Model Chat And Moods

[Cheese Rice]

Norwich had less snow overall than Cleadon in Tyne and Wear during December and January (athough I was actually at Cleadon for some of the snowy spell). The 17th-23rd December and the 3rd-9th January all saw snow events in Norwich but Norwich itself missed a lot of the shower activity, eventually reaching an aggregate depth of 10-12cm early on the 9th. Then there was another 3-4cm from the northerly on the 29th/30th January.

In the meantime Cleadon had 25cm level snow on the 9th January and around 15cm (with drifts well in excess of 20cm) on the 30th. I missed out on those events, though my parents have photos of them. However, I was at Cleadon between 17 December and 5 January, so I experienced the snow squall overnight 17th/18th, the snow cover on Christmas Day, the thundersnow on New Year's Eve and the 10-12cm on New Year's Day there, so I've still probably had more than my fair share of exciting weather.

In February Norwich appears to have had rather more snow than most northern areas, including Cleadon, as it was caught full in the face by the north-easterly and associated heavy snow showers on the 10th February, giving about 3cm. There was snow here on the 3rd February, again on the 8th February, and again last evening, although on all three occasions the accumulations amounted to a short-lived dusting.

Thanks, sounds like you have done well.

[SP1986]

To be honest regaring thunder days local differences are quite poinient. Wirral for example gets very few thunder days, probably some of the least in the UK due to the unfavourable topography which tend to take the humidity needed for storm sustainability out of the equation. It is not the lack of heat that stops the area having thunder just the lack of relative humidity. Wirral is one of the warmest areas in NW England during the summer.

Like people often say it's the dewpoints that are the telling sign of thunderstorm potential in the summer.

Wirral itself may get about 2-3 thunder days a year on average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt it's as low as 2-3 days (partly going by your own reports) but it's true that there is considerable local variation that any generalised map (such as mine) will not capture adequately, and that the Wirral is indeed a localised area of low thunder frequency. Sadly I think data coverage is too sparse to generate a thoroughly detailed map of UK thunder frequency.

From my experiences in north-east England I recall Tynemouth being something of a no-convection/no-storm area, compared to both further north (towards Boulmer) and further south towards South Shields/Sunderland.

Since the Met Office has been using its ATD (Arrival Time Difference) system since 1990 I think by 2020 we may see the MetO provide the first really detailed maps of UK average thunder frequency as it will have a 30 year period to average ATD data over.

[DAVID SNOW]

Further to this, I've produced a hand-drawn map showing, from my knowledge, approximately what the average UK thunder frequency is:

Very pretty, but what have you done with the isle of white?They get a high number of thunder days :lol:

Any how, i just looked at Met Office Days of Thunder Annual Average map again and it does show more thunder days in southern england than northern england.

So i will stick with their findings, as they know a lot more than you or i.

[Thundery wintry showers]

On average southern Englannd does see more thunder-days than northern England- I haven't disputed that, just pointing out that applying it as a hard and fast rule is heavily flawed.

As it happens I've contacted people at the MetO about the thunder frequency maps and they agreed that unlike their other maps, the thunder ones are too generalised (there is only a sparse set of thunder data available). Note that the map I produced is based roughly on the distribution that the MetO's own 1990-97 ATD generated map showed, before they took it down (presumably because it covers only a short time period).

I'd be extremely surprised if Bristol had more thunder-days in a year, on average, than Manchester. Indeed, Manchester Airport's thunder frequency over 1993-2004, according to Weather Log, was very similar to that of Heathrow Airport (12-13 days per year) which is in the traditionally thunder-prone south-east of England. It was also much higher than that of Hurn near Southampton on the south coast. There are indeed more thunder-prone locations than Manchester in the Weather Log but they are invariably found in the east from Lincolnshire south (Waddington, Lowestoft, Hastings).

[Cheese Rice]

Ive always found Leeds does quite well from Thunderstorm, most of Eastern England should do well as from storms as there is nothing in the way of the precipitation (pennines/Welsh Mountains etc).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes I'd go along with that- Leeds is probably about level with Manchester, IMHO (I say that after having spent much of 2005 and 2006 there), it's only once you get into N Yorks that you start to see a substantial decline in thunder days as you head north up the eastern side of Britain. May, June, July, August and September 2006 all had significant T-storms in Leeds.

[DAVID SNOW]

More thunderstorms for us southerners in summer

This way my original post, that then somehow requied you to try and argue its accuracy and scientific credentials.

It was said as it reads, just a bit of banter between north and south.

But after all your posts,drawings,contacting the met office,the first paragraph of your last post.... Reads as..

"On average southern england does see more thunder days than northern england"

Now, is that not what i said in my light hearted post?

[fatyido]

Im not buying into this. Where I am in west Cambs it will be of RAIN, as per normal, both Thurs and Fri.

We have to have it nailed on here just to get a flurry. So when we are told its "maRgINAl" then all I do is rearrange the capitals...and hey presto....R A I N

[Thundery wintry showers]

That was your initial post, but while it might have been meant light-heartedly it was something of a jibe at northerners, and not fully accurate because it's not quite that clear cut as some parts of the "north" (depending on where you define "north") get more storms than parts of the south.

As i said, south of say the wash west, will have more thunder days than those north of said area.

Hope that helps you

That was the second post and it came across as pretty condescending.

In fairness if you substituted "Wash" with, say, "Teeside" then the generalisation would be a pretty good one.

[Roger J Smith]

That GFS run looks about as plausible as any given London newspaper story on the Winter Olympics, or any other subject matter besides ladies' breasts.

[pinball wizard]

Im not buying into this. Where I am in west Cambs it will be of RAIN, as per normal, both Thurs and Fri.

We have to have it nailed on here just to get a flurry. So when we are told its "maRgINAl" then all I do is rearrange the capitals...and hey presto....R A I N

Thats a rather pessimistic and somewhat unscientific way of viewing things. Being a bit further in land you stand as good a chance as many in the south of seeing something over the coming days and i'd not mind a wager with you (virtual of course) that come mid morning friday you have snowfall.

[peterf]

That GFS run looks about as plausible as any given London newspaper story on the Winter Olympics, or any other subject matter besides ladies' breasts.

i like the diagnosis.

[pinball wizard]

i like the diagnosis.

Yep, thats one most of us can relate to!!!

[MP-R]

Not sure what I think of the models at the moment - a sort of mish-mash up until the end of the month then the Atlantic barging in just in time for March as I would sort of expect really.

Though knowing this winter, the Atlantic has been pretty active since the middle of January and we've managed to get away from about 95% of it bar the odd stray front so perhaps the cold going on longer.

Either way, it would be good to get at least one more snow event out of this winter, whether it be tomorrow or during March.

[West Sussex Kate]

I live between Tenterden and Hastings and I love mushy peas!! Mnn yummy! - eat the mushy peas with frozen (then gently steamed) peas (plus added mint) and then make some homemade fried chips and eat the lot with imported German curry sauce (on the chips) along with a nice fresh piece of fish (or a roasted chicken quarter)

Jellied eels (eeew!) btw are eaten by a lot of 'DFL's in Hastings

mushy peas!!!! Not round here......to be honest though does sound exciting, our weather (snow wise) isn't!

[Kentspur]

I'm visiting a friend in Milton Keynes friday afternoon until sunday afternoon, would you expect a higher chance of seeing some of the white stuff up there again than down here in the snowshield which is Dartford, Kent? Would be nice to see something decent, as have''nt had as much snow as last winter at all here even central London 15-20 miles away has had more this winter!

[smarty81]

Uggggh this has to be the worst day for a long time, snow sleet and rain, really unpleasant walking the dog this morning .

I cut some grass on Tuesday, and believe me Spring is late this year, just snowdrops showing, I cant work so nothing earned much this week, so please whoever wants this stuff you are welcome, and you can enjoy it from the comfort of your offices or lounge with the gas heating on full. Spare a thought those of us that have to work outside, and also the animals that are starving to death, be careful what you wish for children

[La Bise]

I enjoy it on the hills and mountains of England, best place to be in winter if you like snow...Excellent news about the deer starving in Scotland, there are waaaay too many of them, with no natural predator and they are causing lots of damage to the eco-system. The arctic hares in the Peak District on the other hand are happy, ahem, bunnies, for once the white coat will hide them from flying predators rather than highlight them in hills devoid of snow...

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

mushy peas!!!! Not round here......to be honest though does sound exciting, our weather (snow wise) isn't!

Had them last night with homemade fish cakes!

I agree about the immediate weather - grey and wet doesn't set me on fire either!

[Eugene]

Uggggh this has to be the worst day for a long time, snow sleet and rain, really unpleasant walking the dog this morning .

I cut some grass on Tuesday, and believe me Spring is late this year, just snowdrops showing, I cant work so nothing earned much this week, so please whoever wants this stuff you are welcome, and you can enjoy it from the comfort of your offices or lounge with the gas heating on full. Spare a thought those of us that have to work outside, and also the animals that are starving to death, be careful what you wish for children

LOL..... it's a good job we don't get proper continental winters then isnt it, always amuses me north americans and europeans cope with snow much better than us but here all we have is a bunch of softies who can't cope with a bit of sleet or snow

Hasn't affected me this week at all had some nice sunny days with hail showers and its been very pleasant out walking, lots of sunshine from tomorrow afternoon onwards once this heavy snow leaves a nice covering tonight, cant wait to go out and take photos of the lovely countryside this weekend.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Eugene

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like there will, indeed, be a fair bit of non-descript weather about at times in the south, as usual with these frontal systems, which are often associated with steady light precipitation. Dull cool and wet away from the northern flanks of the bands I reckon- but brighter in Scotland and at times northern England.

@Smarty81- we discussed this before:

I'm amazed it's so dull and damp in much of south-east England at the moment- the models were showing potential for big convection this afternoon, though with an occluded front in the vicinity there was always the chance of it being dull rather than bright/showery.

[La Bise]

LOL..... it's a good job we don't get proper continental winters then isnt it, always amuses me north americans and europeans cope with snow much better than us but here all we have is a bunch of softies who can't cope with a bit of sleet or snow

Yep, my idea of the British as a bunch of hardy and stoical types has been truly put to rest this winter...Glad to see there are some left Eugene

[kent]

Yep, my idea of the British as a bunch of hardy and stoical types has been truly put to rest this winter...Glad to see there are some left Eugene

The christmas pudding im afraid, people dont know what its like to be cold. I was born in 1944 and the winters then it seemed to me were severe. Yes even in my location in Poole in Dorset. As one of eight children we had to be content with a paraffin heater strategically placed in the hall for warmth at night. Newspaper stuffed in cracks in the floorboards to keep out the draught. Ice that formed on the inside of the windows when you awoke in the morning. All huddled around a measly coal fire in the evenings. And yet we were happy with our lot and never complained because everyone else was in the same boat. People talk about the cold winter of late being superb but as a snow lover it hasnt even come close to some of my memories as a child. It seemed a magical time when just like the xmas carol good King Wenceslas the snow really was lying deep crisp and even and the frosts were certainly cruel. I remember the crunch under foot when you walked on the frost covered snow, the icicles on the trees that shone under the street lamps. You may laugh when you read this and if they were the good old days then you can stick em where the sun doesnt shine lol. But then I was fortunate enough to remember 63 when you were driving through tunnels of snow because there was no where else for the ploughs to put the snow. So when people talk of this being a memorable winter my reply is it doesnt even come close. Dont really know where to place this post but if others out there are remotely interested perhaps we could share some of our memories of cold winters gone by.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yep, my idea of the British as a bunch of hardy and stoical types has been truly put to rest this winter...Glad to see there are some left Eugene

It must depend on what circles you're involved in, and it's also worth noting that the people who are most likely to comment a lot on the wintry weather are the ones who feel strongly about it.

I've seen quite a few people on N-W, within the more business-oriented working environments, noting that most people in the workplace were complaining repeatedly about the wintry weather. That doesn't appear to be the case at UEA where most people have just got on with their lives, students and staff alike. Most of the people I know from Tyneside have done likewise. I think the media in particular makes us out to be more "soft" as a nation than we really are.