for most parts of the SE has not resulted in any memorable snow events. Time to turn the page onto Spring with better hopes for "snowmageddon" next Winter methinks.

I know what you mean.

Working outside is not much fun with all this cold damp stuff.

I do not relish another week of cancelled outdoor leisure activities - another wet and miserable Monday, which is the only day in the week available for my cycling activities - and having to work in freezing cold rain on the other days.

It is a real kick in the teeth when this part of the S.E. gets rain and the Midlands get yet another snowfest while there is no hope in Hell of anything worthwhile happening down here. I would even prefer a return to mild S.W. dross next week - for all areas - than having to go through another cycle of marginality letdown and the S.E. / Central Southern location happens to be the area to miss out again. Roll on spring and the Bartlett!

However, if these current models could change and the current feeling of the Midland snowfest / S.E. rainfest being written in stone changes to something which actually favours the S.E. for heavy snow and a historic or epic snow event then bring it on!

The south has done well in other epic snow events that have pasted the Midlands, such as 25th April 1908.

Hope this post doesn't offend any readers, but I am getting pretty fed up with missing out on the big events and seeing all this promise and anticipitation of a week to rival the worst weeks of January 1984, January 7th 1986, December 8th 1990 and late February 1994 (for my area) does not bode well for morale.

The problem with this winter has been that there have been far too many 'wrong side of marginal' type events in this area and disapointment has been high, especially this month with all the promise of the severe cold two weeks ago being put back on every run. I have never seen so many days when rain has fallen at 0.5 to 3 deg.C as during this winter. I'm surprised we haven't had a major freezing rain event this year with the way the situations have panned out.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I know what you mean.

Working outside is not much fun with all this cold damp stuff.

I do not relish another week of cancelled outdoor leisure activities - another wet and miserable Monday, which is the only day in the week available for my cycling activities - and having to work in freezing cold rain on the other days.

It is a real kick in the teeth when this part of the S.E. gets rain and the Midlands get yet another snowfest while there is no hope in Hell of anything worthwhile happening down here. I would even prefer a return to mild S.W. dross next week - for all areas - than having to go through another cycle of marginality letdown and the S.E. / Central Southern location happens to be the area to miss out again. Roll on spring and the Bartlett!

However, if these current models could change and the current feeling of the Midland snowfest / S.E. rainfest being written in stone changes to something which actually favours the S.E. for heavy snow and a historic or epic snow event then bring it on!

The south has done well in other epic snow events that have pasted the Midlands, such as 25th April 1908.

Hope this post doesn't offend any readers, but I am getting pretty fed up with missing out on the big events and seeing all this promise and anticipitation of a week to rival the worst weeks of January 1984, January 7th 1986, December 8th 1990 and late February 1994 (for my area) does not bode well for morale.

The problem with this winter has been that there have been far too many 'wrong side of marginal' type events in this area and disapointment has been high, especially this month with all the promise of the severe cold two weeks ago being put back on every run. I have never seen so many days when rain has fallen at 0.5 to 3 deg.C as during this winter. I'm surprised we haven't had a major freezing rain event this year with the way the situations have panned out.

Fair enough. I am in a similar boat with the current output, except instead of lacking the uppers, we appear to be lacking the precipitation for the most part. I'd rather have most areas seeing a good inch or two than a large area other than here getting tonnes with us getting nothing, though this is just my fairly selfish adolescent opinion!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I saw your status update and I fully understand it- when I compared the GFS 18Z with the other runs it was clearly a slight downgrade for SE Scotland but, on the other hand, a vast upgrade for nearly everywhere else!

The snowiest case scenario for the UK as a whole would be to have the lows tracking across the south, and disturbances giving widespread snow showers and longer outbreaks of snow for the north delivered by a combination of NW/N/NE winds. There is always position marginality with that because whenever the snow reaches the Midlands it typically turns back to rain near the south coast, but that can't be helped in this setup unfortunately. After all, I believe most of Scotland got quite a lot of snow, mostly in the form of showers, around 20-23 December. The lows tracking further north means that Scotland gets lots of snow while most of England and Wales ends up dull cold and damp with outbreaks of rain.

[kent]

I agree with the above posts. Here in Poole dorset we had a measly 1cm of snow earlier this year which equalled the same amount last year. In fact I cant recall more than that in the last 25 years here so our expectations are not exactly optimistic. So many near misses and non events. Being a weather buff and once believing in the model output I used to inform my friends of the possibility of snow only to be treated with derision when it never verified, now when they ask I just say no chance lol.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Actually, thinking more hard about it, I've come to the conclusion that the snowiest possible evolution out of this would have a few days of repeated heavy snowfalls for the Midlands and NE England, snow showers for Scotland and mainly rain in the south, followed by the whole lot buckling southwards (so the frontal zone retreats south and gives southern England a dumping) and then a north-easterly with sunshine and snow showers.

However with a west based negative NAO the last part of that doesn't look very likely at the moment.

[kent]

Actually, thinking more hard about it, I've come to the conclusion that the snowiest possible evolution out of this would have a few days of repeated heavy snowfalls for the Midlands and NE England, snow showers for Scotland and mainly rain in the south, followed by the whole lot buckling southwards (so the frontal zone retreats south and gives southern England a dumping) and then a north-easterly with sunshine and snow showers.

However with a west based negative NAO the last part of that doesn't look very likely at the moment.

Thanks for trying anyway lol.

[Icebox]

I know what you mean.

Working outside is not much fun with all this cold damp stuff.

I do not relish another week of cancelled outdoor leisure activities - another wet and miserable Monday, which is the only day in the week available for my cycling activities - and having to work in freezing cold rain on the other days.

It is a real kick in the teeth when this part of the S.E. gets rain and the Midlands get yet another snowfest while there is no hope in Hell of anything worthwhile happening down here. I would even prefer a return to mild S.W. dross next week - for all areas - than having to go through another cycle of marginality letdown and the S.E. / Central Southern location happens to be the area to miss out again. Roll on spring and the Bartlett!

However, if these current models could change and the current feeling of the Midland snowfest / S.E. rainfest being written in stone changes to something which actually favours the S.E. for heavy snow and a historic or epic snow event then bring it on!

The south has done well in other epic snow events that have pasted the Midlands, such as 25th April 1908.

Hope this post doesn't offend any readers, but I am getting pretty fed up with missing out on the big events and seeing all this promise and anticipitation of a week to rival the worst weeks of January 1984, January 7th 1986, December 8th 1990 and late February 1994 (for my area) does not bode well for morale.

The problem with this winter has been that there have been far too many 'wrong side of marginal' type events in this area and disapointment has been high, especially this month with all the promise of the severe cold two weeks ago being put back on every run. I have never seen so many days when rain has fallen at 0.5 to 3 deg.C as during this winter. I'm surprised we haven't had a major freezing rain event this year with the way the situations have panned out.

Please correct me if I am wrong SB but I thought your neck of the woods did quite well early January, I'm sure Camberley had at least 15cms and that's not to far away from you is it?

[Bluebreezer54]

I agree with the above posts. Here in Poole dorset we had a measly 1cm of snow earlier this year which equalled the same amount last year. In fact I cant recall more than that in the last 25 years here so our expectations are not exactly optimistic. So many near misses and non events. Being a weather buff and once believing in the model output I used to inform my friends of the possibility of snow only to be treated with derision when it never verified, now when they ask I just say no chance lol.

I understand your dissapointment, though here we have had a reasonable amount of snow on several occasions this winter. Nothing like what some of the models, and some of the rampers were predicting I might add, but......as you say, so many near misses and non events.

As a relative newcomer ( to this website ) Im rapidly learning that its a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff. I doff my cap to the serious model watchers here who give some valuable input, and back it up with facts and reasons. I wont embarress them by naming them but I think most of us here can work out who they are.

It doesnt take long to recognise the rampers either, so I just skip past thier posts in the blink of an eye.

Overall though its been an interesting winter ( only 8 days of it left in official metreological terms I believe ) but there may yet be a sting in the tail. Chin up !

[LomondSnowstorm]

I saw your status update and I fully understand it- when I compared the GFS 18Z with the other runs it was clearly a slight downgrade for SE Scotland but, on the other hand, a vast upgrade for nearly everywhere else!

The snowiest case scenario for the UK as a whole would be to have the lows tracking across the south, and disturbances giving widespread snow showers and longer outbreaks of snow for the north delivered by a combination of NW/N/NE winds. There is always position marginality with that because whenever the snow reaches the Midlands it typically turns back to rain near the south coast, but that can't be helped in this setup unfortunately. After all, I believe most of Scotland got quite a lot of snow, mostly in the form of showers, around 20-23 December. The lows tracking further north means that Scotland gets lots of snow while most of England and Wales ends up dull cold and damp with outbreaks of rain.

Thanks. The 20th to 23rd were great, with loads of snow almost everywhere, but looking at the position of the low it is clear that the 18Z shows something very different to that http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091221.gif . http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

I wouldn't be at all unhappy with the second chart IF the uppers were around -8/-10, as it would surely be pretty snowy for central Scotland, but to me coastal marginality and convection being inhibited by slightly less cold uppers than that would mean a mainly dry prospect really. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png . This sums the 18Z up for me really http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/19/basis18/ukuk/weas/10022518_1918.gif . I do however realise what an exceptional prospect this is for the Midlands and much of northern England, so this is probably a case of IMBYism from myself for which I am sorry, but I do feel that it had to be recognised that it was not as straightfoward as a whole-nation upgrade - though it was actually closer to that than I initially realised!

LS